美股牛市即将终结，投资者要不要离场？

上一次经济衰退恰逢史上最大熊市。从2007年10月顶峰到2009年3月谷底，标普500指数暴跌56%，全球股民眼睁睁地看着股市缩水11万亿美元。

然而，如果你在思考下次熊市是什么时候，记住这一点：大部分十年前离场的投资者都后悔了。如果在股市下跌时离场，意味着你要决定什么时候返场，才能抓住股市恢复的好时机。能准确判断熊市起止时间的投资者连一辆小货车都装不满，大部分人都判断不好这个时间点，这也是为什么大部分个人投资者跑不赢市场。

最近晨星（Morningstar）的一项研究犀利地讨论了这个问题。从1997年到2017年，标普500的年均回报率为7.2%。但如果你在市场表现最好的30天里离场了，不论是什么原因，你的股票年均收入就是-0.9%，而30天是这21年期间5217个交易日中非常小的一部分。

简单地说：过去一个世纪，市场上涨的年份是下跌年份的三倍，在这期间，只要买定不离场，一般情况下都能赢利。然而，即使是乐观主义者也会说，现在可以做些调整，以减轻股灾时的痛苦。

THE LAST RECESSION coincided with one of history’s worst bear markets in stocks. Between its peak in October 2007 and its trough in March 2009, the S&P 500 tumbled 56%, and shareholders worldwide endured a staggering $11 trillion in lost market value.

Still, as you mull the possibility of the next bear market, keep this in mind: Most investors who bailed out of stocks a decade ago regretted it later. Pulling money out of a declining market means having to decide when to jump back in to capitalize on a recovery. The number of investors who can correctly identify the beginnings and endings of bear markets can comfortably fit in a minivan, so most people flub this timing—which in turn is one big reason most individual investors underperform the markets.

A recent study from Morningstar frames the issue starkly. From 1997 through 2017, the S&P 500 returned 7.2% annually. But if you had been on the sidelines, for whatever reason, and missed the market’s 30 best days—a tiny fraction of the 5,217 trading days during that 21-year span—your stock portfolio would have lost 0.9% annually.

The bottom line: In a market that has registered three times as many up years as down years over the past century, staying invested usually pays off over time. Still, even optimists say there are adjustments worth making today that could ease the pain of a crash.

恢复平衡

很多投资者都根据自己的财务目标和风险承受能力进行资产配置，比如以50%的美股、25%的国际股票和25%的债券为目标。但是因为美股最近收益远超其他产品，上述配比对于很多人来说就不合适了，美国公司在他们的股票配置中占了一大部分。如果美元升值，考虑卖掉一些美股，买入外国股票。哪怕出现影响全球市场的经济放缓，“你也能花最少的钱得到最大的效果。”Stifel的市场战略师巴瑞·巴尼斯特说。

哪怕是在你的美股中，进行重新配置也是十分必要的：科技股表现强劲，加上其他领域股价的大幅下跌，你现在持有的硅谷股票可能有点太多了。摩根士丹利的首席美国证券战略师麦克·威尔逊说，在经济循环的这个阶段，公用事业、电信、必需消费品等行业的股票表现良好。

对债券要精挑细选

贝莱德的伊莎贝拉·玛蒂尔西·拉果说，几乎零风险的美国国债凭借其稳定上升的回报率，“极大地威胁了其它风险更高的债券”。因此减少购买高回报率的“垃圾”债券是明智之选，这种债券之所以回报率高，是因为发行公司的情况已经岌岌可危；也不要购买长期债券，因为如果经济形势出现不稳定，这些债券的价格会大幅下跌。哪怕是不起眼的货币市场也有2%的收益率，因此威尔逊说，短期债券是个“不错的选择”。

什么时候该稳妥行事

然而，有一种投资者应该无视“不要放弃股票”的原则。福斯特集团（Foster Group）的首席投资官肯特·克莱默建议，临近退休的人士要迅速行动，卖出股票，在货币市场里存上一两年的生活费或者买一两年的国债。克莱默解释道，你一定不想等到股票下跌的时候才被迫抛售，大衰退期间很多人的养老储备金就是这样蒸发的。即便如此，这条建议不能算是“选择最佳时机交易”，而是在市场前景看起来一片大好时的明智之举。（财富中文网） 

——报道：露辛达·沈、瑞安·德罗索

本文另一版本发表在2018年8月1日的《财富》杂志，标题为《狂欢结束时，应当去哪投资》

译者：Agatha

Recover Your Balance

MANY INVESTORS build portfolios around asset allocations based on their financial goals and risk tolerance—a target of, for example, 50% U.S. stocks, 25% international stocks, and 25% bonds. But because U.S. stocks have outperformed others by such big margins recently, those percentages are now out of whack for many, with American companies occupying more than their share of space. When the dollar peaks, consider selling some U.S. stocks and buying foreign ones. Even if an economic slowdown hurts markets globally, “you’ll get more bang for the buck,” says Stifel market strategist Barry Bannister.

It’s worth rebalancing within your U.S. portfolio too: The blistering performance of tech stocks, combined with significant price declines in other sectors, may mean you now own a little too much of Silicon Valley. Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, cites utilities, telecom, and consumer staples as industries whose stocks do well at this stage of the economic cycle.

Get Choosy About Debt

STEADILY RISING interest rates on nearly risk-free U.S. Treasuries “create serious competition for riskier securites,” says Isabelle Mateosy Lago, BlackRock’s chief multi-asset strategist. So it’s wise to reduce exposure to high-yield “junk” bonds, which pay higher interest because the issuing companies are on shakier footing, and to longer-duration bonds, whose prices can dip sharply when the economy is shaky. With even lowly money markets paying around 2%, short-term debt is “not a bad place to hang out,” says Wilson.

When To Play It Safer

THERE’S ONE GROUP of investors who should ignore the “don’t avoid stocks” rule. Kent Kramer, chief investment officer at Foster Group, recommends that people nearing retirement act soon and sell stocks, if necessary, to sock away one or two years’ worth of living expenses in money markets and short-term Treasuries, and an added five to 10 years’ worth in other bonds. You don’t want to be forced to sell equities when stock prices are falling, Kramer explains—that’s the bind that crushed many nest eggs during the Great Recession. That said, this advice doesn’t count as “market timing”: It’s a wise move even when the outlook is rosy.

—With reporting by Lucinda Shen and Ryan Derousseau

A version of this article appears in the August 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “Where To Invest When The Party Ends.”