衰退即将来临？预测指标已达2007年后最高

债券市场正在发出一个响亮的信号：即将出现衰退。

10年期美国国债的收益率已经跌破3月期国债的收益率水平。10年期国债收益率为2.245%，3月期为2.369%，目前的收益率差距是自2007年以来的最高水平。这种“倒挂”令人担忧，因为比起长期债券，投资者如果对短期债券出的价更低，唯一的原因是他们担心市场前景暗淡。

债券价格和收益走势相反，投资者因担心经济放缓以及美中贸易战继续，导致债券价格飙升（收益率下降）。同样的担忧导致股市暴跌。

专家说，不要忽视债券市场的响亮警告，但也不要惊慌失措。Nuveen公司的固定收益策略主管托尼·罗德里格兹说：“了解债券市场向你传达的信息，了解其中的原因，做出你自己（关于风险偏好）的决定。”倒挂的收益率曲线“向更广阔的市场表明，经济市场正在走弱。这就是它发出的信号，你不能忽视。”该公司管理的资产为9890亿美元。

在此期间，市场“将走在市场前面”，但罗德里格兹并不认为即将迎来经济衰退。他说，如果贸易谈判继续，看不到结束的希望，就要调整你的投资组合，确保你没有把大多数资金都投在了高风险或低风险的资产上。保持居中。“向更优质、流动性更强、更多样化的投资组合调整。”他建议道。

现在的债券市场是一个有吸引力的投资市场吗？芝加哥Ariel Investments的副董事长查尔斯·鲍勃林斯科伊并不这么认为。他说，相较于收益率跌至2.21%低位的10年期美国国债，“能源、银行和医疗保健领域一些优质、安全的股票股息要高得多。”他举了强生、埃克森美孚和摩根大通的例子，这些股票的股息在稳步增长。“现在不是把钱投入债市的好时机。”他说，“如果你害怕股市，那么持有现金总没有错。现在不是购买10年期债券的好时机。”

债券投资者担心持续紧张的贸易局势将损害经济，迫使美联储降息来推动经济增长。鲍勃林斯科伊表示，得益于低通胀、低失业率、工资增长、消费者信心提高及其他因素，他认为这种情况不会发生。“我和大众的看法有点不太一样。”他说，“除非经济真正疲软，否则我们不太可能降息。”

5月30日公布的数据显示，美国第一季度修正后的经济增长率为3.1%，超过分析师预计的3%，投资者对经济衰退的担忧情绪因此有所缓解。美国商务部此前预估的增长率为3.2%。

鲍勃林斯科伊对债券市场作为衰退预测指标的“杰出声誉”持怀疑态度（经济衰退的定义是，GDP连续两个季度出现负增长）。“我认为债券投资者没有预言水晶球，其他人也都没有。”他说，“经济衰退是难以预测的，除非你已经处于经济衰退中。”鲍勃林斯科伊说，2001年9月11日恐怖袭击发生后，收益率曲线倒挂，美国经济发生衰退；但在“9·11”之后经济会受到冲击，这实在算不上什么先见之明。“30年来，出现过三四次收益率曲线倒挂、经济衰退的情况。我不认为这个数据特别有说服力。”

投资者无疑希望他是对的。但是，至少在现在这种情况下，不要说债券市场没有提前警告你。（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha

The bond market is sending a loud signal: There’s a recession on the horizon.

Yields on 10-year U.S. treasuries have fallen below yields on three-month government notes. With yields on the 10-year at 2.245%, and yields on the three-month at 2.369%, the current yield gap is the widest it has been since 2007. Such “inversions” are worrisome since the only reason investors would pay less for short-term bonds than long-term ones is if they fear the future is bleak.

Bond prices and yields move in opposite direction, and investors have sent bond prices soaring (and yields falling) on fears the economy is slowing and the U.S.-China trade war will drag on. Those same fears have caused the stock market to slump.

Don’t ignore the bond market’s loud warning, but don’t panic over it say experts. “Understand what the bond market is telling you and why, and then make your decision’” about your appetite for risk, said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen, which has $989 billion in assets under management. The inverted yield curve is “telling the broader markets that economic markets are weakening. That’s the signal and you can’t ignore it.”

The market “is going to get ahead of itself” in the meantime but Rodriguez doesn’t see a recession coming. If trade talks continue with no end in sight, rework your portfolio so it’s not stacked with mostly high risk or low risk investments, he said. Stick to the middle ground instead. “Move in the direction of higher quality and greater liquidity and a more diversified set of investments,” he recommends.

Is the bond market an attractive place to put your money right now? Charles Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments in Chicago, doesn’t think so. He said there’s a number of “top-quality, safe names in energy, banking and health care that pay significantly higher dividends” than the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which fell to as low as 2.21%. He cited Johnson & Johnson, Exxon Mobil Corp. and JP Morgan Chase & Co., each offering dividends that have increased steadily over time. “Now is not a great time to put money into bonds,” he said. “If you’re afraid of the stock market, then there’s nothing wrong with cash. It’s just not a good time to buy 10-year bonds.”

Bond investors are worried that continuing trade tensions will hurt the economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to help boost growth. Bobrinskoy said he doesn’t see that happening thanks to subdued inflation, low unemployment, wage growth and strong consumer confidence, among other factors. “I’m a little bit of an outlier,” he said. “It’s unlikely we’ll have a rate cut unless we have real weakness in the economy.”

Investors got a reprieve from recession fears with data out on May 30 showing the U.S. economy grew at a revised 3.1% rate in the first quarter, beating the 3% expected by analysts. The Commerce Department had earlier estimated growth at 3.2%.

Bobrinskoy is skeptical of the bond market’s “extraordinary reputation” as a recession predictor (a recession being defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth). “I don’t believe bond investors have any crystal ball and no one else does, either,” he said. “It’s very hard to predict downturns in the economy until you are already in it.” After the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, the yield curve inverted and the U.S. had a recession, Bobrinskoy said. It was hardly a prescient prediction that the economy would take a hit after 9/11, he said. “It’s been about three or four times in 30 years where the yield curve inverted and we got a recession. I don’t find that particularly powerful.”

Investors are no doubt hoping he’s right. However, at least in this case, don’t say the bond market didn’t warn you.