预测商业风险的艺术：为什么“非专家”做的更好

    这些事例体现了专业化的一大缺陷。我并不是说专业化本身有问题。在许多工作和领域中（外科、科学研究等），专业化是成功的关键。但在应对不确定性和预测可能出现的情况方面，我更愿意让多面手来负责——这类人的经验多种多样，足以缓解上文中提到的“自认为手拿锤子”所引发的问题。

    对企业中各个层次的管理者来说，以上事例的一个明确含义就是要尊重和珍视那些看似不相关的经验。不要把应聘财务职位的营销事务管理人员拒之门外，也不要认为零售公司负责人不能经营建筑公司。培养未来负责人时，现任领导应当鼓励他们拥有多种多样的经验，而不是局限于某个专业领域。

    本文作者维克拉姆•曼沙拉马尼博士在耶鲁大学（Yale University）教授伦理、政治和经济课，他是哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院（Harvard Kennedy School）穆萨瓦-拉赫玛尼（Mossavar-Rahmani）商业与政府中心高级研究员，著有《盛衰学：在金融泡沫破裂前发现它们》（Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst）一书。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    These stories illustrate a major downside of specialization. I don’t mean to suggest that specialization unto itself is bad; in many functions and domains (surgery, scientific research, etc …), it is essential to success. But when it comes to navigating uncertainty and contemplating probabilistic scenarios, I’d rather have a generalist in charge—someone who has a breadth of experience diverse enough to mitigate the problematic hammer-carrying default setting.

    One obvious implication for managers at all levels of an organization is to respect and value seemingly unrelated experiences. Don’t dismiss the marketing executive applying for a finance position or the retail leader who thinks she can run a construction firm. And in grooming future leaders, current leaders should encourage a diversity of experience rather than narrow specialization.

    Vikram Mansharamani, PhD, is a lecturer at Yale University in the Program on Ethics, Politics, & Economics, a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, and the author of Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst.