玛丽莎•梅耶尔的谷歌魔法在雅虎玩不转

    玛丽莎•梅耶尔刚接过雅虎（Yahoo）首席执行官一职，就有人猜测她会将自己在谷歌（Google）学到的诸多想法带到雅虎。不过，要说梅耶尔将遵循所谓的谷歌模式（即以搜索为核心，随后再延伸到其他领域），那完全是无稽之谈。

    虽然10年前的谷歌和雅虎非常类似，但现在两家公司的差异比任何时候都大。梅耶尔没有时间，也没有足够的资金来改变这一切。

    梅耶尔面临的首要问题是搜索。根据调研公司康姆斯科（ComScore）本月初发布的数据，谷歌6月份在美国搜索市场的份额已经达到了66.8%，比5月份时的66.7%上升了0.1个百分点。另一份来自调研公司NetMarketShare的数据显示，谷歌在全球搜索市场的份额已达82.6%。雅虎上月在美国搜索市场的份额仅为13%，在全球搜索市场的份额则只有区区6.8%。两家公司差距悬殊。即便梅耶尔曾经帮助谷歌搜索从默默无闻成长为如今的行业霸主，她也无法改变现状。谷歌在搜索领域早已树大根深，绝非其它公司所能轻易抗衡。

    另一个问题是：目前搜索业务并不是由雅虎实际掌控。2009年，时任雅虎首席执行官的卡罗尔•巴茨与微软（Microsoft）达成了一项合作协议，后者将独家为雅虎提供“算法及付费搜索服务”。根据雅虎向美国证券交易委员会（the Securities and Exchange Commission）提供的文件，合作协议有效期为10年，范围涵盖搜索和雅虎的“应用及其它数字内容。”

    这项协议束缚了梅耶尔的手脚。她唯一的破解之法是，证明在过去一年微软为雅虎带来的每搜索营收额低于预期。雅虎已经表示对微软在搜索业务上给自己带来的回报颇为不满。雅虎在近期的营收电话会议上表示：“在减小每搜索营收额差距方面，微软仍未取得进展。”雅虎还透露，通过微软搜索带来的营收大大低于该公司之前的既定目标。

    现在并不清楚如果梅耶尔撕毁协议的话，她的后续计划是什么。雅虎离开搜索市场已经好些年了，如果想卷土重来，必然耗资巨大，如今摇摇欲坠的雅虎已难以承受。雅虎唯一能做的也许是与谷歌合作，不过，这样的决定将彻底击碎雅虎希望重返搜索领域巨人行列的梦想。

    但这也许并不重要。毕竟，雅虎是一家与谷歌完全不一样的公司。在很大程度上，谷歌并不进行内容创造，而是决定如何利用互联网上的海量信息；雅虎则不大一样，它拥有许多横跨诸多行业的内容网站。如果梅耶尔真的决定追随谷歌模式，那么她势必要关闭那些站点。随之而来的问题是：雅虎将在转型期丧失大笔营收。

    此外，广告业务怎么办？虽然雅虎在在线广告市场仍占据一席之地，但份额却在不断下降。去年12月，广告公司ZenithOptimedia 指出，截止到2010年底，雅虎在在线广告市场的份额仅为8.3%。而在2006年，雅虎的市场份额还有18.7%。谷歌在全球互联网广告市场的份额则从2006年34.9%上升到了2010年底的44.1%。

    在搜索广告方面，还有更坏的消息等着雅虎。来自市场调研公司eMarketer的消息，到今年年底，谷歌将占据美国搜索广告市场78%的份额，雅虎份额则将萎缩至4.5%，而到2014年底，这个数字将进一步萎缩至3%。谷歌在在线广告领域的巨大成功离不开两大核心元素：搜索份额和并购。使用谷歌搜索的人越多，谷歌产生的收益也就越多，这一点显而易见。依靠这一点，谷歌赚到了足够多的钱，然后开始收购主要的在线广告公司，例如DoubleClick等。

    雅虎则寒碜得多。最近，该公司决定出售价值70亿美元的中国阿里巴巴公司（Alibaba）股份以筹集现金。过去五年，雅虎股价已累计下跌了将近38%，看来梅耶尔恐怕很难说服潜在的卖家接受部分现金、部分股权的收购交易。

    梅耶尔对上面这些情况心知肚明。接过雅虎首席执行官一职时，梅耶尔肯定知道自己所要面临的烂摊子，而她必然也进行了一番规划。不过，想把雅虎变成下一个谷歌是行不通的。此时此刻，雅虎与谷歌天差地别，而且雅虎实力已经大不如前，根本做不到这一点。

    译者：项航

    As soon as Marissa Mayer was tapped to be Yahoo's CEO, speculation arose that she would bring ideas she learned at Google to Yahoo. But the idea that Mayer will follow the so-called Google model, which centers on search and then extends its tentacles into other territories, is plain nonsense.

    Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO), while similar 10 years ago, are now more unlike than ever before. And Mayer won't have the time nor the cash to change that.

    Her first issue is search. According to data released earlier this month from research firm ComScore, Google's search market share in the U.S. stood at 66.8% in June, jumping one-tenth of a percentage point from 66.7% in May. Google holds 82.6% of the worldwide search market, according to data from NetMarketShare. In the U.S. last month, Yahoo's search could only muster 13% market share. And worldwide, Yahoo owns only 6.8% of the search market. That's a major gap. And not even Mayer, who helped grow Google's Search into the behemoth that it is today, could change that; Google's search is simply far too sophisticated to be so easily matched.

    There's another problem: Yahoo doesn't actually control its search any longer. Back in 2009, then-Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz signed a search pact that made Microsoft (MSFT) the exclusive "provider for algorithmic and paid search services." According to a document the companies filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), that deal is good for 10 years, and extends from Search to Yahoo's "applications and other digital properties."

    That agreement ties Mayer's hands. Her only out would be to prove that the revenue per search Microsoft is generating for Yahoo over a 12-month period is lower than expected. Yahoo has expressed displeasure over Microsoft's return on its search, saying at a recent earnings call that it was "unable to report progress by Microsoft on closing the gap in marketplace RPS." The revenue Microsoft is generating through its search is substantially lower than what the companies had set as their goal, Yahoo says.

    Still, it's not clear what Mayer could really do if she pulls out of the deal. Yahoo hasn't been in the search game for years, and getting back into it is too costly for the ailing company. Yahoo's only move might be to partner with Google -- a decision that would effectively shatter any hopes of Mayer's company actually becoming a true competitor to the search giant again.

    It may not matter much. Yahoo is an entirely different company than Google. Google has largely stayed out of the content-creation business, deciding instead to leverage information from around the Web. Yahoo, meanwhile, has a host of content properties spanning several industries. If Mayer truly wanted to follow the Google model, she'd eliminate all of those sites. There's just one problem: she'd lose significant revenue in the process.

    And what about advertising? Although Yahoo has a presence in the online advertising market, the company's market share is on the decline. Back in December, advertising firm ZenithOptimedia reported that Yahoo owned just 8.3% of the online advertising market at the end of 2010. In 2006, the company's market share stood at 18.7%. Google has watched its share of the global Internet ad business surge from 34.9% in 2006 to 44.1% at the end of 2010.

    It's an even worse story for Yahoo in search ads. According to research firm eMarketer, Google will own 78% of the U.S. search ad market by the end of this year. Yahoo's share will land at 4.5%. By the end of 2014, it's expected to fall to 3%, according to eMarketer. Google's success in the online ad business has been derived from two core elements: search popularity and acquisitions. When more people come to its search engine, Google can generate more cash. It's simple math. And thanks to that, Google has been able to build up enough cash and equity to acquire major online ad companies, like DoubleClick.

    But Yahoo doesn't have that luxury. The company recently decided to offload its $7 billion interest in China-based Alibaba just to raise some cash. And with a stock that's been down nearly 38% over the last five years, Mayer might have a hard time coaxing would-be sellers into a part-cash, part-equity deal.

    This isn't news to Mayer. She undoubtedly knew the mess she was inheriting when she decided to take the Yahoo CEO job and surely has some ideas on what she wants to do. But trying to turn Yahoo into the next Google won't work. At this point, the companies are simply too different and her operation too diminished to pull it off.