临危受命：标普新帅上任在即

    “多年来，道格的职业热情及优秀的个性使他成为许多人的良师益友，”花旗银行CEO吉恩•麦奎德在宣布彼得森离职的内部备忘录中如是写道。

    花旗集团于1985年聘用了刚刚获得沃顿商学院MBA学位的彼得森，然后他通过工作表现逐步获得晋升，从阿根廷企业银行部门客户经理职位晋升到哥斯达黎加区域经理，此后又曾担任乌拉圭区域经理。（在拉丁美洲工作期间，他结识了阿根廷籍的妻子，两人育有两个儿子。）1998年，花旗集团及旅行者集团（Travelers）合并，彼得森负责整合两个集团各自的审计团队。随后，他于2001年被任命为合并后的集团首席审计师。

    但是，彼得森是否能在标普获得成功还需要拭目以待，这在很大程度上是因为信用评级行业正处于不断变化之中。即使他能帮助修复标普公司的信誉，他仍须解决可能会拖延数年的政府调查及诉讼问题。这些诉讼的结果可能会极大地改变评级机构的行业格局以及它们因提供评级而要承担的法律责任。

    此外，监管机构及政界人士还正在设法清除相关法规中对使用评级的强制要求，这对于标普而言将是另一个改变游戏规则的举措。规定银行及机构投资者可持有以及持有多少固定收益证券的法规条例依赖于相应证券的信用评级。只有全国认定的评级组织（Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations）才能得到认可，其中穆迪（Moody's）、惠誉（Fitch）及标普更是占主导地位的全球性评级机构，这一身份赋予它们伪监管机构的地位，同时带来了大量的客户，因为他们必须用到各种信用评级。（《纽约时报》（New York Times）专栏作家托马斯•弗里德曼接受美国公共广播公司（PBS）著名新闻主持人吉姆•莱赫尔的采访时曾说，,世界上有两个超级大国——美国和穆迪，这句话后来广为流传。）即使标普卸任总裁德文•夏尔马也对《财富》杂志称，相关法规不应强制规定评级的使用。

    将评级从监管系统中剔除会大大降低三大评级机构对华尔街的影响和权力，并可能损害它们的盈利能力。但诸如纽约大学斯特恩商学院（NYU's Stern School of Business）教授拉里•怀特等评级机构观察人士指出，目前离这种大刀阔斧的改革还相当遥远。

    虽然彼得森接手标普后面临的局面困难重重，但这次跳槽有望为他赢得非常丰厚的回报。麦格劳-希尔集团的现任CEO泰瑞•麦格劳已经是62岁的高龄，但集团目前尚未公布任何继任方案——甚至连推测也没有。彼得森有望成为其接班候选人。毕竟，他即将执掌该集团最赚钱的评级部门，而且曾在一家庞大的集团里拥有丰富的管理经验。

    此外，贾纳对冲基金及安大略教师养老基金正在强烈要求麦格劳-希尔集团分拆成四个独立的业务公司：教育、媒体、股票指数及信用评级。倘若标普按业务分拆成几家独立公司的话，彼得森将从备受尊重的部门主管一跃成为华尔街一家独立、极具影响力而且盈利丰厚的公司的CEO。（麦格劳拒绝接受如此重大的改革方案。）如果于2000年从邓白氏公司（Dun & Bradstreet）分拆出来的穆迪能提供些许借鉴的话，那么标普公司股东有望从分拆中获益。穆迪首次公开募股（IPO）一年后，股价上涨近40％。五年之后，该股股价已经上涨至原来的三倍。穆迪高管持有的股票期权价值猛增，个个赚得盆满钵溢。

    译：iDo98

    "Doug's enthusiasm and great nature have made him a mentor and friend to many over the years," Gene McQuade, the CEO of Citibank, wrote in an internal memo that was circulated announcing Peterson's departure.

    Citi hired Peterson in 1985, fresh from Wharton's MBA program, and he worked his way up from corporate banking role in Argentina to country manager in Costa Rica and then Uruguay. (He met his Argentinean wife, with whom he has two sons, while working in Latin America.) After Citicorp and Travelers merged in 1998, Peterson oversaw the integration of their respective audit teams. He was then appointed chief auditor of the combined group in 2001.

    But whether Peterson will be a success at S&P is still up for grabs, in large part because the business is in flux. Even if he can help repair S&P's credibility, he must work through investigations and lawsuits that could drag on for years. The results of these legal actions could greatly change the landscape for ratings agencies and their legal liabilities vis-a-vis ratings.

    Regulators and politicians are also working to take ratings out of regulations, which would be another game changer for S&P. Rules governing the fixed income securities that banks and institutional investors can hold, and in what amounts, rely on credit ratings. And the only ratings that count are those from Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSROs), of which Moody's, Fitch, and S&P are the dominant global firms, giving them a pseudo-regulatory role and a sea of customers who must use ratings. (New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman famously told Jim Lehrer that there were two superpowers in the world -- the United States and Moody's.) Even S&P's outgoing president Deven Sharma told Fortune that regulations should not mandate the use of ratings.

    Taking ratings out of the system could greatly decrease the power and influence that the big three ratings firms have over Wall Street, and possibly impair their earnings power. But that sort of mass overhaul still seems a long way off, points out ratings watchers like Larry White, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business.

    While Peterson is inheriting a difficult situation at S&P, the move could prove very lucrative for him. No succession plan has been announced, or even speculated upon, for McGraw-Hill's 62-year-old CEO Terry McGraw. It is possible that Peterson would be a possible successor. After all, he would be running the company's most lucrative division, and has a broad array of managerial experience at a massive organization.

    Moreover, Jana and Ontario Teachers are pushing for a break up of McGraw-Hill into four separate businesses: education, media, indexes, and ratings. If S&P is spun off, Peterson would suddenly rise from respected division head to the chief executive of a standalone, influential, and highly profitable Wall Street firm. (McGraw has balked at the idea of so drastic a move.) If Moody's, which was spun out of Dun & Bradstreet in 2000, is any indication, S&P shareholders could stand to reap the benefits of a split. Moody's shares rose nearly 40% a year after their initial public offering. Five years later, the stock had tripled. The value of executive stock options soared, enriching executives.