不是金融股！特朗普当选后这些股票才是最大赢家

一年前，唐纳德·特朗普赢得大选出任美国总统，投资者也开始押注，在奉行贸易保护主义的共和党政府领导下哪些个股会是最大赢家。

投资者认定，既然特朗普承诺要“拯救”美国煤炭行业，能源企业定会受益。由于预期特朗普会增加基础设施方面的支出，钢铁生产商股价大幅走高。同时，因为特朗普支持废除金融监管法《多德-弗兰克法案》，高盛之类金融巨头发展空间可能增大。另一方面，投资者担心硅谷会因为特朗普拟推出的限制移民和反自由贸易政策而受打击。

那么，在特朗普当选之初做的这些预测之中，哪些料中了？哪些个股买对了？

一年后事实证明，押注英伟达之类半导体制造商的投资者收获颇丰。

特朗普当选以来，标普500指数累计上涨21%，而标普半导体精选行业指数同期涨幅超过41%，该指数追踪芯片制造企业，其产品广泛用于手机、电脑、游戏显卡和人工智能技术等。如下图所示，特朗普当选后表现最佳的九只个股之中，有四只都来自半导体板块，分别是应用材料公司 、泛林集团、 美光科技和英伟达。

几家欢乐几家愁。特朗普当选后表现最差的个股是能源公司和零售商，因为所谓“特朗普冲击”既没能提振疲软的油价，也没法缓解来自电商更激烈的竞争对实体店的冲击。

特朗普当选一年来，美国运动装生产商安德玛股价暴跌61%，跌幅在一众下挫个股中幅度最大。不过其股价重挫基本和白宫发布的政策无关，问题应该是消费者对“运动休闲”的兴趣大为降低。

美国大选以来，美股大赢家和大输家座次已经改变。虽然某种程度上跟白宫关系不大，但并不代表之前的“特朗普交易”已经崩盘。追踪金融业个股表现的指数标普500金融指数大选以来涨了32%。

同时，由于全球经济前景向好，总体来看投资者收益尚可。以标普500指数来看，特朗普当选以来美股累计涨幅达21%。（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审稿：夏林

In the days following then-nominee Donald Trump’s election a year ago today, investors placed their bets on the biggest winners under a Republican-led, protectionist leadership team.

Those investors decided energy companies would win under Trump’s promise to “save” the country’s coal industry. Steel makers soared on hopes of infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, financial giants like Goldman Sachs (GS, +0.57%) were expected to get a breather from the president-elect’s stance on deregulating Dodd-Frank. On the downside, investors worried that Silicon Valley would come in for a whipping once Trump enacted his anti-immigration and anti-trade policies.

So who got it right in the early days of president-elect Trump? Which were the best stocks to buy?

Well, as it turns out a year later, investors who bet big on semiconductor makers such as Nvidia (NVDA, -1.39%).

While the S&P 500 has gained 21% since Trump’s election, the S&P Semiconductor Select Industry Index, which tracks companies that make chips used in everything from cell phones and computers to gaming graphics cards and artificial intelligence technology, has gained over 41%. Notably, four of the nine companies in our chart (below) of best performing stocks since Trump’s election are in the semiconductor sector. They are Applied Materials (AMAT, +0.81%), LAM Research (LRCX, +0.98%), Micron Technology (MU, +0.57%), and Nvidia.

On the flip side, the worst stocks to buy since the Trump election are energy companies and retailers, as the “Trump bump” has not been able to stave off weak oil prices and or save physical stores from increased competition from e-commerce.

Athletics apparel maker Under Armour (UAA, +0.76%) leads the crowd of biggest stock market losers in Trump’s first year, having fallen 61% on issues largely independent of the White House’s influence. The trouble for Under Armour it seems is dying interest in “athleisure.”

Still, while the stock market’s biggest winners and losers have shifted since the election, and to an extent, decoupled from actions in the White House, that’s not to say early “Trump trades” were a bust. An index tracking the stock performance of financial companies, the S&P 500 Financials Index, has risen 32% since the elections.

Meanwhile, investors in general have benefited from a rosier global economic outlook. The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has risen 21% since Trump’s election.