熊市注定要来临，必须关注这5种数据
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收益率曲线 低利率预示坏消息的时候 3月底的5天里，3个月期美国债的收益率超过了10年期美国债，这给许多投资者的预期蒙上了一层阴云。这样的情况正是经济学家最为看重的衰退预兆，它有一个很难懂的名字，叫做收益率曲线倒挂。贝莱德全球固定收益部门首席投资官瑞克·莱德说：“它不光是最可靠的，其实也是唯一的。” 收益率曲线是长期（比如10年期）政府债券所付利息（“收益”）和短期（比如2年期或3个月期）政府债券所付利息之差。长期债券的收益通常较高，因为在回报大于他们付出的耐心和承担的风险时，投资者才愿意将一只债券持有10年之久。所以收益率曲线会在零以上。但投资者偶尔也会相信今后的利率和股票回报率将非常低，所以他们最好现在就买进长期债券，从而锁定现有收益率（尽管目前收益率也较低）并持有风险不像另类投资那么高的资产。投资者增持会造成长期债券收益率低于短期债券，从而使收益率曲线跌至零以下，也就是“倒挂”。这将使经济学家和投资者担心今后的局势将变差。 收益率曲线是可靠的衰退预兆吗？一位投资者说：“它不光是最可靠的，其实也是唯一的。” 美联储的经济数据显示，1957年以来的九次经济衰退前都出现了这种情况。此外，需要强调的只有一点，那就是持平或倒挂的收益率曲线至少发出过三次假警报。最近的一次是在1998年的互联网热潮期间，那次倒挂后美股继续上涨了55%，随后才见顶。正如股票独立研究机构CFRA首席投资策略分析师山姆·斯托沃在研究报告中所述：“虽然鳟鱼都是鱼，但并非所有的鱼都是鳟鱼。” 有理由认为可以把这条最新出现的“鱼”扔回水里去。摩根大通的凯利指出，历史上，收益率曲线倒挂前美联储都不得不把利率提高到远高于目前的水平。摩根史丹利投资管理公司董事总经理安德鲁·斯利蒙也称：“出现问题前得有泡沫，有过剩，有高于平均水平的增长率。”而其他专家认为，后金融危机时代该指标已经没有意义，原因是各家央行空前的购债行为已经扭曲了债券收益率差。但对于此项指标已不再适用的说法，斯利蒙说：“我的回答是‘告诉我为什么以前每次都是这样呢？’”焦虑的投资者往往看不到另外一种走向，那就是尽管收益率曲线再次倒挂而且一直保持倒挂状态，但衰退来袭前投资者仍可能有至少一年时间来调整投资。这样的调整也许意味着转向估值不那么高的股票，更多地保留现金以及趁其收益率较高时增持期限较短的债券。—Jen Wieczner |
The Yield Curve When low rates augur bad news For five days in late March, the three-month Treasury bill paid higher interest than the 10-year note—and cast a gloomy cloud over many investors’ outlooks. The event was an example of the one omen economists rely on more than any other to predict recessions: an obscure-sounding metric called the inverted yield curve. “Not only is it the most reliable, it’s really the only one,” says Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income. The yield curve is the gap between interest payouts (“yields”) on long-term government bonds—say, 10-year Treasuries—and yields on their short-term counterparts, such as the two-year note or three-month T-bill. Normally long-term bonds pay more, because investors are willing to hold on to a bond for a decade only if they’re compensated more for their patience and risk—so the curve is positive. But occasionally, investors become convinced that interest rates and stock returns will be so low in the future that they’re better off buying long-term bonds now, to lock in today’s yields (even if they’re relatively low) and own an asset that will be less risky than the alternatives. They buy more, driving yields below short-term rates; the yield curve goes negative, or “inverts”; and economists and investors fear bearish times ahead. Is the yield curve a reliable recession predictor? “Not only is it the most reliable, it’s really the only one,” says one investor. It’s a phenomenon that has preceded the past nine recessions since 1957, according to economic data from the Federal Reserve. There’s just one big caveat: Flat or inverted curves have also generated at least three false alarms—most recently during the dotcom boom times of 1998, when, after an inversion, the stock market proceeded to rise 55% before it peaked. As Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA, put it in a research note: “While all trout are fish, not all fish are trout.” There’s reason to think this latest fish is one to throw back. Kelly of J.P. Morgan notes that historically, the Fed has to raise interest rates much higher than they are today before the curve inverts. “You need a bubble, you need excess, you need above-average growth before we have a problem,” adds Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Other experts argue that the indicator is no longer meaningful in the post–financial crisis era, as unprecedented bond buying by central banks has distorted bond spreads. Still, when people tell Slimmon the predictor doesn’t apply anymore, he says, “My response is, ‘Explain to me why, every time in the past, this is consistent?’ ” One other trend that anxious investors often miss: Even should the yield curve invert again and stay inverted, investors will still likely have at least a year to adjust their portfolios before a recession hits. Adjusting might mean rotating into less highly valued stocks, keeping more in cash, and scooping up shorter-term bonds while their higher yields last. —Jen Wieczner |
