共和党迎来新敌人：游击大师奥巴马

    要找到出路，共和党还应研究奥巴马的另一项游击战术——它来自2012年的竞选活动。奥巴马政府颁布了一条政策，要求天主教组织在其医疗方案中加入计划生育条款，这就像给了共和党人一把瞄准自己的手枪。当时，这项政策似乎是一记政治昏招：为什么要在大选年和天主教会及其强大的选民群体发生冲突呢？

   而现在看来，这样做非常聪明。它在所有共和党候选人都不愿谈到这个问题的时候把“计划生育”几个字悄无声息地放进了共和党的基本词汇表里。和堕胎【盖洛普（Gallup）的调查显示，稍多于一半的美国人认为计划生育有利于生活】不同，计划生育几乎是美国人生活中普遍接受的一部分。

    要想给共和党抹上极端主义色彩，还有什么途径能比表明他们不想让女性进行计划生育更好的呢？特别是将在下一届总统选举中发挥作用的独立单身女性？同时，在有顽固的社会保守派人士参加竞选的情况下，为什么不让共和党自行瓦解呢？而且完全不会留下一点蛛丝马迹。

    正如奥巴马方面预料的那样，共和党主要候选人里克•桑托勒姆成了这一观点的代言人。他说计划生育不道德，不必为其提供保险。桑托勒姆随后试图划清个人与政策的界限，他坚持说自己并未计划剥夺数百万女性的计划生育权，但最终惨淡收场。这让共和党蒙羞，也成了2012年大选中共和党许多自我伤害中的一次。

    从历史角度而言，具有讽刺意味的一点是，长期以来现代共和党人一直把他们的政治生涯想象成一场游击战，从上世纪80年代里根革新派观看电影《巴顿将军》（Patton， “全力进攻！让他们血流成河！”（巴顿鼓舞士气的演说词——译注）时欢呼雀跃，到前众议院议长纽特•金里奇问那些可能成为总统候选人的共和党成员，他们是否已经准备好像杰迪武士对抗达斯•维达那样和自由主义进行斗争，都是如此。拉斐尔•里德在他协助领导的基督教右翼意外崛起时也说过：“我在脸上涂上迷彩，在夜间行进。直到最后一刻，这一切才会结束。”

    当然，左翼也有自己的游击策略，特别是现代社会改良主义者索尔•阿林斯基。他的“激进派规则”把重点主要放在剖析和击败政治对手上。其中一条规则是，“权力不仅包括你拥有什么，也包括敌人认为你拥有的什么”。另一条是“找到目标，冻结它，让它人格化，两极化。”为奥巴马赢得政坛声望的是他承诺要团结民主、共和两党。上任第一年，他一直在办公室忙于如何避开共和党人而实现目标，比如刺激经济，进行医保改革和规范金融行业。现在，连任让他信心十足，而且他也找到了分化、削弱敌人的方法。

    当共和党领导人展望接下来的一系列财政危机时，他们会饶有兴致地大谈特谈政府倒闭或违约问题，但他们不应该忘记去年的教训：在本届政府递过来一把供你自杀的手枪时，一定要分外小心。

    译者：Charlie Zheng

    In crafting a way forward, Republicans should study another Obama guerrilla tactic -- this one from the 2012 campaign. The Obama campaign handed Republicans a pistol to aim at themselves in the form of its rule forcing Catholic organizations to offer birth control in their health plans. At the time, the rule seemed politically dumb: Why pick an election-year fight with the Catholic Church -- and its powerful voting block?

    In retrospect, the tactic was brilliant, slipping the words "birth control" into the Republican primary water table when none of the GOP candidates wanted to talk about it. Unlike abortion (Gallup shows a slim majority of Americans describe themselves as "pro-life"), birth control is a nearly universally-accepted fixture in American lives.

    So what better way to paint the GOP as extremist than to suggest the party wants to take birth control away from women, especially independent single women who will help decide the next presidential election? And, with staunch social conservatives in the race, why not let the party self-implode? No fingerprints needed.

    Right on script, leading GOP candidate Rick Santorum became the poster boy for the view that birth control is immoral and doesn't need to be covered by insurance. His attempt to parse the personal from policy -- insisting he didn't plan to take birth control away from millions of women --failed miserably, tarring the GOP and adding to the party's many self-inflicted wounds with voters in 2012.

    The historical irony here: Modern conservatives have long used the imagery of guerrilla war in their pursuit of politics, from Reagan revolutionaries in the 1980s celebrating the movie "Patton" ("Wade into them! Spill their blood!") to former Speaker Newt Gingrich asking potential candidates if they were ready to be Jedi knights against the Darth Vaders of liberalism. Here's Ralph Reed on the surprise rise of the Christian right he helped lead: "I paint my face and travel at night. You don't know it's over until you're in a body bag."

    Of course, the left have had their own guerilla strategists, especially the late community organizer Saul Alinsky, whose "rules for radicals" focuses largely on how to dissect and defeat political opponents. "Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have," is one. Another: "Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it."

    President Obama rose to political fame on a promise to unite red and blue America. He spent his first years in office end-running Republicans -- on the stimulus, on healthcare reform, on Wall Street regulation. Now, emboldened by his re-election, he has figured out how to divide and weaken his foes.

    As GOP leaders look toward the next series of fiscal crises and entertain explosive talk of government shutdowns or defaults, they shouldn't forget the past year's lesson: Beware when this White House is handing you a suicide pistol.