2018是稳定币之年，2019年应有何期待

Tether、USD Coin、Gemini Dollar和Basis，安息吧。

如果说2018年是所谓的稳定币，或者价格与美元挂钩的加密货币之年，那么新的一年会带来什么呢？虽然不可能万分确定地描绘未来，但我们基于《财富》杂志专题通讯The Ledger的专家“茶叶占卜”做出了以下预测。

我们的2019年预期如下（这不是投资建议，或诸如此类的东西）。

1. Tether失宠。作为历史上最受欢迎的稳定币项目之一，Tether的偿付能力在这几年一直遭到怀疑。预计Circle、Coinbase、Gemini等其他与之竞争的稳定币将蚕食Tether曾经的垄断地位。就算Tether不像Basis那样在2018年年底停止运营，其主导性也可能随着投资者转向更放心的币种而下降。

2. Facebook发行WhatsApp币。2014年从PayPal挖来大卫·马库斯后，Facebook一直对支付很感兴趣。曾经负责短信产品的马库斯于去年成为这家传媒巨头秘密进行的区块链项目负责人。最近的消息显示他正在印度加速推出基于WhatsApp的支付产品。艰难的2018年过后，Facebook可能现在就需要一场胜利。

3. 监管部门打击“大玩家”。美国证券交易委员会（SEC）今年可能对一些更大的目标下手。该机构有可能将全球市值第二大的加密货币XRP认定为未注册证券，这样XRP的发行方Ripple就一定会被处以罚款。或者，美国证券交易委员会可能以未遵守反洗钱或了解客户原则为借口敲打某个加密货币交易所。我们敢说，对更多参与首次发行代币（ICO）的知名人物的罚款也已经准备好了。

4. 比特币ETF获批。随着行业的成熟，基于比特币的交易所交易基金（ETF）也具备了建立条件。泡沫过后，散户普遍冷静了下来。由纽约证交所相关人士建立的金融公司Bakkt正准备推出实物结算的比特币期货市场，目的是改善流动性。至少一位美国证券交易委员会的委员——海丝特·皮尔斯已经在鼓动为比特币ETF开绿灯。说到这儿，大家可以关注美国证券交易委员会下个月就投资公司VanEck设立比特币ETF的申请做出的决定。

5. 不确定因素仍将存在。加密货币价格不会很快回到2017年的高点。作为一种风险如此之高的资产，全球地缘政治紧张局势、剧烈震荡的股市以及经济衰退即将到来的言论都在影响着加密货币的投资前景，至少短期内是这样。值得注意的是，The Ledger内部也存在争议。我的同事杰夫·罗伯茨认为加密货币价格有可能更早地反弹。我则相信它还没有触底。

大家已经在新的一年里进行投资了吗？你们是否同意我们的预测？请把你们的想法、观点和预期告诉我们。我们将在下一期的通讯中刊载其中的佼佼者。（财富中文网）

本专栏文章最初刊登在《财富》杂志覆盖尖端金融与科技的专题通讯The Ledger上。

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Tether. USD Coin. Gemini Dollar. Basis (RIP).

If 2018 was the year of the so-called stablecoin, or price-pegged cryptocurrency, then what will the new year bring? While it’s impossible to predict the future with absolute certainty, here are five hypotheses based on The Ledger’s own expert tasseomancy. (Okay, we’ll admit we got this one wrong.)

Below are our 5 predictions for 2019. (This is not investment advice, yada, yada.)

1. Tether loses traction. For years questions have swirled about the solvency of Tether, historically one of the most popular stablecoin projects. Expect rival stablecoins from the likes of Circle, Coinbase, Gemini, and others to eat away at the monopoly Tether once enjoyed. Even if Tether doesn’t go the way of Basis, which shuttered at the tail end of 2018, its prominence will likely wane as investors flock to surer vaults.

2. Facebook mints WhatsApp coin. Facebook has been interested in payments at least since it poached David Marcus from PayPal in 2014. Formerly head of messaging products, Marcus spearheaded the media giant’s secretive blockchain initiative last year. Recent chatter suggests he is gearing up to release a WhatsApp-based remittances product in India. After a rough 2018, the company could use a win right about now.

3. Regulators slap a big kahuna. The Securities and Exchange Commission will take swings at bigger targets this year. Perhaps it will deem XRP, the world’s second-most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization, to be an unregistered security, in which case it will surely whack Ripple, the coin’s purveyor, with fines. Or maybe the SEC will bring down the hammer on a cryptocurrency exchange for failing to adhere to anti-money laundering and know your customer laws. We’ll bet there are penalties in store for more celebrities who pumped “initial coin offerings” too. #BlessUp

4. Bitcoin ETF wins approval. As the industry matures, conditions are ripening for a Bitcoin-based exchange traded fund, or ETF. Cooler heads are prevailing among retail investors, post-bubble. Bakkt, a financial firm brought to you by the folks behind the New York Stock Exchange, is preparing for the debut of a physically settled Bitcoin futures market, improving liquidity. At least one SEC commissioner, Hester Pierce, has agitated to green-light a Bitcoin ETF. Speaking of which, keep an eye on next month’s decision regarding VanEck’s application.

5. The hangover will last. Cryptocurrency prices will not reclaim their 2017 highs anytime soon. Global geopolitical tensions, volatile equity markets, and talk of a looming economic recession dampen the investment prospects for such a risky asset class, at least in the near-term. It’s worth noting that there is disagreement within The Ledger’s ranks here. My colleague Jeff Roberts thinks the price could rebound sooner. I believe we haven’t seen the bottom yet.

How are you placing your bets in the new year? Do you agree with our hunches? Disagree? Send us your thoughts, opinions, predictions. We will highlight the best submissions in a newsletter to come.

A version of this column first appeared in Fortune’s The Ledger, a newsletter covering the leading edge of finance and technology. Subscribe here.