比特币有大行情？科普讲解美国证交会在上周末的决定

目前，比特币处在了关键的节点。美国证券交易委员会即将公布一项决定，它可能会对一大批新资本敞开大门，改变许多投资者对于数字货币的看法。

美国证交会做出这项决定用了三年多的时间，结果最晚将于本周五公布。下文将用通俗易懂的语言阐述未来会发生什么，这项决定为何如此重要，又将对比特币的价格产生怎样的影响。

证交会要做出什么决定？

证交会需要决定BATS是否可以调整规定让比特币为标的的交易所交易基金（exchange traded fund，ETF）上市，它可以让人们像购买普通股票一样购买比特币。该ETF名为Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF，它由文克莱沃斯兄弟创立。他们曾经与马克•扎克伯格争夺过Facebook的控制权，如今拥有大量比特币。

为什么这次ETF如此重要？

关键在于流动性。尽管购买比特币的渠道有很多，但许多投资基金只能持有符合某些监管标准（例如获得证交会许可）的资产。如果证交会通过比特币ETF，希望在投资组合中加入比特币的资金经理就可能参与进来。与此同时，数百万普通人也能通过这种简单的新方式购买数字货币。以下这段话选自比特币分析网站BitMex，我找不到更好的语言来描述这一利好了：

如果证交会批准BATS调整规定，美国形形色色的散户都能通过受到监管的ETF参与投资比特币。能交易比特币的合规资金将迅速增长。许多人预测过流入比特币的资金数额。总而言之，这个量是巨大的。

我们什么时候，在哪里能看到决定？

证交会必须在3月11日以前做出决定，11日是周六。也就是说周四或周五就能得知结果。

据法律公司Alston & Bird的可替代资产专家布莱克•艾斯蒂斯介绍，结果将会发布在证交会的网站，所有人都可以看到。

证交会通过的概率有多大？

五五开。相信证交会会通过ETF的人认为，文克莱沃斯的律师非常高明，而且较之两年前，比特币现在已经更加主流。如今，包括监管者在内，了解比特币及其机制的人已经多了许多。人们也能感觉到比特币ETF只是迟早的事情。

另一方面，悲观主义者认为两大问题可能导致证交会拒绝提案。首先是文克莱沃斯准备如何操作。ETF将使用文克莱沃斯控制的公司来发掘和储存支撑股价的比特币，这让许多人感到不安。另一点担心在于比特币本身。这种数字货币的价格波动巨大，部分原因在于比特币抢劫和内部人员的噱头。艾斯蒂斯称，证交会可能担心通过ETF会导致新人涌入催生比特币泡沫，而这种泡沫将会炸裂。

艾斯蒂斯表示：“一些人害怕这会给比特币持有者找到让傻瓜接盘的好机会。”

它将对比特币的价格产生怎样的影响？

比特币正在经历又一次猛涨，接近了每单位1,300美元的历史新高——比一盎司的黄金更贵。这其中可能反映出投资者对于证交会通过ETF的乐观，这个价格已经部分体现了未来价格的上涨。虽然如此，仍有普遍观点认为如果证交会大开绿灯，比特币的价格短期内还将疯狂上扬。

如果证交会否决了提案，对比特币将会产生负面影响，不过可能不会太大。原因在于，另有两个比特币ETF上市的申请已经提交。其中一个是巴里•希尔伯特申请的Bitcoin Investment Trust，他是数字货币领域的知名人物。另一个是SolidX，在确保比特币资产安全上表现突出。

正如上文所说，人们普遍认为，通过某种形式的比特币ETF是迟早的事，因此证交会就算驳回文克莱沃斯的提案，也只是比特币的一次暂时的挫败。

我应该买比特币吗？

这件事只有你自己可以决定，而且最好是在大量调研之后。如今，许多人都把比特币看作投资组合中的一种可选资产。不过比特币的价格波动很大，也有严重下跌的倾向，所以如果你倾向于规避风险，那它可能不适合你。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. Any time now, the Securities and Exchange Commission will issue a decision that could throw open the door to a flood of new capital, and change how many investors regard the digital currency.

The SEC's bitcoin decision, which is over three years in the making, is due by Friday. Here's a plain English guide to what might happen, including why the decision is so important and how it could affect the price of bitcoin.

What's the SEC decision?

The agency must decide if the BATS stock exchange can change its rules to offer a bitcoin ETF (exchange traded fund), which would let people buy bitcoin like a common stock. The ETF—called the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF—is the creation of the Winklevoss brothers, who once fought Mark Zuckerberg for control of Facebook, and now own a large stock of bitcoins.

Why is this ETF such a big deal?

It's all about liquidity. While there are plenty of places to buy bitcoin, many investment funds can only hold assets that meet certain regulatory standards—such as approval from the SEC. If the agency approves the ETF application, money managers who want to include bitcoin in their portfolio are likely to jump in. Meanwhile, millions of ordinary people will have an easy new way to buy the digital currency. I can't really phrase it any better than this quote from BitMex, a bitcoin analysis site:

If the SEC approves the Bats rule change, all manner of American muppet retail investors can yolo into Bitcoin via a regulated ETF. The pool of eligible money that can easily obtain exposure to Bitcoin will dramatically rise. There are various predictions about the amount of money that could flow into Bitcoin. In short, it will be Yuge.

Where and when will we see the decision?

The SEC is obliged to make the decision by March 11, which is this Saturday. That means the ruling is almost certain to come out on Thursday or Friday.

According to Blake Estes, an alternative asset expert at the law firm Alston & Bird, the decision will appear on this SEC web page, and everyone will find out at the same time.

What are the odds the SEC says yes?

People are calling this a coin toss. Those who think the SEC will approve the ETF point to the skillful work carried out by the Winklevoss lawyers, and to the fact that bitcoin is far more mainstream than it was even two years ago. Today, many more people—including regulators—are familiar with digital currency and how it works. There is also a sense that a bitcoin ETF is sooner or later inevitable.

Pessimists, on the other hand, can point to two sets of concerns that could lead the SEC to give the thumbs down. The first of these relates to how the Winklevoss intend to run the operation. Some people are uneasy that the proposed ETF would use Winklevoss-controlled businesses to source and store the bitcoins that would back the shares. The other set of concerns lie with bitcoin itself. The digital currency has been subject to wild price fluctuations, driven in part by heists and insider antics. According to Estes, the SEC may worry the agency's approval of an ETF could lead to a bubble inflated by bitcoin novices—a bubble that could then pop.

"Some fear it could be a g ood opportunity for legacy players to find the next sucker to take it off their hands," said Estes.

How will this effect the price?

Bitcoin has been on another tear of late, nudging a record of $1,300 per unit—more than an ounce of gold. Some of this likely reflects investor optimism the SEC will approve the ETF, meaning a future price rise is partly baked-in. Nonetheless, there are broad expectations the short term price of bitcoin will go crazy if the SEC says yes.

If the SEC says no, it will have a negative effect, though probably not a very dramatic one. The reason is there are two other ETF application before the agency. One is called the Bitcoin Investment Trust, and was developed by Barry Silbert, a well known figure in the digital currency world. The other, called SolidX, is distinct in that proposes to insure its bitcoin assets.

As noted above, there is a general feeling that approval for a bitcoin ETF of one type or another is inevitable, and so a rebuff by the SEC to the Winkelvoss proposal would only be a temporary setback.

Should I buy bitcoin?

That's something only you can decide—preferably after a lot of research. Today, many people see bitcoin as another alternative asset class to add to a diversified portfolio. But bitcoin has an extremely volatile history, and has been prone to spectacular crashes, so if you're averse to risk, it's probably not for you.