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法院裁定谷歌(Google)为“垄断者”,可能会给整个科技行业带来连锁反应。
韦德布什证券公司(Wedbush Securities)在最近一份分析报告中列出了一些可能出现的情况,各种情况出现的可能性有所不同。尽管有些情况可能对谷歌有利,但并非所有情况都是如此。韦德布什认为,人们一般会想到的情况包括:禁止谷歌与其他公司达成价值数十亿美元的排他性协议、巨额罚款,或者苹果(Apple)趁机进入搜索引擎行业,与OpenAI这样的大企业合作,但这种情况出现的概率很低。
对于消费者来说,“我用谷歌搜索一下”这一语句(在2006年开始盛行)的终结,可能最终会使他们更容易访问其他搜索引擎。但仅仅是这个原因并不会使谷歌的业务蒸发。消费者只需在众多竞争者中选择谷歌即可。但是,如果谷歌的地位下滑,就会为其他搜索引擎打开大门,因为它们可以更公平地参与竞争。
本周一,美国哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院法官阿米特•梅塔裁定,谷歌利用其在搜索引擎市场的领先地位,不公平地损害了规模较小竞争对手的利益,构成垄断行为。梅塔在裁决书中称,谷歌利用其规模和影响力达成排他性协议,使其搜索引擎成为默认设置。2021年,为达成此类协议,谷歌与苹果等智能手机生产商、各种无线运营商和网络浏览器开发商签订收入共享协议,为此支出总计260亿美元。
在长达286页的裁决书中,梅塔承认谷歌产品卓越,称其为“业界质量最高的搜索引擎。”
谷歌在对这一裁决的回应中指出了这一事实,并计划提起上诉。“这一裁决承认谷歌的搜索引擎为业界最优,但得出的结论却是,不允许谷歌让这种搜索引擎被轻易访问,”谷歌全球事务总裁肯特•沃克说道。
谷歌与其他公司签订的协议带来了丰厚回报。2023年,谷歌搜索贡献了1,750亿美元的收入,竞争对手无法进入消费者的设备。梅塔在裁决书中称,2020年,谷歌占据高达95%的智能手机搜索市场份额和90%的在线搜索市场份额。其中还指出,微软(Microsoft)旗下的必应(Bing)仅次于谷歌,但仅占6%的搜索市场份额。
由于上诉仍在进行中,而且梅塔尚未决定对谷歌实施何种处罚,因此结果可能多变。韦德布什分析师认为,有可能维持现状,也有可能彻底颠覆搜索行业。
谷歌未来何去何从?
最直接的结果是谷歌上诉胜诉。这样的话,当前的裁决将被推翻,一切都会保持原样。据韦德布什分析师丹•艾夫斯预计,谷歌上诉胜诉的几率约为30%到40%。上诉可能需要数月甚至数年的时间,在此之前,事情可能会陷入僵局。
如果谷歌上诉败诉,梅塔将会对谷歌采取处罚措施,或要求其缴纳罚款,或要求其改变经营方式,或两者兼而有之。韦德布什分析师表示,谷歌可能会被处以罚款,但这对谷歌业务的影响可能不大,特别是在允许谷歌搜索继续作为默认搜索引擎的协议仍然有效的情况下。对于这家市值2万亿美元的科技巨头和其他类似公司来说,这也是老生常谈了。2017年6月,因谷歌违反欧盟反垄断监管机构新实施的科技法规,欧盟对其开出27亿美元的罚单。在美国,其他科技公司也收到过其他反垄断监管机构开出的数十亿美元的罚单。2019年,美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)以Meta公司违反隐私法规为由,对其开出50亿美元的罚单。
如果政府迫使智能手机生产商主动向消费者提供更换默认搜索引擎的选项,这将对谷歌业务造成冲击。韦德布什称,即使大多数用户预计仍会继续使用谷歌,但这一措施仍会造成“净负面结果”。
丹•艾夫斯表示,这样的话,谷歌上诉将以某种中间立场告终,即协议仍然有效,但须附加一定条件。他认为这与2001年著名的微软反托拉斯案有异曲同工之处。在微软案中,微软在上诉后获准继续经营,但必须向竞争对手提供其API访问权,而微软之前对此一直持拒绝态度。
“如果谷歌败诉,他们很可能会与苹果达成某种结构性协议,所有事情都将会变得非常棘手,”艾夫斯说道。“从搜索角度出发,可以在iOS iPhone生态系统中为[消费者]提供一些其他选择,但谷歌仍是主要搜索引擎合作伙伴。”
其他分析师也认为这种情况有可能发生。
Evercore分析师阿米特•达里亚纳尼表示,最有可能的结果之一是,法官裁定“苹果等公司必须主动提示用户选择搜索引擎,而不是设置默认搜索引擎,由消费者根据自己的意愿更改设置。”
谷歌与苹果等公司签订的协议确保了设备不会预装其他搜索引擎。这种情况很有可能会发生改变,用户在购买新设备时,会被提示从选项列表中选择一个默认搜索引擎。
还有两种情况不太可能发生。其一,像苹果这样的公司,现在不受利润丰厚但限制性强的默认协议约束,只需用其他搜索引擎取代谷歌即可。韦德布什认为这种情况不会发生,因为人们普遍认为谷歌是市场上最好的搜索引擎。
其二,苹果以此为契机,开始开发与谷歌竞争的产品。
开发会话式人工智能的云计算公司Conversica的CEO吉姆•卡斯卡德表示,如果做得好的话,苹果可以将人工智能搜索工具无缝集成到其遍布全球的无数设备上。“这有可能让苹果成为大赢家,从而取代谷歌的主导地位。”
据《纽约时报》2023年的报道,谷歌与苹果达成大额交易的原因之一,就是为了阻止苹果开发自己的搜索工具。苹果和谷歌已经凭借其iOS和Android系统在智能手机市场展开竞争。
最后,韦德布什报告指出了谷歌两大技术竞争对手之间的合作计划。苹果和OpenAI可能会合作开发下一代人工智能搜索引擎。艾夫斯承认,这种可能性微乎其微,但仍不失为一种选择。“虽然这种情况发生的概率极低,但我们还是要把所有的可能性都列出来,”他说道。
两家公司已经达成协议,将OpenAI的ChatGPT工具集成到苹果现有的Siri功能中,称之为“苹果智能”。虽然可能性不大,但韦德布什承认,如果这种情况真的发生了,谷歌可能会遭受重创。研究报告指出,“苹果带来的意外挑战,可能会使谷歌失去更多的市场份额。”
但据报道,苹果作为一家出了名的严谨公司,出于对消费者隐私和品牌形象的担忧,正与OpenAI保持一种若即若离的关系。
卡斯卡德表示,这一切都还为时过早。他说:“我们不要把裁决和连带挑战与这两家公司的市场推广和产品技术突破混为一谈。无论谷歌和苹果如何竞争,裁决始终有效。”(财富中文网)
翻译:郝秀
审校:汪皓
法院裁定谷歌(Google)为“垄断者”,可能会给整个科技行业带来连锁反应。
韦德布什证券公司(Wedbush Securities)在最近一份分析报告中列出了一些可能出现的情况,各种情况出现的可能性有所不同。尽管有些情况可能对谷歌有利,但并非所有情况都是如此。韦德布什认为,人们一般会想到的情况包括:禁止谷歌与其他公司达成价值数十亿美元的排他性协议、巨额罚款,或者苹果(Apple)趁机进入搜索引擎行业,与OpenAI这样的大企业合作,但这种情况出现的概率很低。
对于消费者来说,“我用谷歌搜索一下”这一语句(在2006年开始盛行)的终结,可能最终会使他们更容易访问其他搜索引擎。但仅仅是这个原因并不会使谷歌的业务蒸发。消费者只需在众多竞争者中选择谷歌即可。但是,如果谷歌的地位下滑,就会为其他搜索引擎打开大门,因为它们可以更公平地参与竞争。
本周一,美国哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院法官阿米特•梅塔裁定,谷歌利用其在搜索引擎市场的领先地位,不公平地损害了规模较小竞争对手的利益,构成垄断行为。梅塔在裁决书中称,谷歌利用其规模和影响力达成排他性协议,使其搜索引擎成为默认设置。2021年,为达成此类协议,谷歌与苹果等智能手机生产商、各种无线运营商和网络浏览器开发商签订收入共享协议,为此支出总计260亿美元。
在长达286页的裁决书中,梅塔承认谷歌产品卓越,称其为“业界质量最高的搜索引擎。”
谷歌在对这一裁决的回应中指出了这一事实,并计划提起上诉。“这一裁决承认谷歌的搜索引擎为业界最优,但得出的结论却是,不允许谷歌让这种搜索引擎被轻易访问,”谷歌全球事务总裁肯特•沃克说道。
谷歌与其他公司签订的协议带来了丰厚回报。2023年,谷歌搜索贡献了1,750亿美元的收入,竞争对手无法进入消费者的设备。梅塔在裁决书中称,2020年,谷歌占据高达95%的智能手机搜索市场份额和90%的在线搜索市场份额。其中还指出,微软(Microsoft)旗下的必应(Bing)仅次于谷歌,但仅占6%的搜索市场份额。
由于上诉仍在进行中,而且梅塔尚未决定对谷歌实施何种处罚,因此结果可能多变。韦德布什分析师认为,有可能维持现状,也有可能彻底颠覆搜索行业。
谷歌未来何去何从?
最直接的结果是谷歌上诉胜诉。这样的话,当前的裁决将被推翻,一切都会保持原样。据韦德布什分析师丹•艾夫斯预计,谷歌上诉胜诉的几率约为30%到40%。上诉可能需要数月甚至数年的时间,在此之前,事情可能会陷入僵局。
如果谷歌上诉败诉,梅塔将会对谷歌采取处罚措施,或要求其缴纳罚款,或要求其改变经营方式,或两者兼而有之。韦德布什分析师表示,谷歌可能会被处以罚款,但这对谷歌业务的影响可能不大,特别是在允许谷歌搜索继续作为默认搜索引擎的协议仍然有效的情况下。对于这家市值2万亿美元的科技巨头和其他类似公司来说,这也是老生常谈了。2017年6月,因谷歌违反欧盟反垄断监管机构新实施的科技法规,欧盟对其开出27亿美元的罚单。在美国,其他科技公司也收到过其他反垄断监管机构开出的数十亿美元的罚单。2019年,美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)以Meta公司违反隐私法规为由,对其开出50亿美元的罚单。
如果政府迫使智能手机生产商主动向消费者提供更换默认搜索引擎的选项,这将对谷歌业务造成冲击。韦德布什称,即使大多数用户预计仍会继续使用谷歌,但这一措施仍会造成“净负面结果”。
丹•艾夫斯表示,这样的话,谷歌上诉将以某种中间立场告终,即协议仍然有效,但须附加一定条件。他认为这与2001年著名的微软反托拉斯案有异曲同工之处。在微软案中,微软在上诉后获准继续经营,但必须向竞争对手提供其API访问权,而微软之前对此一直持拒绝态度。
“如果谷歌败诉,他们很可能会与苹果达成某种结构性协议,所有事情都将会变得非常棘手,”艾夫斯说道。“从搜索角度出发,可以在iOS iPhone生态系统中为[消费者]提供一些其他选择,但谷歌仍是主要搜索引擎合作伙伴。”
其他分析师也认为这种情况有可能发生。
Evercore分析师阿米特•达里亚纳尼表示,最有可能的结果之一是,法官裁定“苹果等公司必须主动提示用户选择搜索引擎,而不是设置默认搜索引擎,由消费者根据自己的意愿更改设置。”
谷歌与苹果等公司签订的协议确保了设备不会预装其他搜索引擎。这种情况很有可能会发生改变,用户在购买新设备时,会被提示从选项列表中选择一个默认搜索引擎。
还有两种情况不太可能发生。其一,像苹果这样的公司,现在不受利润丰厚但限制性强的默认协议约束,只需用其他搜索引擎取代谷歌即可。韦德布什认为这种情况不会发生,因为人们普遍认为谷歌是市场上最好的搜索引擎。
其二,苹果以此为契机,开始开发与谷歌竞争的产品。
开发会话式人工智能的云计算公司Conversica的CEO吉姆•卡斯卡德表示,如果做得好的话,苹果可以将人工智能搜索工具无缝集成到其遍布全球的无数设备上。“这有可能让苹果成为大赢家,从而取代谷歌的主导地位。”
据《纽约时报》2023年的报道,谷歌与苹果达成大额交易的原因之一,就是为了阻止苹果开发自己的搜索工具。苹果和谷歌已经凭借其iOS和Android系统在智能手机市场展开竞争。
最后,韦德布什报告指出了谷歌两大技术竞争对手之间的合作计划。苹果和OpenAI可能会合作开发下一代人工智能搜索引擎。艾夫斯承认,这种可能性微乎其微,但仍不失为一种选择。“虽然这种情况发生的概率极低,但我们还是要把所有的可能性都列出来,”他说道。
两家公司已经达成协议,将OpenAI的ChatGPT工具集成到苹果现有的Siri功能中,称之为“苹果智能”。虽然可能性不大,但韦德布什承认,如果这种情况真的发生了,谷歌可能会遭受重创。研究报告指出,“苹果带来的意外挑战,可能会使谷歌失去更多的市场份额。”
但据报道,苹果作为一家出了名的严谨公司,出于对消费者隐私和品牌形象的担忧,正与OpenAI保持一种若即若离的关系。
卡斯卡德表示,这一切都还为时过早。他说:“我们不要把裁决和连带挑战与这两家公司的市场推广和产品技术突破混为一谈。无论谷歌和苹果如何竞争,裁决始终有效。”(财富中文网)
翻译:郝秀
审校:汪皓
The court ruling that Google is a “monopolist” could have ripple effects across the entire tech industry.
A recent analyst note from Wedbush Securities lays out some of the possible scenarios. Some are more likely than others, and not all are favorable for Google—though some could be. The options on the table include a ban on the billions’ worth in exclusivity agreements Google struck with other companies, a massive fine, or the long-shot possibility that Apple seizes the opportunity to parachute into the search engine business itself, potentially with a formidable player like OpenAI, according to Wedbush.
For consumers, the end of “Let me google that for you,” a term that officially became a verb in 2006, could mean that it will ultimately be easier for them to access other search engines. But just because access is easier doesn’t mean Google’s business will evaporate. Consumers could simply choose it over competitors. However, if Google’s position were to slip, it could open the door to other search engines now that they could more fairly compete.
On Monday, Judge Amit Mehta of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that Google acted as a monopoly by using its position as the market-leading search engine to unfairly harm its smaller competitors. In the ruling, Mehta said Google had used its size and influence to secure exclusivity deals that made its search engine the default setting. In 2021, Google spent a total of $26 billion securing these agreements through revenue-sharing deals with smartphone makers like Apple, various wireless carriers, and web browser developers, according to Mehta’s ruling.
In his 286-page brief, Mehta acknowledged Google’s superior product, calling it “the industry’s highest-quality search engine.”
Google pointed to this fact in its reaction to the ruling, which it plans to appeal. “This decision recognizes that Google offers the best search engine, but concludes that we shouldn’t be allowed to make it easily available,” Google president for global affairs Kent Walker said.
The agreements Google signed with other companies paid off handsomely—in 2023 Google Search raked in $175 billion in revenue—keeping competitors off consumers’ devices. In 2020, Google had a 95% market share on smartphones and a 90% share of online search in general, according to Mehta’s ruling. Microsoft-owned Bing, the runner-up, had just 6% of all searches, the court filings stated.
With an appeal pending and the fact Mehta hasn’t yet decided what penalties he will impose on Google, there are a few possible outcomes in the running. They range from maintaining the status quo to upending the search industry all together, according to Wedbush’s analysts.
What could happen to Google?
The most straightforward outcome is if Google wins its appeal. In that case, the current ruling would be overturned and things would stay as they are. Google has about a 30% to 40% chance of winning its appeal, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives’s estimate. The appeal will likely take months if not years to play out and until then things could be in a holding pattern.
If Google loses the appeal, Mehta would impose a penalty that either forces the company to pay a fine, change the way it does business, or both. Google could be hit with a fine, which would likely have little effect on Google’s business, especially if the agreements allowing it to remain the default search engine stayed in place, said Wedbush’s analysts. It’s also old hat for the $2 trillion tech giant and others like it. In the EU, Google was hit with a $2.7 billion fine in June 2017 for violating newly implemented tech regulations by the EU’s antitrust watchdog. In the U.S., other tech companies have been hit with similar multibillion-dollar fines by other antitrust regulators. In 2019, the FTC slapped Meta with a $5 billion fine for violating privacy regulations.
What would be a hit to Google’s business is if the government forced smartphone companies to proactively offer consumers the option to change their default search engine. Wedbush called this a “net negative outcome” even though it expected most users would continue to stick with Google.
In this case, Google’s appeal would end in a sort of middle ground, where it kept its agreements but under certain conditions, according to Dan Ives. He likened it to Microsoft’s famous antitrust case from 2001 where after an appeal the company was allowed to stay together but had to offer competitors access to its APIs, something it had previously resisted.
“If they lose, they likely come to some structured agreement with Apple that would tightrope everything,” Ives said. And “give [consumers] some other options from a search perspective on the iOS iPhone ecosystem, but still keep Google as the primary search partner.”
Other analysts also consider this to be a possibility.
Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani said one of the most likely outcomes is a ruling that would require that “companies like Apple must proactively prompt users to select their search engine rather than setting a default and allowing consumers to make changes in settings if they wish.”
Google’s agreements with companies like Apple ensures that devices don’t come preloaded with other search engines. There’s a strong possibility that could change and that upon buying a new device, users will be prompted with the option to select a default search engine from a list of choices.
There are also two less likely scenarios. In one, companies like Apple, now unencumbered by lucrative but restrictive default agreements, simply replace Google with a different search engine. Wedbush doesn’t see that happening because Google is widely considered to be the best search engine on the market.
The second unlikely scenario is that Apple uses this as an opportunity to start developing its own competitor to Google.
If done properly, Apple could seamlessly integrate an AI search tool across its countless devices across the world, says Jim Kaskade, CEO of Conversica, a cloud company developing conversation AI. “This is a potentially big win and will help unseat Google’s dominance,” he said.
One of the reasons for Google’s big money deal with Apple was to keep it from developing its own search tools, according to New York Times reporting from 2023. Apple and Google already compete in the smartphone market with their iOS and Android systems.
In closing, the Wedbush note floats a partnership between two of Google’s major tech competitors. Apple and OpenAI could team up to develop a next-generation, AI-powered search engine. It’s a long-shot possibility, Ives concedes, but an option nonetheless. “There’s probably a better chance of me running the 200 meter in Paris than that happening, but you just got to put every option out there,” he said.
The two companies already have an agreement to integrate OpenAI’s ChatGPT tool into Apple’s existing Siri features, which it is calling Apple Intelligence. While unlikely, Wedbush concedes that if it did happen it could be a big hit to Google. “An unexpected challenge from Apple could result in more material market share loss from Google,” the research note reads.
But Apple, a famously fastidious company, is reportedly keeping OpenAI at arm’s length over concerns about consumer privacy and its brand image.
Kaskade says all of this is still premature. “Let’s not mix the ruling and associated challenges with go-to-market and product technology breakthroughs of these two,” he said. “The ruling applies no matter how Google and Apple compete.”