牛市涨得太多不敢买？那就考虑买“熊股”

股市再创新高，对那些已经持仓的股民而言自是再好不过。不过股票直线上涨也有不利之处。手握现金，寻求低价买入的投资者此时只能继续观望。面对日益高企的股价，那些想把储蓄资金投入股市的人不得不按兵不动。

高歌猛进的股价也给长期投资者设下了困局，因为如今股价处于高位，将来再有大幅增长的可能性已经不高。过去十年里，标普500指数中经过通货膨胀调整后的平均股票价格已经达到了每股盈利的约30倍（也就是所谓的周期调整市盈率）。历史上看，在这个水准的市盈率之后，往往紧接着令人失望的低回报期。

这就是为何投资者在股市惨淡之际购买股票会感到更加放心。好消息是，即使在股市整体上扬的情况下，也总有一些熊市存在。在逢低买入的投资者眼里，有三类资产并未被这轮牛市所带动，如今显得尤为特立独行。

New highs in the stock markets are great for those who already own stocks. But there is a downside when stocks seemingly do nothing but rise. Any investor who’s been holding cash, waiting for lower prices and a better entry point, has had to keep waiting. And those deploying new savings into the markets have had to do so at higher and higher prices.

Those rising prices are also a catch-22 for long-term investors, because pricey markets today make impressive future gains less likely. The S&P 500 currently trades at about 30 times its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years (the so-called CAPE ratio). Historically, levels anywhere near that high have almost always preceded periods of disappointing returns.

That’s why many investors are more comfortable buying shares when there’s blood in the streets. And the good news for those investors is that there will always be a bear market somewhere, even when the broad market is killing it. Three asset classes that have been left behind during this bull run stand out in particular right now in the eyes of bargain hunters:

能源股

石油价格在2008年6月达到每桶150美元的巅峰。从那以后，水力压裂法的革命带来了新的产出，再加上低通货膨胀，石油价格从那以后已经下跌了三分之二，能源公司的利润也受到沉痛打击。2008年中期至今，能源股一直是标普500指数中表现最差的类型，甚至和倒数第二都相距甚远：基金The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF（XLE）的跌幅超过13%，而同期标普500指数整体却有超过200%的涨幅。仅有的安慰奖是高股息：例如，基金The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF目前的股息为3.8%，是整体市场平均水平的两倍有余。

贵金属和矿业股

这些商品生产者的股票往往表现出很大的波动性，因为它们对经济增长和商品本身不确定的供需情况高度敏感。共同基金Vanguard Global Capital Cycles（VGPMX）很好地体现了金属市场和相关商品市场的情况，它在这段时间里连跟上市场的脚步都做不到：过去十年里，该基金跌幅近50%。（相对平庸的全球经济增长又一次成为元凶。）投资者青睐贵金属和矿业股，往往因为它们与整体市场走势关联不大，可以让投资组合变得更加多样化。不过，持有不相关的资产经常也意味着投资者会在市场其他股票突飞猛进时吞下重大损失。

价值股

互联网泡沫破灭后，价值股——那些与对应企业的价值相比估值过低的股票——涨幅大大超过增长股。不过金融危机以来，在亚马逊（Amazon）、Netflix、谷歌（Google）和Facebook等在投资者面前占尽风光的公司的带领下，增长股把价值股远远甩在了身后。科技创新、尤其是软件创新对经济的影响力日益加大，专利、版权、商标等无形资产价值不断提高，投资者也有了在资本世界额外付费的意愿，这一切共同推动着股价大步迈进。

然而，投资者认为拐点将近。投资巨头AQR Capital Management的掌门人克利夫·阿斯尼斯在最近一篇文章中通过一系列指标指出，增长股的价格达到了互联网泡沫以来的新高。他写道，与之相反：“除去技术泡沫，价值股的价值则是这一时段的最低水平。”

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当然，某股很便宜，不代表它不会变得更便宜。正如我们的例证所示，这几类股票表现糟糕都是有原因的。这让投资者对目前的状况感到疑惑：你似乎只能选择投资那些基础良好却价格较高的股票，或局势恶化却价格较低的股票。没错，历史告诉我们，经济的循环终究会开动起来，金属股和价值股又将成为主角，但它不会告诉我们具体时间。

最好的做法可能是试图放下对“具体时间”的担忧。许多投资者（包括我的公司）倾向于选择多样化投资的长期策略。在实践中，这往往意味着在遭遇最严重打击的那块市场中投入部分资金，从而利用低价进入的优势。在决定是否买入受到重创的资产时，请牢记以下经验：

没有万无一失的万金油策略

价值投资经过专业学者、职业投资者和标志性的沃伦·巴非特的反复审视，被认为是一种长期有效的策略。不过即使合理的投资策略也注定会经历表现不佳的痛苦期。毕竟，任何资产获得超出通胀率的收益，唯一的原因在于持有它们具有风险——“合理”并不意味着“无风险”。

多样化投资意味着你得一直说抱歉

多样化投资的主要原因是避免把你的钱长期集中到表现糟糕的资产上。不过扩大投资面也意味着你的投资组合中至少会有一部分走向夭折，尽管其他的能够蓬勃发展。你要接受偶尔的失败，这样才能增加获胜的概率。

不要忘记调整资产分配

只有你定期重新调整资产分配，多样化投资的策略才能起效。本质上，这意味着卖出部分表现出色的资产，并买入一些境况不佳的资产。上文中提到的所有类型的资产，在失宠之前都曾经有过投资回报率很高的时期。你之前有没有在它们风光无限时减持股份，从而将它们的权重调整到目标水平？如果没有，它们带来的亏损会给你造成更大痛苦——也会让你更难在此时作出买入的决定，尽管从战略上看，你应该这么做了。（财富中文网）

本文作者本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson）是里萨兹财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）机构资产管理部门的主任。他的公司在价值型股票基金中持有份额，但不是本文中提到的任何具体基金。

本文另一版本登载于《财富》杂志2020年1月刊，标题为《在牛市中购买“熊股”》。

译者：严匡正

Energy stocks

Oil prices topped $150 a barrel in June 2008. Since then, new production unleashed by the fracking revolution, combined with low inflation, has helped drive oil prices down by two-thirds—while hammering energy-company profits. Energy has been by far the worst-performing sector of the S&P 500 since mid-2008, and it’s not even close: The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has fallen more than 13%, versus a gain of more than 200% for the S&P 500. One consolation prize is high dividends: XLE, for example, currently yields 3.8%, more than twice what the broader market yields.

Precious metals and mining stocks

These commodity-producer stocks often exhibit wild volatility because they’re unusually sensitive to economic growth and fluctuating supply and demand for the commodities themselves. Vanguard Global Capital Cycles (VGPMX), a mutual fund that’s a good proxy for the metals markets and related commodities, has done worse than just trail the market during this cycle: Over the past 10 years, the fund is down nearly 50%. (Again, relatively modest global growth is a culprit.) Investors often seek metals and mining stocks because they have a low correlation to the broader market, offering the benefits of a diversified portfolio. But sometimes owning uncorrelated assets means eating big losses while the rest of the market screams higher.

Value stocks

After the dotcom bubble deflated, value stocks—stocks that are cheap relative to the value of their underlying businesses—went on a run of huge outperformance over growth stocks. But growth has beaten the pants off value since the financial crisis (see graphic), led by high-growth companies such as Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Facebook that have monopolized investor mindshare. The growing economic impact of tech innovation, particularly in software; the rising value of intangible assets like patents, copyrights, and trademarks; and the willingness of investors to pay extra for growth in a world awash in capital have all contributed to growth’s edge.

Still, investors think a turning point could be near. Using a number of metrics, Cliff ¬Asness, head of investment giant AQR Capital Management, showed in a recent piece that growth stocks are more expensive now than at any time other than the dotcom bubble. In contrast, Asness writes, “Excluding the tech bubble, the value of value is the cheapest it’s ever been.”

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Of course, just because something is cheap doesn’t mean it can’t get cheaper. As our examples show, each of these categories has a black eye for a reason. That’s what makes the current situation for investors so confusing: It can seem like your only choices are to invest in assets with good fundamentals but high prices or to invest in assets with deteriorating fundamentals but low prices. Yes, history tells us that economic cycles will eventually boost energy and metals stocks and value stocks again, but it won’t tell us when.

The best move may be to worry less about “when.” Many investors (including my firm) favor a long-term strategy that involves broad diversification. In practice, that often means investing some capital in the areas of the market that have been hit the hardest, to take advantage of the cheap entry point. When deciding whether to wade into beaten-down asset classes, here are some lessons to keep in mind:

Nothing works all the time

Value investing has been repeatedly vetted by academics, professional investors, and the iconic Warren Buffett as an approach that works over the long term. But even sound investment strategies are bound to go through painful periods of underperformance. After all, the only reason any assets earn a premium over the rate of inflation is because owning them involves risks—and “sound” doesn’t mean “risk-free.”

Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry

The main reason to diversify is to avoid concentrating your money in a terrible-performing asset for an extended period. But spreading your bets also means that at least part of your portfolio will be sucking wind while the rest of it sprints ahead. You’re accepting the occasional strikeout to increase your odds of winning the game.

Don’t forget to rebalance

Diversification works only if you periodically rebalance your asset allocations. In essence, this means selling a little bit of what has done well to buy a little bit of what hasn’t. All of the asset classes above experienced strong returns before their fall from grace. Did you sell off a bit during the good times to bring them back to their target weights? If not, their losses have been even more painful for you—which could make it even harder to buy now, when strategy might dictate that you should. 

Ben Carlson is director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. His firm has positions in value stock funds, but not in any specific fund mentioned here.

A version of this article appears in the January 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline “Buying ‘Bears’ in a Bull Market.”