由于资本主义存在周期性缺陷，问题不是经济衰退会不会来，而是何时到来。目前，失业率很低，消费者也在消费。两大强力信号都表明下一次经济衰退可能比2008年温和。2008年的衰退持续了大约18个月，导致260万美国工人失业。

虽然很不幸的是没有工作能够完全抵御经济衰退影响，但即使在2008年也有一些领域和职能相对安全，下一次衰退中表现应该也不会差。

职业网站 Glassdoor的首席经济学家安德鲁·张伯伦表示：“从历史上看，有些行业和职业与商业周期波动的关联度较低。”过去，医疗卫生、教育和公用事业领域的工作在经济衰退周期中并未出现太多失业。”工会职位和政府公务员在一定程度上也能够避免受张伯伦称之为“经济波动利剑”的影响。

为找出哪些工作最有机会平稳度过下一次经济衰退，最近Glassdoor对其数据库进行了深入研究。然而类似工作职位并不容易得到，因为通常需要专门的培训和从业许可。

以下是研究人员列出10种比较能够抵御经济衰退的工作（排名不分先后），以及具体原因：

1. 教师

公立学校的教师通常是工会成员，所以辞退很难。除此之外，报告还指出，无论经济形势如何，“孩子总要上学。”

2. 医师助理

这是很难进入的领域。从业需要学士学位再加上两年Glassdoor称之为“相当于精简版医学院”教育，通常接下来是类似医学住院医师的实践培训，才能够取得所在州的从业执照。但是，即使在经济不景气的时候，人们仍然需要医疗卫生服务。此外，该研究指出，“医师助理工作地点灵活，必要时调整从业地区很容易。”

3. 教授

通常需要有博士学位，还要有教学和研究经验。但研究称，获聘终身教授（通常要等待漫长的时间而且很困难）就如同“拿到头号铁饭碗”。该研究补充称，由于终身教授职位实际上等于终身雇佣，堪称“学术界最令人羡慕的成就之一”。

4. 会计师或审计师

无论经济形势如何，会计师总是需要的，尤其是在纳税季。审计师可能更加安全，因为无论经济是否衰退，根据法律要求上市公司都要进行审计。两个职位都需要会计、财务或商业方面的学士学位，还要通过注册会计师（CPA）培训并获得会计师执照。至于审计师，雇主通常更喜欢研究生学位，在某些情况下还需要某个专业领域的审计证书。

5. 护士

与医师助理类似，任何经济条件下都需要护士。护士需要两年或四年的护理学位，通过考试后获得州政府颁发的执照。研究表明，随着人口逐渐老龄化，不管怎样对护士的需求都可能保持高位。

6. 公用事业员工

研究指出：“在每一个基本的现代便利设施背后，都有人在努力工作并维护运行。”从道路养护到垃圾运输，再到确保路灯正常照明，皆是如此。大多数公用事业公司的员工接受过高中或美国高中同等学历（GED）教育，也要拥有该领域的技术经验和“体力”。

7. 保险精算师

该研究称，精算师的工作包括帮助企业做出风险最低的决策，包括收缩甚至关停哪些业务等，因此经济低迷时“精算师可能是最受欢迎的雇员”。这份工作要求至少拥有金融相关领域的学士学位，拥有精算科学的研究生学位是“重要的加分项”。

8. 助教

Glassdoor 说，助教和教师一样“属于教育范畴，经济衰退期间可以获得安全的空间”。助教至少需要副学士学位，还需要其他从业许可和证书，各州要求各有不同。

9. 护士助理

要获得护士护理资格，需要在社区大学或职业学校完成培训项目后取得护理证书。与其他大多数领域相比，几乎所有获得医疗卫生资格的工作都更能抵御经济衰退的影响，而且护士助理可以在各种环境中工作，比如医院、疗养院和家庭护理。因此如果需要，找一份新工作相对容易。

10. 殡仪员

当然，这份工作并不适合所有人。要求获得两年制殡葬学学位，然后是州执照考试。研究称，“经济衰退并不能阻止人们死亡”。“生活中能够预测的事情很少，唯有死亡是每个人永恒的归宿。”比起来经济不景气真没什么大不了。 （财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Since one drawback of capitalism is that it’s cyclical, the question isn’t whether or not an economic downturn is coming —it’s when. At the moment, unemployment is low and consumers are spending. Both are strong signs that the next recession may be milder than the one that kicked off in 2008, lasted about 18 months, and tossed 2.6 million American workers out of their jobs.

While there’s unfortunately no such animal as a 100% recession-proof job, a few fields and functions were relatively safe even in 2008, and they’re likely to stay like that next time around, too.

“Historically, there are industries and occupations that have been less correlated to business-cycle fluctuations than others,” says Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at career site Glassdoor. “In the past, jobs in health care, education, and utilities have not suffered as many job losses during a down cycle.” Also somewhat shielded from what Chamberlain calls “the slings and arrows of economic variation” are union jobs and positions in government.

Glassdoor recently took a deep dive into its database to find out which jobs are most likely to weather the next recession relatively unscathed. Alas, these gigs aren’t easy to get, since specialized training and licensing is usually required.

The researchers came up with a list of ten, in no particular order, and what gives them a good chance of outlasting a downturn:

1. Teacher

Public-school teachers are often union members, which makes their positions harder to cut. Beyond that, no matter what the economy gets up to, the report points out, “children still need to go to school.”

2. Physician assistant

This is a tough field to enter. You need a bachelor’s degree plus two more years of schooling that Glassdoor describes as “comparable to an abbreviated medical school,” often followed by hands-on training similar to a medical residency, and then a license from your state. But, even in a troubled economy, people still need medical care. What’s more, the study notes, “working as a physician assistant can offer flexibility in location, making it easier to switch practices if necessary.”

3. Professor

You usually need a doctorate, along with teaching and research experience. But tenure —a status that is often long and tricky to achieve— is like “hitting the job security jackpot,” the study says, adding that because it’s practically synonymous with lifetime employment, tenure is “one of the most enviable achievements in academia.”

4. Accountant or auditor

Regardless of the economic climate, accountants will always be needed, especially during tax season. Auditors are perhaps even safer, since audits are required by law for any publicly traded company, recession or not. Both roles call for a bachelor’s degree in accounting, finance, or business, followed by Certified Public Accounting (CPA) training and licensure for accountants. For auditors, employers usually prefer a graduate degree and, in some cases, a certification for auditing in a specialized area.

5. Nurse

Similar to physician assistants, nurses are needed in any economic weather, with either a two -year or four-year nursing degree and a license from the state after passing an exam. Particularly as the population ages, the study says, demand for nurses is likely to remain high no matter what.

6. Utility worker

“Behind every basic modern convenience is someone working behind the scenes to make it happen and keep it running,” the study notes —from maintaining roads to hauling trash to making sure the lights stay on. Most utility employees have a high school (or GED) education, plus technical experience in the field, and “physical stamina.”

7. Actuary

Because their job involves helping businesses to make decisions that minimize risk, including which areas of a company to cut back or shut down altogether, “actuaries can be some of the most attractive people to employ” during a downturn, the study says. The job calls for at least a bachelor’s degree in a finance-related field, with a graduate degree in actuarial science “a significant plus.”

8. Teacher’s aide

Like teachers, aides “fall under the umbrella of education, which can earn them a safe space during a recession,” Glassdoor says. Teacher’s aides need at least an associate’s degree, with additional licensing and certifications that vary by state.

9. Nurses’ aides

To qualify, you’d need a certificate in nursing, after completing a program at a community college or vocational school. Not only is almost any credentialed job in healthcare more recession-proof than most other fields, but nurses’ aides can work in a variety of different settings —such as hospitals, nursing homes, and home care— so that finding a new job, if need be, is relatively easy.

10. Funeral director

Granted, this one is not for everybody. The role calls for a two-year degree in funeral studies, followed by state licensing exams. But “recessions don’t stop people from dying,” says the study. “There are very few things you can predict in life, but death is the one constant everyone can count on.” Talk about being recession-proof.