中情局老江湖给CEO的忠告

    我很欣赏你在每章的开始引用的名言。说到融入当地，有句林肯的名言特别突出：“我不喜欢那个家伙。所以我得多了解他。”这句话对高管有什么借鉴？

    这一点怎么强调都不为过。高管不能局限在管理层的小圈子里，需要接触各色人等，需要找寻那些挑战他们固有观念的人，即使是敌意的看法也有益处。这一点在新兴市场特别重要，和各类利益相关者的互动能为决策，特别是人员方面的决策提供信息。向当地人征询他们的想法、需求和偏好。公司当地代表和盟友能决定公司在市场是成功还是失败。

    按照我的经验，很多公司认为进入市场最艰难，但他们低估了后续工作的复杂性以及它所需要花费的时间。

    我也经常看到这个现象。情报和市场进入首先要求思考以下问题：终局是什么？退出战略是什么？应急计划是什么？很多CEO展示了无止境的乐观精神，因为他们的地位就意味着成功，而且确实需要能够畅想巨大的成功才能爬上那个位置。但成功之路并非坦途。CEO有时只顾往前冲，忘记了退路，但速度和距离不是没有代价的。

    为了能与盟友、供应商及客户感同身受，CEO必须去体会他人的环境和经验。这一点在董事会议室里或公司公务机上是做不到的。通过感同身受能加深了解，改进决策。这是深层次的情报，有时候其价值远超数据。

    我一而再地认识到：自知之明常常来自于对新环境和新人群的体验，即使这些挑战了你对现实的认知模式。它意味着突破自我、挑战自我、反思自我，然后以深思熟虑的坚决行动来改进我们的思维习惯，最终实现建立同盟和击败对手的能力。

    另外一句很好的引言是哈佛经济学家托马斯•谢林关于日本偷袭珍珠港的话：“我们的安排中有一种趋势，会把不熟悉的事情和不大可能发生的事情混淆起来。”

    谢林的话敏锐地提醒我们去持续探索新领域，这样就能想象、识别不熟悉的事情，从而为不大可能发生的事情做好准备。风险可以有多种形式，但最大的风险往往来自于意外和突发事件。这类事情给我们的决策带来挑战，不管是对9/11的反应，还是CEO应对在灾难中失去公司员工，网络攻击，又或者是外国合作伙伴转投竞争对手。

    考虑到呈指数增长的风险和机会变量以及随之而来的复杂性，CEO必须更多地为不熟悉的事情做准备，有时还需要应对自觉不大可能发生的事情，甚至是不可想象的事情。

    最后一个问题，你在书中指出你每次旅行都带上强力胶带，你会建议每个CEO都这么做吗？

    对，带上强力胶带、安全别针、头巾、洗手液、小型急救包、笔式手电、一本好书、纸笔，以及应急计划。

    克里斯多夫•M•施罗德是华盛顿特区和纽约的天使投资人以及在线内容与社交平台创业公司healthcentral.com的前任CEO。去年一月，施罗德出售了这家网站。他正在撰写一本关于中东地区创新及创业的新书。

    I love some of the quotes you used at the beginning of your chapters. One Lincoln quote stood out in the context of engaging on the ground: "I do not like that man. I must get to know him better." What does that mean for executives?

    I cannot emphasize this enough. Executives need to meet a wide range of people – by the way especially not just other executives -- and seek out those who challenge their assumptions, even those who hold adversarial views. This is especially relevant in emerging markets where interaction with diversified stakeholders can inform decisions, especially personnel decisions. Ask locals what they think, what they need, and what they prefer. A firm's local representative and local allies can determine success or failure in that market.

    In my experience, so many businesses think the hard part is entering a market, but under-estimate the time and complexity of the follow-through.

    I see this regularly. The first requirement of intelligence and market entry is to think through: What is the end-game? What are the exit strategies? What are the contingency plans? Many CEOs demonstrate an unrelenting optimism, because by definition they have succeeded, and you must imagine big success to ever get there. But, success can have many off ramps. CEOs sometimes think more about going faster and farther than exit plans, and sometimes speed and distance comes at a cost.

    To acquire an empathetic understanding of allies, vendors, and customers, a CEO must share their environment and experience. That's hard to do in a boardroom or on a corporate jet. Empathy informs understanding which improves decisions. That is deep intelligence, something far more valuable than just data.

    I learned repeatedly that self-awareness often comes from experiencing new environments and new people that challenge our paradigms of reality. This means getting out of our comfort zone, testing ourselves, reflecting upon our experiences, and following through with determined, deliberate practice that improves our mental habits and ultimately enables our ability to build alliances and beat the competition.

    Another great quote you used in your book was from the Harvard economist, Thomas Schelling in reference to the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor: "There is a tendency in our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable."

    The Schelling quote serves as a poignant reminder that we must constantly explore new terrain, so we can imagine and recognize the unfamiliar and thus be prepared for the improbable. Risk comes in many forms, but usually the biggest risks involve surprise and shock. Such events can challenge our decision making, whether it be the response to 9/11 or a CEO reacting to the loss of an employee in some disaster, a cyber attack, or a foreign joint venture partner defecting to a competitor.

    Given the exponential growth of risk/opportunity variables and the concomitant complexity, CEOs must prepare for more of the unfamiliar and, sometimes, deal with what they had thought was improbable, perhaps impossible.

    And, finally, in your book you noted that you never travelled without duct tape. Would you advise every CEO to do likewise?

    Yes, duct tape, safety pins, bandana, hand sanitizer, small first aid kit, penlight, a good book, pen/notebook, and always a contingency plan.

    Christopher M. Schroeder @cmschroed is a Washington, D.C. and New York-based angel investor and former CEO of the online content and social platform start-up healthcentral.com, which he sold last January. He is writing a book on innovation and start-ups in the Middle East.