资本主义自断生路？

    当然，这个宏伟计划也面临着一些障碍。里夫金自己也承认存在这样的不利因素。比如，首先一点，在只有将近30%的美国人能用上宽带的情况下，怎么创造出“物联网社会”的所有这些奇迹呢？里夫金对在美国建立全国免费无线Wi-Fi网络的初步努力表示赞赏，但这样的方案才刚刚起步，而且时代华纳有线（Time Warner Cable）和康卡斯特（Comcast）这样的宽带市场巨无霸可能会出面阻挠——如果这两家公司的合并计划付诸实施，它们对市场的控制力就会进一步加强。

    就算人们设法建立起了功能强大而且面积广泛的互联网，从而可以让一个国家的能源和经济基础设施进入新的近似零成本时代，还需要保护它免受各种各样的侵害。值得赞扬的是，里夫金非常关注网络恐怖主义可能带来的后果，特别是如果美国继续建设集中式能源网络（这种能源网络可能因为大规模网络袭击而瘫痪），而不是建立几个独立的小型网络（欧盟正计划这样做）。

    接下来就是气候变化的作用和影响，所有威胁今后几乎任何经济举措的因素都源于此，而且这个问题说不清道不明。无论能否利用先进技术来降低生产成本，无法预测的天气以及有限的食品供应、清洁的水资源和原材料都会成为重大问题。

    里夫金最初成名于20世纪70和80年代的环保活动，对这些不利因素绝对了如指掌。他认为，目前我们需要的可能恰恰就是他所预见的这种处于成长状态的协作和共享经济，而且协作的力量和非营利组织的模式就是今后发展的方向。他写道：“我们需要摒弃以往的狭隘主义，像生活在同一个生物圈里的一个大家庭那样思考和行动。”

    《零边际成本社会》的眼界令人赞叹。里夫金谈到了大量的技术进步，这些技术进步将重新定义今后几十年很多人的生活状态（其中最非同寻常的一项是3D生物打印机，它能制造出人体组织，也许有一天还能造出完整的人体器官）。虽然他所描绘的高科技乌托邦有时候看起来似乎并不现实，但里夫金利用数据、记录科技进步的文献和相当数量的预先声明，从而确保他的许多构想都有据可查。

    里夫金在书中写道的很多东西已经出现在近几年的商业和科技报道中。但《零边际成本社会》想法大胆，而且乐于把各种各样的科技进步组织成一种令人振奋的声音来描述未来几代人的经济前景，这一点成就了它的可读性。大家可以认为这是天真，但这本书远不仅限于此，它还传递着希望。而且，也许是因为眼里只有希望，里夫金并没有提到我们凡人短期内无法真正摆脱的终极成本：时间。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    There are, of course, hitches to this master plan. Rifkin himself admits several of them. To start, how can you deliver all the wonders of an "Internet of Things society" when, for example, a little less than 30% of the U.S. population has a fixed broadband Internet subscription? Rifkin praises incipient efforts to build a nationwide, free Wi-Fi network in the U.S., but such proposals are in their infancy and will likely face opposition from broadband behemoths like Time Warner Cable and Comcast, two companies that will gain even more control of the market if their proposed merger goes forward.

    And even if you somehow build a powerful, expansive Internet that can bring a nation's energy and economic infrastructure into a new, nearly costless era, you will need to protect it from all kinds of harm. To his credit, Rifkin devotes significant attention to the potential consequences of cyberterrorism, especially if the U.S. continues to develop a centralized energy grid (the kind that could be taken out by a massive cyberattack) rather than building several individual microgrids, which is what the European Union plans to do.

    Then there's the granddaddy of all threats to just about any future economic arrangement: the untold effects and consequences of climate change. Unpredictable weather and limited food supplies, clean water, and raw materials all pose major complications, whether or not you take advantage of technology that can reduce the cost of production.

    Rifkin, who initially made his name as an environmental activist in the 1970s and '80s, is all too aware of these potential setbacks, and argues that the kind of collaborative, sharing economy he sees developing could be just what we need at this point, pointing to the power of cooperative and nonprofit organizational models as a way forward. "We will need to leave behind the parochialisms of the past and begin to think and act as a single extended family living in a common biosphere," he writes.

    The Zero Marginal Cost Society is admirable in its scope. Rifkin offers a wide-ranging overview of the kind of tech advances that will redefine how many people live in the coming decades (the wildest of all: 3-D bioprinters that can produce human tissue and perhaps one day generate entire human organs). While his techno-utopian vision may seem unrealistic at times, Rifkin makes sure to ground much of his predictions in data, documented scientific advances, and a fair amount of caveats.

    Much of what Rifkin writes about has been covered by the business and tech press in recent years. But what makes The Zero Marginal Cost Society worth reading is its audacity, its willingness to weave a vast string of developments into a heartening narrative of what our economic future may hold for the generations to come. You can call it naive, but it's much more than that. It's hopeful. And, perhaps in a moment of hope-induced blindness, Rifkin fails to mention the ultimate cost for us mortals, the one that really isn't going anywhere anytime soon: time.