从中国到美国：高福澜能挽回沃尔玛的销售颓势吗？

    Strategic Resource Group的零售业顾问波特•弗里金格，将沃尔玛美国业务过去几个季度的表现疲弱归咎于“自毁前程”，主要是指该公司决定缩减工作时间以及其广为人知的拒绝大幅上调员工工资——弗里金格认为，这是沃尔玛门店变得日益杂乱和存货不足的两个主要原因。（去年，沃尔玛推出了一项旨在提供开放调班的计划。)

    所有这些背后是一个完全不为CEO掌控的因素：“[美国销售额下降]很大程度上与[沃尔玛]业务偏于低端消费者有关，这些消费者仍未恢复元气，”兰德斯说。

    的确如此。经济学家伊曼纽尔•塞斯和托马斯•皮凯蒂2013年的一项研究显示，美国最富有的1%人群收入，占2012年全体美国人收入的五分之一还多。根据皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）的数据，在经济复苏的前两年，最富有7%的家庭净资产均值预计增长了28%，而剩余93%的家庭净资产均值下降了4%。这些趋势已损伤到消费者信心：盖洛普（Gallup）去年进行的一项调查显示，大部分美国人在年收入达到6万美元之前，对于必要支出都感觉肉痛。

    低收入消费者仍在“减少购买非必需品”，兰德斯说，即使在购买必需品时也会考虑节省支出，比如“买牛肉改为买猪肉”。

    不要以为沃尔玛没注意到。“基本面因素没有改变，家庭收入依然平平，”西蒙5月份在沃尔玛的业绩电话会议上表示。“随着选举季临近，各种言论升温，它会继续挑战消费者信心。”

    这意味着如果美国不出现全面的经济复苏，沃尔玛要实现销售额反弹的概率为零？不一定，主要是因为沃尔玛有一个常年的优势：晨星的肯•波金斯表示，其4,200家美国门店仍在运送足够的商品，为消费者提供有竞争力的价格。

    但要基于这个理由实现反弹并不容易。以这样低的利润率经营这样大规模的业务，要实现销售额增长很难。从这里或那里流失一笔销售或一个顾客，都可能产生显著的不同，波金斯表示，“要让沃尔玛这样规模的旗舰保持正确的方向航行很难。”（财富中文网）

    译者：早稻米

    Burt Flickinger, a retail consultant at Strategic Resource Group, for his part, attributed Wal-Mart’s poor U.S. performance in the past several quarters to “self-sabotage,” mainly its decision to cut worker hours and its well-publicized refusal to significantly raise workers wages—two big reasons why Flinckinger says Wal-Mart’s stores are increasingly sloppy and sparsely stocked. (Last year, Wal-Mart launched a program aimed at giving workers more access to open shifts.)

    Underlying all of these factors is one that’s completely out of any CEO’s control: “A lot of [the declining U.S. sales] has to do, quite simply, with the fact that [Walmart's] business is skewed to the lower-end consumer, and that consumer is still hurting,” says Landes.

    Indeed. According to a 2013 study from economists Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty, the top 1% of Americans earned more than one-fifth of all the income earned by Americans in 2012. And for the first two years of the recovery, the mean net worth of households in the wealthiest 7% rose by an estimated 28%, while the mean net worth of households in the lower 93% dropped by 4%, according to the Pew Research Center. These trends have made a dent into consumer confidence: the majority of Americans did not report feeling good about the amount of money they had to spend until their income reached the $60,000-a-year mark, according to a Gallup poll conducted last year.

    Low-earning customers are still “buying less discretionary items,” says Lande, and they’re resorting to cost-saving tactics when purchasing goods they must have, like “trading down from beef to poultry.”

    And don’t think Wal-Mart hasn’t noticed. “Fundamental dynamics haven’t changed, and household incomes are still flat,” Simon said during the retailer’s earnings call in May. “As we head toward the political season and rhetoric heats up, it will continue to challenge consumer confidence.”

    Does that mean that Wal-Mart’s chances for a U.S. sales rebound are nil, save for a full economic recovery? Not necessarily, mainly because the company has a perpetual advantage: its 4,200 U.S. stores still move enough goods to offer customers competitive prices, says Ken Perkins of Morningstar.

    For that same reason, though, a turnaround won’t be easy. With that big an operation running on such small margins, it’s difficult to generate sales growth. Losing a sale or customer here or there can make a noticeable difference, Perkins says. “It’s hard to move a ship the size of Wal-Mart in the right direction,” he said.