恐怖袭击让巴黎旅游业遭遇灭顶之灾？

    埃菲尔铁塔、巴黎圣母院和塞纳河向来是巴黎明信片的经典背景，但经历了上周的恐怖袭击事件之后，现在一提起这座时尚之都，人们恐怕首先会想到枪击、搜捕和劫持人质的画面。

    法国的旅游业也许将成为恐怖事件的另一个受害者。一如几乎所有引人注目的恐怖袭击爆发后的情形，一些潜在游客可能会望而却步。

    专门研究旅行、旅游业和旅游服务的Phocuswright公司研究主管卢克•布加尔斯基表示：“法国的旅游业将面临巨大考验。”

    法国是美国游客的主要目的地之一。美国商务部的报告显示，在2013年赴欧旅行的美国人中，有19.9%前往法国，仅次于赴英国旅行的游客比重（26.3%）。

    根据世界银行和法国外交事务和国际发展部的数据，法国国内生产总值中有7%来自旅游业，游客每年在法国的消费额高达近2,000亿美元。

    英国《每日电讯报》报道称，2013年前往法国的旅客数量是8,470万人，多于前往美国的游客（6,980万人）。

    目前还不清楚这场恐怖袭击究竟会给法国旅游业带来多大影响。在这次恐怖袭击中，讽刺杂志《查理周刊》的多名员工惨遭杀害，此外，在追捕和击毙主要犯罪嫌疑人及其同伙的过程中，还有数名人质遇害。法国的安全形象显然受到了影响。旅行社和业内分析人士预计，一些人会取消赴法行程，或在今年的旅行清单上把法国划去。

    布加尔斯基指出，法国政府提升安全级别，也许会让游客难以享受旅行的乐趣。博物馆等人气场所几乎都会配备额外警力，遭到更严密的监视。他表示，这也许会导致更加严重的“拥挤”和“不便”，导致去法国的游客失去兴致。

    美国旅行社协会主管劳拉•罗德里格斯对《财富》表示，游客若前往拥有暴力记录的地区，应当做好安全措施，听从导游人员的指导。她还说，游客应当警惕周围的环境，并购买旅行保险，这样就可以在遭遇危险事件而被迫取消行程时获得补偿。

    罗德里格斯还是菲尼克斯市Marina Tours and Travel的老板，这是一家专门经营赴法团体游的旅游公司。她说，她不希望这样一番言论吓到自己的顾客。

    罗德里格斯说：“这类事件在全世界任何一个地方都可能发生。让我们祈祷它们不会再次发生吧。”

    全球商务旅行协会常务董事麦克•麦考密克解释称，9/11事件给各大公司敲醒了“警钟”，促使他们更加重视赴海外出差员工的安全状况。

    全球商务旅行协会的报告显示，2013年，商务旅行者的法国之行共花费了350亿美元，这是该指标连续第三年下降。但该协会预计，2014年的商务旅行花销将会再次增长，达到370亿美元。

    麦考密克特别谈到了恐怖袭击对欧洲和法国商业旅行的影响：“我估计情况不会有多大改变。当然，这种局势对休闲旅行的影响会稍大一些。”

    他继续说道：“但我认为还发生了另一件事，那就是法国现在获得了以前没有的抗压性和警觉性。我们现在非常关注世界每个角落发生的事情。我认为，人们已经对目前的局势有了更深入的理解。”（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    审校：任文科

    Images of shootings, manhunts and hostage stand-offs in Paris this week replaced the usual picture postcard views of the Eiffel Tower, Notre Dame Cathedral and the Seine.

    France’s tourism industry may be another victim. As is the case following almost all high-profile terrorist attacks, some would-be visitors may stay clear.

    “There’s a lot at stake,” said Luke Bujarski, the director of research at Phocuswright, a firm that specializes in research about travel, tourism and hospitality.

    France is a prime destination for U.S. travelers. The country accounted for 19.9% of all American trips to Europe in 2013, second only to the United Kingdom with 26.3%, according to a Commerce Department report.

    Tourism generates around 7% of France’s gross domestic product, or nearly $200 billion in spending annually, based on data from the World Bank and the French foreign affairs and international development ministry.

    More people visited France in 2013 – 84.7 million – than the United States, which had 69.8 million visitors, The Telegraph said.

    How much of an impact there will be is unclear. The attacks – which included a dozen murdered at the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine along with several hostages killed during raids that left the chief suspects and an ally dead – certainly tarnished the country’s image for safety. Travel agents and analysts expect that some people will cancel trips to France or check the country off their list this year.

    Bujarski pointed out that ramped up security by the French government may make it more difficult for tourists to enjoy the country. High-profile locations such as museums are almost guaranteed to get extra police and tougher screening. The result may be more “congestion” and “inconvenience” that’s off-putting to those who visit France in the future, he said.

    Laura Rodriguez, a director with American Society of Travel Agents, told Fortune that visitors to regions with a history of violence should take safety precautions and make use of the expertise of tour guides. She added that travelers should stay aware of their surroundings and buy travel insurance so they can be reimbursed if they have to cancel their trip because of dangerous events on the ground.

    Rodriguez, who is also owner of Marina Tours and Travel in Phoenix, which specializes in tour group vacations to France, said she wouldn’t want to scare her customers.

    “Things like this could happen in any part of the world,” she said. “And let us hope things don’t happen again.”

    Mike McCormick, the executive director of the Global Business Travel Association, which represents the corporate travel industry, explained that businesses post-9/11 have had a “wake-up call” in terms of how protective they are of employees who travel abroad.

    In 2013, business travelers spent $35 billion dollars on travel in France, marking three years of negative growth, according to a Global Business Travel Association report. But it said corporate travel spending was expected to start rising again, to $37 billion in 2014.

    “My expectation is that largely it would be the same,” McCormick said about the attacks’ impact on business travel to Europe and France, specifically. “Leisure tends to be a little more reactive to situations, for sure.”

    He continued: “But the other thing that I think that has happened is there’s a resilence and awareness that wasn’t there before. Ultimately, we are very aware now of happenings in every part of the world. I think there’s just much more of an understanding.”