熊市注定要来临，必须关注这5种数据
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公司债务 借多少钱才算过多？ 即使是在情况良好的时候，为巨额债务偿还利息也有可能削弱公司的盈利能力。面对不断减速的经济或持续上升的利率，公司受到的打击将是前者的两倍或三倍。咨询公司麦肯锡的统计显示，全球公司债务现已突破66万亿美元，而金融危机前的规模为29万亿，鉴于前述原因，了解这些数字会让人变得清醒。 美国公司总负债为15万亿美元左右，占美国GDP的73.5%，接近历史最高点。据证券行业估算，2018年底美国公司债券总额达到9.2万亿美元。同时，尽管利率一直很低，但很大一部分公司债务的风险和成本都较高。惠誉评级的数据显示，截至今年2月底，风险较大的垃圾级债券占美国公司债券的20%以上，另有46.7%的债券评级为“BBB”，比垃圾级高一档。 部分行业在债务中陷得较深。惠誉评级资深主管帕特里克·芬尼根指出，杠杆已经很高的行业包括医疗保健、制药、食品饮料和能源，而且其杠杆换取的很大一部分资金都用在了并购上。当然，杠杆本身并不坏，前提是公司利润够多。麦肯锡合伙人苏珊·隆德建议，要判断某家公司的负债是否可控，就要看它的利息覆盖率，或者说收入除以利息支出的商是否至少达到1.5。隆德估算，5%-6%的美国公司无法满足这项要求，在新兴市场，不达标的公司则多达25%。 第二个数字令人不安，原因是中国等新兴市场的公司特别依赖银行债务，也就是贷款。这类债务并不透明——投资者要弄清楚公司借了多少钱并非易事，而且银行债务更有可能采用“可变利率”，那就意味着如果市场中的利率出现较大范围的上升，源于银行贷款的利息支出就会增多。 独立投资管理公司Brown Advisory固定收益和投资经理汤姆·格拉夫建议，要想在利率突然上升时降低公司债务对自己的影响，就要避开债券ETF，原因是投资者因为利率上涨而争相抛售时，ETF的价格可能出现非常剧烈的震荡（可以考虑开放式共同基金或直接购买债券）。同时，在债券和股票市场都要寻找没有资产负债问题的公司——如果一家公司债台高筑，最好现在就转身离开。—Erik Sherman |
Corporate Debt How much borrowing is too much? Even in good times, servicing the interest on a hefty debt load can hurt a company’s profitability. In the face of a slowing economy or rising interest rates, you get a double or triple whammy. All of which makes it sobering to realize that global business debt now exceeds $66 trillion, up from $29 trillion before the financial crisis, according to consultancy McKinsey. Total U.S. corporate debt remains near its all-time high of 73.5% of GDP, at about $15 trillion. Corporate bond debt hit $9.2 trillion at 2018’s close, according to securities industry estimates. And although interest rates have been low, much corporate debt represents higher-risk, more-expensive borrowing. At the end of February, more than 20% of U.S. corporate debt was rated in riskier junk categories, according to Fitch Ratings, and 46.7% was classified BBB, one step above junk. Some industries are swimming in more debt than others. Patrick Finnegan, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, identifies health care, pharma, food and beverage, and energy among the sectors that have built up heavy leverage, with much of it going to fund mergers and acquisitions. Leverage isn’t inherently bad, of course, if a company’s earnings are strong enough. To figure out whether a given company’s debt load is manageable, McKinsey partner Susan Lund recommends checking whether its interest coverage ratio—revenue divided by interest payments—is at least 1.5. Lund estimates that 5% to 6% of U.S. companies fail to clear that bar, while as many as 25% of companies in emerging markets fall short. That latter figure is troubling because businesses in emerging markets, including China, are particularly dependent on bank debt—that is, loans. This debt is largely opaque—it’s not easy for investors to tell how much companies have borrowed. And bank debt is more likely to be “variable rate,” meaning that interest payments on the loans go up if rates rise more broadly in the market. To reduce exposure to corporate debt if rates spike, Tom Graff, head of fixed income and a portfolio manager at Brown Advisory, suggests steering clear of bond ETFs, whose prices could get very volatile if investors stampede out when interest rates rise. (Try open-end mutual funds or direct bond buying instead.) And in both the bond and stock markets, look for clean balance sheets: If a company has a heavy debt load, now’s a good time to walk on by. —Erik Sherman |
