这5家中国公司的股票最被看好

洗衣机在大多数美国家庭都不起眼。消费者可能希望自己的洗衣机省电、省水，甚至“智能”，但并不会在意它长什么样。中国的情况有所不同——洗衣机代表着经济地位，特别是时尚的洗衣机。这就可以解释家电制造商小天鹅的产品审美了。这家公司推出了像复古机器人的“杀手级”金色洗衣机以及面向年轻父母的便携式米老鼠洗衣机。凭借住宅友好型设计，小天鹅已经成为中国第二大洗衣机厂商，2016年洗衣机销售额达到24亿美元左右。

很快，有机会在类似小天鹅的股票中淘金的美国投资者将大大增多。作为全球最知名的投资指数编制机构之一，MSCI今年夏天将A股纳入了它的新兴市场指数。此举证明更多中国公司在账目透明度和流动性方面达到了国际标准。它也意味着，从明年5月开始，222只像小天鹅那样的A股股票将通过新兴市场指数和交易所交易基金首次成为投资者持仓的一部分。

这将是一场天翻地覆的变化。目前，美国投资者持有的大多数中国公司股票都在美国或香港证交所上市。虽然中国两大证交所，也就是上海和深圳交易所在全球股市中的比重接近10%，但2016年美国股东在中国市场的持股量只有1036亿美元，占他们持股总量的很小一部分。不过，A股纳入MSCI指数后，这个数字预计将出现指数级增长，而且有些投资者目前已经开始增持A股，因为他们觉得来自指数基金的资金入场后A股价格将得到抬升。

In most American households, the washing machine keeps a low profile. Consumers may want their washer to be energy-efficient, water-saving, or even “smart,” but they don’t care how it looks. Not so in China, where a washer is a sign that you’ve arrived economically—especially if it’s stylish. That explains the aesthetic of Wuxi Little Swan. The appliance company sells a gold washing machine dubbed “Killer” that looks like a retro robot, along with a portable Mickey Mouse washer for new parents. It has ridden its apartment-friendly designs to become China’s second-biggest seller of washing machines, with sales of about $2.4 billion in 2016.

Before long, many more U.S. investors will get a chance to clean up on companies like Little Swan. This summer, MSCI, one of the most prominent creators of investment indexes, added “A-shares”—stocks that trade only on China’s domestic exchanges—to its emerging-markets index. The move was an acknowledgment that more Chinese companies meet international standards for accounting transparency and liquidity. And it means that, beginning next May, 222 A-shares like Little Swan will join investors’ portfolios for the first time, via their emerging-markets index and exchange-traded funds.

That’s a gravitational shift. Currently, most Chinese stocks owned by U.S. investors trade either on U.S. exchanges or in Hong Kong. Although China’s main domestic exchanges, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, account for nearly 10% of the global stock universe, U.S. shareholders owned only $103.6 billion worth of Chinese-traded stocks in 2016, a tiny fraction of their total holdings. But that number is expected to grow exponentially in the wake of MSCI’s move, and some investors are pouncing on A-share stocks today, assuming they’ll enjoy a price bump when money from index funds pours in.

大家应该效仿吗？怀疑者指出，目前并非买进中国股票的理想时点。楼市泡沫和不断膨胀的债务已经引发了暴跌即将到来的担忧。截至2016年年底，中国债务总额已经达到GDP的260%。同时，中国市场的波动幅度大于美国市场，部分原因是起主导作用的是散户，而不是在美国市场处于统治地位的银行、基金以及其他机构。不过，经验丰富的投资者仍在中国公司的股票，包括A股和其他股票中看到了机会，认为它们将在短期行情中有出色表现。

这样的机会在很大程度上来自中国的经济转型，也就是从工业增长驱动型经济转变为消费驱动型。许多最富足的消费者都会居住在布局紧凑的市中心，这就是上面提到的无锡小天鹅公司的观点。该公司的产品尺寸可定制，而且集洗衣——干衣功能于一身，可完美匹配小型公寓。共同基金公司铭基亚洲中国团队证券投资组合经理萧菊娴解释说，按需生产的业务模式让小天鹅降低了负债需求，这对投资者来说也有吸引力。

资产管理公司杰尼桑公司新兴市场证券投资经理阿尔伯特·郭预计，随着富裕程度的提高，中国的医疗保健支出将上升。世界银行的最新可用数据显示，2014年医疗保健开支占美国GDP的17.1%，但在中国GDP中的比重只有5.5%。郭还认为中国将在医疗保健创新方面取得成功，他说：“他们已经[见过]我们弄出来的烂摊子，而且不打算步我们的后尘。”这样的趋势可能有利于金融控股公司平安保险。多元化服务已经帮平安收集了逾8亿人的经济和健康数据，这应该让它可以更有效地为自己的医疗保健产品定价。就平安的创新而言，投资管理公司Driehaus Capital Investments证券投资助理经理里奇·蒂斯指出，平安有一款热门app，用户可以通过它跟医疗机构取得联系，还能在网上支付医疗费用。

并不是所有A股都只面向中国国内市场。蒂斯还看好海康威视，这家设在杭州的监控摄像机制造商价值410亿美元。中国的低制造成本让它获得了国际性优势，并在2016年实现海外收入14亿美元，是2012年的八倍。同时，海康威视的研发投入占收入的8%，同样令人侧目。

投资者还可以通过已经进入国际市场的中国股票把宝押在中国消费者身上。互联网巨擘阿里巴巴和腾讯主导着中国的网络生态系统，它们的多用途app可以购物，可以玩游戏，还可以进行电子支付。腾讯拥有约9亿活跃用户，阿里巴巴则控制着中国70%的电子商务市场。此外，香港投资管理公司普信股票投资专家尼克·比克罗夫特认为，在广告变现方面，阿里巴巴和腾讯可以做的都还有很多。也就是说，两家公司都有大幅提升收入的潜力。

杰尼桑Jennison Associates的阿尔伯特·郭认为，这种利润丰厚的大踏步迈进对中国大型科技企业来说不可避免。他指出，中国消费者走在了技术曲线前面，原因是中国迈进数字时代之际消费者的购买力正在上升。他说：“现在中国已经习惯于在电子商务、电子支付等领域看到快速采纳者。”而快速采纳对涉足其中的公司来说就可能意味着高增长。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

本文刊登在2017年8月1日出版的《财富》杂志上，题为《多方在中国买什么》。

Should you follow suit? Skeptics note that this isn’t the ideal time to buy Chinese equities. China’s frothy housing market and its escalating debt, which reached 260% of GDP at the end of 2016, have stoked fears of a looming slump. Its markets are also more volatile than America’s, in part because they’re dominated by individuals rather than by the banks, funds, and other institutions that rule in the U.S. Still, seasoned investors see opportunity in the A-shares—and other stocks too—among Chinese companies that are poised to ride out any short-term rockiness.

China’s transition to an economy driven by consumer spending rather than industrial growth is generating much of that opportunity. Many of the most affluent consumers will gather in tight-packed urban centers—an argument for the aforementioned Wuxi Little Swan, which customizes products by size and builds all-in-one washer-dryers that fit nicely in small apartments. Equally appealing to investors, explains Tiffany Hsiao, portfolio manager on the China team for mutual fund firm Matthews Asia, is that Little Swan’s build-on-request business model reduces its need to take on debt.

Albert Kwok, emerging-markets portfolio manager for Jennison Associates, expects Chinese health care spending to rise along with the country’s affluence. While health care represented 17.1% of U.S. GDP in 2014—the latest year for which World Bank data is available—it accounted for just 5.5% of China’s. Kwok also thinks China will be successful at innovating in the health care space. “They have [seen] the mess we have created” in the U.S., Kwok says. “And they don’t want to follow us.” Such trends could benefit the financial holding company Ping An Insurance . Ping An’s diverse suite of services has helped it gather financial and health data on more than 800 million people—which should enable it to more effectively price its health care coverage. Among its innovations, notes Rich Thies of Driehaus Capital Investments: a popular app that enables users to connect with clinics and pay medical bills online.

Not all A-share stocks cater solely to China’s domestic market. Thies also likes Hangzhou Hikvision, a surveillance-camera maker worth $41 billion. China’s low manufacturing costs give the company an edge internationally, and its revenue from outside China rose eightfold between 2012 and 2016, to $1.4 billion. And Hikvision dedicates an impressive 8% of revenue to research and development.

Investors can also bet on Chinese consumers through stocks that already trade globally. The Internet giants Alibaba and Tencent dominate China’s online ecosystems, offering multipurpose apps for shopping, gaming, and e-payments. Tencent has some 900 million active users, while Alibaba controls 70% of the country’s e-commerce market. But each could do much more to monetize its reach through advertising, says Nick Beecroft, equity portfolio specialist for T. Rowe Price in Hong Kong—meaning each has potential for huge new revenue gains.

Jennison’s Kwok thinks that kind of lucrative leap is inevitable for China’s tech giants. Chinese consumers are ahead of the technological curve, he argues, because the country jumped into the Digital Age just as they were gaining spending power. “China is now used to fast adopters in e-commerce, e-payments, and more,” he says. And fast adoption can mean rapid growth for the companies that tap into it.

A version of this article appears in the Aug. 1, 2017 issue of Fortune with the headline "Where Bulls Are China-Shopping."