投资美团等于投资1997年的亚马逊？

中国消费者可以在美团点评上订各种各样的美味——虾饺、辣鸡腿、大闸蟹。只要应用里点几下，嗖的一声，50多万美团送餐员当中一位就会出现在你家门口。人们还可以在美团上预定美发服务、酒店房间或电影票，还可以查看对餐厅的评价。每天美团都有一千多万活跃用户，成为中国最大的在线按需服务提供商。

但有一样东西美团无法提供（至少到目前为止），就是利润。过去三年里，这家总部位于北京的合资公司每年都在亏损。2017年美团烧钱接近30亿美元。而下周在香港上市时，其预期发行价对应的估值将超过450亿美元。

如果倒退几个月前看，没什么问题。全球投资者都愿意向亏损的中国科技初创公司投入数十亿计的资金，哪怕股权结构复杂，信息披露也不够透明。毕竟，中国中产阶层迅速壮大难道不是本世纪最重大的变化之一吗？投资美团等公司不就像1997年买亚马逊的股票吗？

近来，这些问题的答案似乎不那么肯定了。尽管美国科技公司一路高歌猛进，股价屡创新高，这个夏天中国科技明星企业都过得很不顺。中国两大科技巨头——阿里巴巴和腾讯的股价已从6月份的高点回落20%，阿里是因为外界担心其利润滑坡，腾讯则是受政府严控在线游戏销售影响。京东的股价也因为投资者担心业绩低迷而面临压力。近期，京东创始人刘强东在明尼苏达州涉嫌性侵被拘留，股价更是跌至19个月来低点。

6月份小米登陆香港交易所，是今年以来上市规模最大的中国科技公司，目前股价已回落到发行价水平。中国第三大电子商务平台拼多多7月份在纳斯达克上市后步履维艰，最近还出现了动物贩子在拼多多上出售濒危穿山甲的不利消息。另外，由于网约车司机奸杀女乘客，叫车服务巨头滴滴出行面临监管部门的严格调查，还有公众的怒火。

可以认为种种事件并不相关，只是碰巧各公司都遇到麻烦。但在我看来，这种现象可能反映出更大的趋势。过去三个月，各界对待中国科技行业不再那么宽容。经济正在减速，人们热议消费降级。中美贸易战使得人们对前景充满不确定性，政府对科技行业的弹压力度也前所未有。随着行业走向成熟，充满理想的创始人编织着增长和无限机遇的美好画卷已行不通，只有管理者具备严格执行力，且治理透明的公司成功的机会才更大。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Consumers in China use Meituan-Dianping to order all manner of delectables: shrimp dumplings, spicy chicken feet, hairy crab. A few taps on the app and, presto, one of Meituan’s more than 500,000 drivers is at your door. The service also is handy for booking a haircut, hotel, or movie ticket, and checking restaurant reviews. More than ten million people use Meituan each day, making it China’s largest on-demand online services provider.

There is one thing Meituan does not deliver (at least not yet): profits. The Beijing-based venture has lost money in each of the last three years; in 2017 it burned through nearly $3 billion. And yet, when Meituan lists in Hong Kong next week, it is expected to seek a share price implying a valuation of more than $45 billion.

Until only a few months ago, there was nothing odd about this. Global investors were happy to fork over billions for money-losing Chinese tech startups with convoluted ownership structures and murky disclosure practices. After all, wasn’t China’s burgeoning middle class one of the most profound developments of the 21st century? Shouldn’t investing companies like Meituan be considered an opportunity comparable to the chance to buy Amazon back in 1997?

Lately answers to such questions don’t seem so obvious. China tech stars have had a miserable summer—even as their American counterparts soar to record highs. Shares of China’s two tech giants, Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings, have tumbled 20% from peaks in June—the former hurt by concerns about declining profits and the latter dragged down by a government crackdown on the sale of online games. JD.com’s shares, already weighed down by investor concerns about weak earnings, have plunged to a 19-month low following founder Richard Liu’s arrest in Minnesota this week on rape charges.

Xiaomi, whose June debut on the Hong Kong exchange is the year’s biggest China tech listing so far, has slumped back to its IPO price. Pinduoduo, China’s third-largest e-commerce platform, has languished since listing on the NASDAQ in July—and won’t benefit from recent reports that its site is a favorite of animal traffickers selling endangered pangolins. Meanwhile, China’s ride-hailing powerhouse, Didi Chuxing, faces regulatory scrutiny and public outrage after a driver from one of its car-pool services raped and murdered a female passenger.

It’s tempting to dismiss all these mishaps as unrelated—a series of unfortunate events. But it feels to me like there’s something bigger going on. Over the past three months, China’s tech sector has become a much less forgiving place. The economy is slowing, consumers are hunkering down. The U.S.-China trade war has created a climate of uncertainty and Beijing is squeezing China’s tech sector more tightly than ever. As the industry matures, the advantage is shifting from companies with visionary founders who spin fancy yarns about growth and limitless opportunities to those run by solid execution-oriented managers operating in transparent governance structures.