熊市注定要来临，必须关注这5种数据

中国消费者

忘掉GDP，盯紧零售商和游客

今年1月，苹果公司警告投资者说，作为该公司在增长方面最为倚重的市场，中国的消费增速正在放慢。此后短短一天内，苹果的市值就蒸发了740亿美元。不久之后，福特汽车和日本电子行业巨头松下的投资者也遇到了相似的“糟心日子”，而且原因也一样。这让人们再次意识到中国经济放缓的影响会有多么的广泛和严重。

问题在于怎样预见到中国经济将放缓。外界普遍认为，国家经济健康状况的常用指标GDP对中国来说并不可靠。地方政府实现中央制定的增长目标可以得到嘉奖，所以他们会报出让人眼前一亮的数字，而且许多评论人士都认为中央政府会熨平这些数据。芝加哥大学经济学教授谢长泰今年早些时候参与撰写的报告认为，中国将2016年GDP高估了15%左右。

就算以上数字可靠，也可以认为GDP无法让人全面把握一个快速变化的生态系统——在这个系统中，消费开支正在取代重工业的经济引擎地位。卡内基国际和平研究院高级研究员、世界银行前中国业务局局长黄育川说：“GDP并不能告诉你一个项目是好是坏，或者服务是否有用。它只是告诉你正在生产哪些东西，而且它是否包括那些鬼城和闲置道路也不重要。”

为找到更可信的指标，许多投资者都把目光投向中国国家统计局公布的居民开支和个人收入数据（该局网站上有英文信息，新闻报道中也可看到这些数字）。谢长泰认为，这些统计报告采用基于调查的方法，这提高了操控数据的难度。与此同时，职业投资者用更难找到的而且完全不受政府控制的消费者数据强化了这些信息。共同基金公司Matthews Asia投资策略分析师安迪·罗斯曼举的实例包括进出口统计数据和中国游客在日本的消费额。

一位中国专家说：“GDP并不能告诉你一个项目是好是坏，或者服务是否有用。”

现在中国消费者正在给世界讲什么故事呢？这个故事谨慎乐观，而且表明中国消费者不会是下一次衰退的诱因。2018年第四季度中国居民收入同比增速降至6.5%，是2016年以来的最低点。零售则依然活跃。实际上，咨询公司eMarketer预计今年中国零售支出将达到5.6万亿美元，历史上首次超越美国。说到要关注的警示信号，彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员尼古拉斯·拉迪认为，如果收入增速连续几个季度低于中国公布的GDP增速，投资者就应该感到担心。那就是降低新兴市场仓位的信号，因为这些地区的商业形势会随着中国起起落落。—Lucinda Shen

China’s Consumers

Forget GDP—keep an eye on retailers and tourists

Over the course of a single day this January, Apple lost $74 billion in market capitalization, after warning investors that spending in the country it most relied on for growth—China—was slowing. Investors in Ford Motor Co. and Japanese electronics giant Panasonic endured similarly ugly days soon after, for the same reason, a reminder of how broad and bitter the impact of a Chinese slowdown could be.

The question is how to forecast that slowdown. The usual barometer of a nation’s economic health, GDP, is widely seen as unreliable in China. Local governments are rewarded for hitting growth targets set by the central government and so self-report impressive numbers; many commentators believe the central government also smooths out the data. Chang-Tai Hsieh, an economics professor at the University of Chicago, coauthored a paper earlier this year making the case that China had overstated GDP by about 15% in 2016.

Even if the figures were reliable, GDP arguably can’t fully capture a rapidly changing ecosystem in which consumer spending is overtaking heavy industry as an economic driver. “GDP doesn’t tell you if a project is good or bad, or if services are useful,” says Yukon Huang, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and former China director at the World Bank. “It just tells you what is being produced—and it doesn’t matter if it’s ghost cities or roads that don’t go anywhere.”

For a more trustworthy indicator, many investors look at household expenditures and personal income data, published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (available on its website in English, as well as in news reports). Hsieh argues that those reports’ survey-driven methodology makes them harder to manipulate. Professional investors, meanwhile, reinforce that information with harder-to-find consumer data that’s completely outside the state’s control. Andy Rothman, an investment strategist at mutual fund firm Matthews Asia, cites import-export statistics and data on Chinese tourism spending in Japan as examples.

“GDP doesn’t tell you if a project is good or bad, or if services are useful,” says one China expert.

What story are Chinese consumers telling the world right now? It’s a cautiously upbeat one, and one that suggests they won’t be the trigger for the next recession. Income growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2018, to 6.5% year over year, its slowest pace since 2016. Retail activity remains robust: In fact, consultancy eMarketer expects Chinese retail spending to hit $5.6 trillion this year—-exceeding American retail spending for the first time ever. The warning sign to watch for: Nicholas Lardy, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says investors should worry if income growth lags China’s reported GDP growth rate over multiple quarters. That would be a signal to reduce exposure to emerging markets, where business fortunes rise and fall with China. —Lucinda Shen