蚂蚁金服准备上市，不再在乎华尔街

从中国互联网刚刚起步开始，中国科技创业者最大的牢骚之一就一直是西方投资者不理解他们。搜狐创始人张朝阳是中国的科技先锋之一。2006年接受我采访时，他曾就此做了一次经典吐槽。这篇报道也成了《财富》杂志最早描写中国国家防火墙之内情形的文章之一。当时张朝阳忿忿地说：“我被迫与之打交道的一群投资者都不住在中国，不会说中文，甚至都没看过我的网站。他们想谈的只是下个季度的财务报表，或者怎么复制一些美国的经营模式。”

11年后，这仍是中国科技创业者普遍哀叹的问题，而他们或许是有道理的。大家可以回想一下上周四阿里巴巴公布季报后华尔街的反应。这家中国电子商务巨擘披露，在截止3月31日的季度中实现净利润15.5亿美元，接近上年同期净利润的两倍。这是好消息，对吧？嗯，国际投资者并不以为然。当天上午阿里巴巴的股价下挫了5%以上。为什么呢？这显然是因为阿里巴巴0.64美元的每股收益没有达到分析师的预期，差了0.01美元。

后来，阿里巴巴的股价出现反弹，原因是人们意识到净利润略低于预测值也许没什么关系。该公司正在投资的数据存储和娱乐等其他领域预计将推动今后的增长。同时，让市场感到欣慰的是阿里巴巴的季度收入达到了56亿美元，同比增长60% ！（阿里巴巴这个季度“令人失望”的净利润是亚马逊同期业绩的两倍，其收入增速差不多是亚马逊的三倍。）

今年1月以来，阿里巴巴的股价几乎上涨了40%，目前在123美元左右，从而让马云夺回了中国首富宝座。大家则可以看出为什么马云以及阿里巴巴的其他创始人也许会同情罗德尼•丹杰菲尔德。

长期以来，阿里巴巴和国际投资者的关系一直是爱恨交织，以前股价下跌只是双方又一次闹别扭。马云不屑于股东最了解情况的英美观点已经不是什么秘密。他最著名的一句话出现在2009年：“如果愿意，就让华尔街投资者诅咒我们吧。”2014年，马云和阿里巴巴另一位创始人蔡崇信放弃了在香港上市的计划，原因是香港监管部门态度犹豫，未能修改法规以便阿里巴巴的创始人保持在董事会的多数席位。

相反，马云和蔡崇信选择在纽约证交所上市，后者乐于为他们的IPO申请献上祝福。2014年9月，阿里巴巴登陆纽交所，融资250亿美元，迄今为止仍是世界上规模最大的IPO。但蜜月期很短暂。阿里巴巴上市当天的开盘价为68美元，当年11月升至120美元的高点，随后一年则持续滑坡，原因是外界担心中国政府可能打击阿里巴巴上贩卖假冒产品的行为以及中国经济增速放慢。2015年9月，《巴伦周刊》的封面文章指责阿里巴巴在账目上动手脚，批评其管理层只会大肆收购，而且预计当时约64美元的阿里巴巴股价将再下跌50%。一贯唱衰中国的吉姆•查诺斯随后落井下石，称阿里巴巴的账目“是我见过的最可疑的账目之一”。

那么当蚂蚁金服，也就是马云的在线金融服务旗舰准备上市时，他并不急于再次寻求华尔街的帮助也就不会让人感到意外了。这次，马云决定在A股上市，这里关于透明度的规定远没有美国股市那么繁琐，投资者的要求也要低得多。

蚂蚁金服首发上市一直是全球最受期待的IPO之一。这家公司提供的技术让消费者得以在阿里巴巴的电商网站上购物，它还经营着余额宝，后者已成为全球最大的资金市场基金。蚂蚁金服还拥有在线银行——网商银行。2016年4月完成新一轮融资后，蚂蚁金服的价值达到600亿美元，是Snap的两倍。外界普遍预计蚂蚁金服将在今年晚些时候上市。

对了，中国资本市场还有其他要权衡的问题。《金融时报》本周报道，蚂蚁金服的A股IPO至少已经推迟到了明年底。报道称，这次IPO仍在等待监管部门做出关键决断，但没人想在中国共产党下一代领导人浮出水面的年份承担责任。中国股市和信贷市场持续下挫也不是什么好消息。

目前在蚂蚁金服融资的问题上，马云已将硅谷风投机构和华尔街双双拒之门外，而是选择了中国国有金融机构，其中包括规模巨大的中国主权财富基金——中投公司。蚂蚁金服的IPO可能还要再等一阵子。但有如此体量的国内支持者撑腰，马云等得起，也经得起华尔街投资者随心所欲的大声诅咒。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

From the first days of China's Internet, one of the biggest gripes of China's tech entrepreneurs has been that Western investors just don't understand them. Sohu.com founder Charles Zhang, one of China's tech pioneers, launched into an epic rant on that subject when I interviewed him in 2006 for one of Fortune's earliest stories about life behind "The Great Firewall of China." "I have to deal with a bunch of investors who don't live in China, can't speak the language, and don't even look at my site," Zhang fumed. "All they want to talk about is the next quarterly earnings statement or how to replicate some business model from the U.S."

Eleven years on, that remains a common lament among China's tech founders. And maybe they have a point. Consider Wall Street's reaction last Thursday to quarterly financial results announced by Alibaba (NYSE:BABA). The Chinese e-commerce giant reported that, in the three months ending in March 31, it raked in $1.55 billion in net income—nearly double net income in the same quarter last year. Good news, right? Well, global investors weren't impressed. Alibaba's shares tanked more than 5% in morning trading. Why? Apparently because the company's 64 cent earnings-per-share ratio missed analysts' expectations. By a penny.

BABA's share price recovered later in the day as it dawned on folks that maybe it didn't matter if net income lagged a little. The company is investing in data storage, entertainment and other areas expected drive future growth. Markets also were mollified by the fact that revenue for the quarter shot to $5.6 billion, up 60% (!) year-on-year. (Alibaba's "disappointing" net income for the January to March quarter was double that of Amazon for the same period, and the Chinese company's revenue grew nearly three times faster than Amazon's.)

Since January, Alibaba's share price is up almost 40%, and now trades at about $123, restoring Jack Ma to his position as China's richest man. But you can see why maybe Jack and his co-founders might sympathize with Rodney Dangerfield.

Last Thursday's morning sell-off was only the latest tiff in Alibaba's long-running love-hate relationship with global investors. Jack has made no secret of his disdain for the Anglo-American idea that shareholders know best, most famously in 2009 when he declared: “Let the Wall Street investors curse us if they wish." In 2014, he and co-founder Joseph Tsai aborted plans to list on Hong Kong's stock exchange because regulators balked at changing Hong Kong's rules to allow Alibaba's founders to retain control a majority of the seats on the board.

Instead Jack and Joe took Alibaba's IPO to the New York Stock Exchange, which was happy to bless their proposal. Alibaba's September 2014 on the NYSE earned $25 billion, and remains the world's biggest IPO. But the honeymoon was brief. BABA's share price debuted at $68, surged to a high of $120 in November, then tumbled into a year-long slump, weighed down by concerns Beijing would crack down on Alibaba for trafficking counterfeit merchandise and the faltering growth of China's economy. A September 2015 cover story in Barron's assailed Alibaba for cooking its books, faulted management for embarking on a reckless acquisitions spree, and predicted Alibaba's stock, then trading at about $64, could fall another 50%. China bear Jim Chanos piled on, attacking Alibaba's accounting as "some of the most questionable I've ever seen."

No surprise, then, that when it came time to float shares of Ant Financial Services Group, his online financial services powerhouse, Jack didn't rush back to Wall Street. This time, he opted to list on China's domestic stock markets, where transparency requirements are far less onerous and investors far less demanding.

Ant's IPO has been among the world's most anticipated listing deals. The company provides the technology that enables customers on Alibaba's e-commerce sites to make purchases, and operates Yu'e Bao, a money-market fund that has become the world's largest. It also runs an online bank, MYbank. In its last financing round in April 2016, Ant was valued at $60 billion, double the value of Snap. The IPO was widely expected to happen later this year.

Alas, China's capital markets have other trade-offs. A report this week the Financial Times says Ant's China IPO has been postponed until the end of next year at least. The FT says Ant's IPO is stuck pending crucial regulatory decisions, which no one wants to take responsibility for in a year when China's ruling Communist Party is choosing its next generation of leaders. Continued turmoil in China's stock and credit markets doesn't help.

For now, to fund Ant, Jack has snubbed both Sand Hill Road and Wall Street in favor of state-controlled financial institutions from China, among them China's giant sovereign wealth fund, China Investments Corp. Ant may have to wait a while longer for an IPO. But with homegrown backers that big, Jack can afford to wait--and to let Wall Street investors curse as loudly as they like.