美股去年大涨，说明今年也涨？

对美国股票市场而言，刚刚过去的2019年皆大欢喜。算上股息，标普指数大涨近32%。投资者的心情却是喜忧参半。

喜的是，人们赚得盆满钵满自然心情愉快，比不赚钱好太多。忧的是，大涨之后难免让人担心会出现大跌。

而事实则是，股票的年收益率对于判断后一年的走势并没有太大参考价值。去年的股票走势与今年股市的表现关系不大。从股票市场的历史来看，无论前一年表现如何，后一年上涨的概率比较接近。

The stock market just finished a rollicking 2019. The S&P was up nearly 32% including dividends. These types of gains present something of a double-edged sword for the investor psyche though.

On the one hand, huge gains are always a pleasant surprise and better than the alternative. On the other hand, investors become nervous following big gains because the assumption is a crash will be soon to follow.

The truth is there is little signal in the noise of year-to-year stock market returns. What happened last year has no bearing on what happens this year. Historically, the percentage of gains in the stock market following a variety of scenarios is fairly similar.

1926年以来，标普500指数基本上每四年有三年上涨。认真研究数据可以发现，不管前一年是上涨、下跌、涨幅达两位数还是跌幅达两位数，之后一年股票出现上涨的概率基本上是一样的。

Since 1926, the S&P 500 has been up roughly three out of every four years. But we can also break these numbers down by the percentage of time stocks are up in a calendar year following an up year, down year, double-digit gain or double-digit loss. On average, the percentage of time stocks are up the following year is relatively similar.

平均而言，股票大多数时间都在上涨。当然，这里说的只是股票的平均回报，实际上每年股票的涨跌幅很大。比较2018年和2019年的标普500指数的表现，投资者可以对股票的涨跌区间更深入理解。

2018年是2010年代标普500指数首次出现下跌，跌幅超过4%。

2019年则是1928年以来第18个标普500指数上涨超过30%的年份，意味着约每五年股市会出现一次年收益超过30% 。

2018年，标普500指数创下18个历史新高。

而在2019年，标普500指数创下35个历史新高。

On average, stocks go up most of the time. Of course, within those average returns is a wide range of outcomes, both to the upside and the downside. Investors can get a better sense of this range of outcomes by comparing what happened in the S&P 500 in 2018 and 2019.

2018 was the first down year of the decade in the 2010s for the S&P 500, falling more than 4%.

2019 was the eighteenth calendar year since 1928 which saw the S&P 500 rise 30% or more. This means gains of 30% or more have happened in roughly one out of every five calendar years.

In 2018 there were 18 new all-time highs in the S&P 500.

In 2019 there were 35 new all-time highs in the S&P 500.

2018年，标普500指数的最大跌幅达19.8%。

而在2019年，标普500指数的最大跌幅仅为6.8%。

2018年，标普500指数有四个月下跌，且跌幅都较深（-3.6%，-2.8%，-6.8%和-9.0%）。

而在2019年，标普500指数仅有两个月下跌，在5月和8月分别下跌了6.3%和1.6%。

In 2018 the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown in the S&P 500 was 19.8%.

In 2019 the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown in the S&P 500 was just 6.8%.

In 2018 the S&P 500 experienced four down months and all of them were relatively large declines (-3.6%, -2.8%, -6.8% and -9.0%).

In 2019 the S&P 500 experienced just two down months over the course of the year, falling 6.3% and 1.6%, respectively in May and August.

2018年，标普500指数有32个交易日跌幅至少为1%。其中15天的跌幅超过2%。上涨方面，有35天涨幅至少1%，其中有5个交易日上涨超过2%。

2019年，标普500指数有15个交易日跌幅至少1%，其中5个交易日跌幅超过2%。有23天涨幅达到1%，仅有两天超过2%。

相关数据看起来有点反常，但市场表现最好的年份通常不会出现连日大涨。反而是在股市动荡行情低迷时（如2018年），更容易出现大涨大跌的行情，牛市往往振幅很小，多是小幅上涨。

2018年，彭博巴克莱综合债券指数的表现比标普500指数高近4.5%。

2019年，标普500指数的业绩则比彭博巴克莱综合债券指数高出超过22%。

观察股票市场的平均表现确实有助于投资者培养长期眼光。但有一点务必记住，就是去年股票市场的表现对今年并无影响。（财富中文网）

本文作者是注册金融分析师本·卡尔森（Ben Carlson），他是里萨兹财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）机构资产管理部门的主任。作者可能持有文中提及的证券或资产。

译者：梁宇

审校：夏林

In 2018 there were 32 trading days in which the S&P 500 was down 1% or worse. Fifteen of those days saw losses extend to 2% or worse. On the flipside, the S&P was up at least 1% or more 35 days while 5 of those trading sessions saw gains of 2% or more.

In 2019 there were just 15 trading days where the S&P 500 fell 1% or worse, of which 5 of those were 2% or worse. There were 23 up 1% days in 2019 and just two 2% or better daily gains.

It's counterintuitive but the best years in the stock market don't typically feature huge gains day in and day out. In fact, large gains and large losses tend to cluster during volatile, down markets like we saw in 2018. The best years tend to have little volatility and many small gains.

In 2018 the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 4.5%.

In 2019 the S&P 500 outperformed the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index by more than 22%.

Looking at the averages in the stock market can help provide investors a much-needed long-term perspective. But it's important to remember that last year's results in the stock market have no bearing on what will happen this year.

Ben Carlson, CFA is the Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He may own securities or assets discussed in this piece.