10亿女性将如何改变商界？

    首先，国际最具影响力女性排行榜将变得更加多元化。随着几个发展中国家的经济增速继续远超美国，全球经济重心将发生转移。2040年上榜女性将更多地来自博茨瓦纳、巴西、埃及、萨尔瓦多、中国和智利等国。

    事实上，有可能到将来某个时候，排行榜将不再像今天这样，继续分为美国女性和国际女性两大块。随着经济影响力由多个经济大国分执，排行榜可能会从地域上反映新的经济力量中心，出现“亚洲最具影响力女性排行榜”、“欧洲最具影响力女性排行榜”以及“美国最具影响力女性排行榜”。

    排行榜可能还会包括更多的创业家和白手起家的女性，取代那些经营成熟公司的管理者。由于最大的发展中国家经济增长迅猛（包括“金砖四国”的巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国），它们的经济比欧洲和北美发达国家更具活力。受科技推动，这些市场所发生的变化将使它们非常适合孕育颠覆性的观念和改变世界的企业。这意味着有才华的女性将有机会加快晋升的步伐。

    如今，全球白手起家的女性亿万富翁有一半来自中国，中国有1/4的企业家是女性。在埃及，约20%的企业家是女性，而且不像其他很多国家的女性所有企业（通常聚集在当地服务行业中），这些公司的业务涉猎广泛。在埃及，女性所有企业在化工医药行业占20%，在食品行业占15%。

    2040年最具影响力女性榜单可能出现更高的更替率，上榜女性很快就会被其他人赶超。这就像是20世纪90年代末以及今天我们所处的美国科技繁荣的国际版。好点子很快就会开花结果，无需太多资本，最主要的担心是可能被其他更好的点子所取代。在全球层面，全球变平意味着女性具有更多的机会和更激烈的竞争。

    最后是一个大胆的设想是：“最具影响力女性排行榜”的最大变化是到2040年，有可能这份榜单已经不复存在，因为已经没有必要再继续发布。如果女性继续推进她们在全球很多市场取得的成就，商界将变得真正公平，不会再有单独编制的“最具影响力女性排行榜”，只需编制“最需影响力高管排行榜”即可。男性或女性是否上榜的主要标准是他们的表现，而非性别。这将代表真正的进步。

    戴安妮•埃格瑞是旧金山Booz & Company的高级合伙人。她在公司负责组织和人才效能业务。

    译者：早稻米

    First, the international MPW list will become far more diverse. As several developing economies continue to post growth rates far in excess of that of the United States, the world's economic center of gravity will shift. The women who make up the list in 2040 will increasingly be from countries like Botswana and Brazil, Egypt and El Salvador, China and Chile.

    In fact, it's possible that at some point, the list won't have two main categories -- U.S. women and international women -- as it does today. Instead, with economic clout disbursed among a handful of strong economies, the list could change to geographically reflect and align to the new centers of power. There could be, say, a list for the most powerful women in Asia, another for Europe, a third for Latin America, and another for the U.S.

    The list will also likely include far more entrepreneurs and self-made women, rather than those running long-established companies. Because the largest developing countries are growing so quickly (including the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China), their economies are more dynamic and vibrant than the developed economies in Europe and North America. Fueled by technology, the changes taking place in these markets make them ripe for disruptive ideas and world-changing businesses. This means that talented women will have the opportunity to rise faster.

    Already, half of the world's self-made female billionaires are in China, and a quarter of that country's entrepreneurs are female. In Egypt, about 20% of all firms are owned by women, and -- unlike the women-owned businesses in many other countries, which tend to cluster in local service sectors -- these span a broad range of industries. In Egypt, women-owned companies account for 20% of firms in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and 15% of firms in the food industry.

    The Most Powerful Women list in 2040 will likely see greater turnover, as women appear on the list and are then surpassed by others. This is akin to a global version of the U.S. technology booms of the late 1990s and the one we're currently in today. Good ideas can flourish relatively quickly, without requiring significant capital, and often their primary risk is in being overtaken by other, better ideas. On the global front, this translates into greater opportunities for women -- as the world flattens -- but also greater competition.

    Finally, here's a radical proposal: The most significant development of the Most Powerful Women list is that by 2040, it may not exist, because it won't need to exist. If women continue the progress they're making already in many markets around the world, and the business world becomes truly equitable, there won't be a separate, stand-alone list of powerful women but rather powerful executives, period. The primary criteria for the men and women on that list will be performance, instead of gender. Now that would represent real progress.

    DeAnne Aguirre is a senior partner with Booz & Company based in San Francisco. She leads the firm's work in organizational and talent effectiveness.