沙特阿美上市在即，投行估值分歧巨大

在无数人的翘首期盼下，沙特阿美石油公司在上周末终于宣布了该公司即将在沙特证券交易所上市的计划。作为全球最赚钱的一家公司，沙特阿美很有可能创造史上最大规模IPO的纪录。但围绕该公司的上市，目前仍然有很多问题尚未得到解答。

首先是投资者对这家全球最大石油生产商的估值毫无头绪。各大投行对沙特阿美的估值产生了严重分歧，有的给出了2.3万亿美元的高估值，有的还不到它的一半，只报出了1.2万亿美元。高盛算是报得比较高的一家。高盛也是沙特阿美选定的27家承销商之一。

即便沙特阿美的IPO价格落在了比较低的区间，它仍然将是有史以来规模最大的IPO，几乎达到了阿里巴巴（2014年上市）的5倍。

收益大过苹果和微软

沙特阿美的强大是勿庸置疑的。2018年，该公司的营收达3560亿美元，净利润达到1110亿美元。（是的，有些公司要等到盈利后才敢去IPO。）这个数字甚至超过了最近一个财年微软和苹果净收入的总和。

作为一家国有企业，沙特阿美的单日最大石油产量在1200万桶上下，约占全球石油总产量的八分之一左右。

另外，沙特阿美今年还同意以690亿美元收购沙特基础工业公司（SABIC）的多数股权，从而成为了全球化工行业的一个重要参与者。

凭借如此雄厚的资本，沙特阿美绝对称得上是“沙特王冠上的一颗明珠”。沙特阿拉伯近几年一直在讨论推动该公司的部分资产上市。而上市对于这样一家公司来说，也算是一场革命性的转型了。

市场估值未达到王储要求

沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼希望通过沙特阿美的上市融资，帮助国家逐步摆脱对石油收一的过分依赖，实现经济的多样化转型。他曾经自信地表示，沙特阿美的估值至少应该在2万亿美元以上。沙特阿美原计划在海外上市，但这样的话，该公司的一举一动都会被国际投资者放在显微镜下看。现在沙特已经决定搁置赴海外上市的计划，改为先在本国的沙特证券交易所上市。

沙特阿美在上周日公布上市计划时，并未透露打算上市销售的股份比例，不过外界认为，沙特阿美此次抛出的股份应该只有几个百分点，低于最初设想的5%的比例。这些问题在沙特阿美于11月9日公布招股书时应该会得到澄清。而股票的正式发行则要等到12月了。

英国贸易公司IG的首席市场分析师克里斯·比彻姆表示，据他听说，沙特人自己对沙特阿美的估值大约在1.5万亿美元左右，这也基本符合IG公司的预期。

他表示：“我认为，沙特人不会让它的估值下降到1.2万亿美元左右，因为这样对公司的声望影响太大。但是他们也不会让它的估值达到2万亿美元的高位，因为在这个水平上，人们就会有很多疑虑。”

不过他也对《财富》杂志表示，现在还很难说1.5万亿美元的估值是否现实。

“这个估值是否包含了对地缘政治危机或者对沙特政局风险的足够的风险溢价？可能没有。当然了，如果它能够每天产出1160万桶石油，人人都会想来分一杯羹的。”

他认为，只要沙特阿美的发行价定得不是太高，这次IPO成功的机率还是很大的。鉴于该公司在石油行业举足轻重的地位，很多大型国际投资者对它也会有兴趣。不过他也补充道：“如果你是一只规模比较小的基金，或是一只主要关注国内的基金，你还是要三思而后行。”

沙特阿美的首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔在上周日表示，沙特阿拉伯已经做出了推动沙特阿美上市的决定，以促进经济多元化，增强本国股市的流动性，提高沙特吸引国内外投资的能力。

上市还能提高沙特阿美的国际知名度。“作为一家上市公司，必须公开大量的信息，到时会有很多分析师审查我们的数据，并且与其他上市公司做比较。我们很乐意去做这样的比较，因为作为一家公司，我们对自己的成绩是很骄傲的。”纳赛尔表示。

投资风险：气候变化和人权问题

上市公司吸引投资者的主要手段之一是分红。沙特阿美在这方面也不会令人失望。预计每年，该公司将向投资者派发至少750亿美元红利。

目前不太确定的，是该公司的资债情况。沙特阿美的利润与国际油价密切相关。不过今年以来，由于供给过剩、中美贸易争端和全球经济增长疲软等问题，全球油价也始终趋于疲软。可以想见，等它上市后，它的股价走势也会与油价息息相关。

另外，该公司的碳排放量也是一个不容忽视的问题。投资者可能会想，从长远来看，各国都在大力削减温室气体排放，全球汽车市场正在加速电动化，可再生能源扮演的角色也越来越重要，在这样的大背景下，大型石油企业的前景还能看涨吗？

另外，投资沙特阿美也是有一定的政治风险的。比如今年9月，也门胡塞武装用无人机袭击了沙特阿美的两座石油加工厂，直接导致沙特全国的石油产量被腰斩，油价飙升。不过到了10月初，沙特的石油产量已经恢复到正常水平，全球油价也已经下跌，并趋于稳定。

另外，沙特阿拉伯的人权问题也吸引了国际社会的普遍关注。去年，沙特记者贾马尔·哈苏吉在沙特驻土耳其伊斯坦布尔领事馆内被杀害，据说下手的是沙特的特工。此事引起了国际社会的强烈愤慨，并直接危及了沙特的经济多元化计划。

在上周日的新闻发布会上，当被问到投资沙特阿美是否安全时，该公司的董事长亚塞尔·阿尔-鲁玛扬表示，沙特阿拉伯会保护股东的权利，投资沙特阿美是很安全的。他表示：“我认为不仅是沙特阿拉伯，整个世界都会关注这个地区以及这家公司的安全问题。”

分析人士指出，押注沙特阿美，就相当于押注了整个沙特阿拉伯王国。

今年6月，伦敦政治经济学院的比较政治学副教授斯蒂芬·赫托格曾经指出，沙特阿美已经承担了“越来越多与石油无关的国内发展任务，获得了越来越多的国际投资，并且将间接地为沙特政府筹集巨额债务”。

赫托格在学术期刊《牛津能源研究所》（Oxford Institute for Energy Studies）上写道：“沙特阿美的国有属性，既反映了它的实力，也给了它相当大的政治资本。但是这种属性同时也带来了大量的非商业性的义务，而这些义务往往不是它自己造成的。”

在这篇文章中，赫托格还写道：“2009年，沙特阿美被要求在吉达市建一座运动场和体育城……一些观察人士已经怀疑，它是否正在变成一个‘代理政府’。”

换句话说，对于有意投资沙特阿美的投资者来说，沙特阿美绝非一家通常意义上的“独角兽”公司。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

The world’s most profitable company, Saudi Aramco, has left many questions unanswered after announced last weekend its long-awaited plans to list shares on the Saudi stock exchange in what will likely be the world’s biggest-ever IPO.

Most prominently, investors are none the wiser about how an IPO would value the world’s biggest oil producer. Investment banks’ estimates of the oil giant’s valuation vary wildly—anywhere from $2.3 trillion to roughly half that, at $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs comes in on the high end of that range. It’s also one of the 27 banks Aramco chose to market the deal to investors.

Even if Aramco debuts on the low end of the range, it will still be the biggest ever, nearly five times bigger than Alibaba’s 2014 listing.

Bigger than Apple and Microsoft, too

Nobody is disputing that the Aramco numbers are huge. The company reported revenues of $356 billion in 2018 and a net profit of $111 billion. (Yes, some companies wait to IPO after they’ve turned a profit). That’s more than the combined net income reported by Microsoft and Apple in their most recent fiscal years.

State-owned Saudi Aramco has a maximum output capacity of around 12 million barrels of oil per day, or around one in eight barrels produced worldwide.

Aramco is also set to become a big player in the global chemical industry after agreeing to buy a majority stake in Saudi Basic Industries Corp, SABIC, for $69 billion this year.

With such a portfolio, Saudi Arabia has been talking for several years about floating a portion of Aramco in what would be a revolution for a company treasured as a Saudi crown jewel.

Undershooting the prince

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who wants to sell a piece to the public to help fund the kingdom’s ambitions to diversify away from oil, has spoken confidently of a valuation of $2 trillion or more. But plans for an international listing, which would have exposed the company to the full glare of international investors’ scrutiny, has been replaced for now with a plan to list shares first on the Saudi exchange, the Tadawul.

utlining its plans on last Sunday, the company did not reveal what percentage of its shares it seeks to sell, though it is expected to be just a few per cent, less than the 5% initially envisaged. That should be cleared up when it issues a prospectus on Nov. 9; shares are expected to be listed in December.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at U.K. trading firm IG, said he was hearing that even the Saudis themselves were seeking a valuation of around $1.5 trillion for Saudi Aramco, in line with IG’s expectations.

“I don’t think the Saudis would let it go for down to $1.2 (trillion) because it would be probably too much of a prestige thing, whereas they are not going to get it to $2 (trillion) because people are too skeptical, I think, at that level.”

It was hard to say if $1.5 trillion was a realistic valuation, he told Fortune.

“Does it include enough risk premium for any geopolitical disruption, any political uncertainty in Saudi Arabia? Maybe it doesn’t. But of course if it is producing 11.6 million barrels per day, everyone will want a slice of that pie.”

He believes the IPO is likely to succeed, provided the price isn’t pitched too high, and that there will be interest from large international investors given the company’s importance. Although, he added, “if you’re a much smaller fund, or a domestic focused fund, you’d probably think twice about it.”

Aramco’s Chief Executive Amin Nasser said on last Sunday that Saudi Arabia had taken the decision to float to diversify the economy and to strengthen the local stock market’s liquidity and its ability to attract national as well as international investment.

The IPO would also increase Saudi Aramco’s visibility internationally. “By sharing a lot of information, as required by any listed company, there will be a lot of analysts that will review our data and compare it with other listed companies, and we would love to have that type of comparisons, because we are a company that are proud of our results,” he said.

Investment risks include: climate change, human rights

One way to attract investors is through a big fat dividend. And the company won’t disappoint there, expecting to pay out at least $75 billion annually to investors.

Less certain is the company’s bottom line. Saudi Aramco’s profits are closely linked to oil prices, which have been depressed this year because of oversupply, the U.S.-China trade war, and weak economic growth. It’s very likely its share price will be similarly tied to the ups and downs of a barrel of crude, too.

And then there’s the not insignificant matter of the company’s carbon footprint. Investors will be wondering: longer term, do big oil companies have a future given the global drive to cut greenhouse gas emissions, leading to the increasing use of electric cars and a growing role for renewable energy?

The political risks of investing in Saudi Aramco were dramatically highlighted in September as well. That’s when Yemen’s Houthi group apparently used drones to attack two Saudi Aramco oil processing plants, cutting Saudi oil output by half and sending oil prices through the roof. By early October, though, oil production had returned to normal and global prices have fall, and stabilized.

The listing comes as many continue to monitor the country’s track human rights track record. Last year, Saudi agents allegedly killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, causing international outrage and jeopardizing the kingdom’s economic diversification plans.

Asked how safe an investment in Saudi Aramco would be, Aramco Chairman Yasser al-Rumayyan told last Sunday’s news conference that Saudi Arabia protected shareholders’ rights and an investment would be very safe. “I think the whole wide world, not only Saudi Arabia, will be looking after the safety of this region and this company,” he said.

Analysts note that taking a bet on Saudi Aramco is equivalent to taking a bet on the entire kingdom.

Steffen Hertog, associate professor in comparative politics at the London School of Economics, said in June that the company had been taking on “increasing non-oil domestic development tasks, has acquired growing international investments, and is set to indirectly raise significant debt for the Saudi government.”

“Saudi Aramco’s prominent national role reflects its capabilities and gives it considerable political capital. It also comes with significant non-commercial obligations, however, which often are not of its own making,” Hertog wrote in the journal of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“When Aramco was tasked with the building of a stadium and sports city in Jeddah in 2009 … some observers already wondered whether it was being turned into a surrogate government,” he wrote.

In other words, prospective investor, this is no unicorn.