Why Dell won't go private

    Dell has been open about its strategy to buy. "We've been very clear that our intent is to consider strategic acquisitions, primarily in the enterprise solutions and services area that can either complement and expand our capabilities," says spokesperson David Frink. He also says that he's satisfied with Dell's integration of companies they've already bought like Perot, an enterprise solutions service company purchased in September 2009 for $3.9 billion, and EqualLogic, a data storage company purchased in 2007 for $1.4 billion.

    So Dell can't afford to go private. But how does it make it going public work? There are a few tough routes it could take:

    Dell could buy a series of small companies. "I think they really do want to try to have base hit singles, as opposed to trying to hit the ball out of the park, because if one fails it's not as big of a deal," says Noland. The upside of this method is that Dell will stay well within its operating cash flow and won't have to worry if one of the acquisitions doesn't work. The company has shown some signs that it leans toward this trend. Dell recently bought software-as-a-service company Boomi earlier this month, two months after losing a bid for 3PAR to HP.

    However, those base hits will have to add up to runs on the scoreboard to matter. "That type of a strategy is great for companies whose core business is doing well," says Lamba, but Dell needs to work on its core. "When you're having issues in core, that's a long and a hard journey. By the time those acquisitions yield results, competition will have moved too far ahead."

    Dell could try for one big company-changer. The issue with buying small is that even phenomenally growing small companies still produce revenue that's not material for a giant like Dell. Purchasing or merging with a large company would mean more risk, but it would move growth numbers faster for a company Dell's size.

    Of course, buying a company means figuring out what to do with it. "Integration's going to be difficult with companies that are all over the place in different markets in different cultures," Noland says. "It makes it hard for Dell to retain talent, and then to integrate start-ups into a company that's not exactly fun and foosball tables."

    Even though the company has emphasized a major shift to enterprise, it shouldn't and can't ignore the PC market, says Lamba. 50% of Dell's revenue comes from PC sales, Dell CFO Gladden said. Enterprise sales are directly tied to the job market, and while unemployment is barely creeping down, Dell is likely to get an outsized share of at least the new-PC component for businesses that are growing.

    The takeaway: shareholders hoping for Michael Dell to come in and buy back the company -- and juice the stock in the process -- should probably end their daydreams. The best hope for Dell is to reinvest, not retreat.