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股票很诱人,但债券市场的机会更难得

WILL DANIEL
2024-06-19

随着债券终于能提供稳健的收益率,一些全球顶级固定收益投资者认为,这是二三十年里最适合投资债券的时机。

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Nuveen固定收益首席投资官安德斯·佩尔松。图片来源:COURTESY OF NUVEEN

近年来,超高回报和人工智能的承诺吸引了投资者还有“僵尸股”投机者纷纷入市。不过债券市场里情况完全不同。

2008年金融危机后和新冠疫情期间,有近十年时间美联储一直保持接近零利率,2022年3月开始大幅加息以对抗通胀。由于债券价格和收益率(随美联储基金利率变化)之间呈反比,固定收益市场陷入痛苦的熊市。

距债券市场上一次创历史新高已经46个月,彭博综合债券指数(Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index)比2020年7月的峰值下跌了约50%。但随着债券终于能提供稳健的收益率,一些全球顶级固定收益投资者认为,这是二三十年里最适合投资债券的时机。

“现在这个入市时间点吸引力非常非常大,”全球资产管理公司Nuveen的固定收益首席投资官安德斯·佩尔松最近在一次采访中告诉《财富》杂志。“我的意思是,基本上来说当前收益率超过15年来最有吸引力的水平。”

贝莱德(BlackRock)全球固定收益首席投资官兼资产配置团队负责人瑞克·里德尔指出,美联储加息本质上“让固定收益重获收益”。

“现在可以创建收益率接近7%,波动性相当温和的投资组合。已经有几十年做不到了,”上个月他接受《财富》杂志采访时表示。

投资者锁定收益率后,如果今年晚些时候或明年美联储开始降息,债券价格也可能上涨。债市专家表示,现在是稳定收入和价格升值相结合的黄金机会。

债券投资者为何看好

佩尔松和里德尔管理的资产约达2.8万亿美元,比NBA所有球队加起来总价值还要高23倍。尽管PIMCO联合创始人兼“债券大王”比尔·格罗斯警告称,如果不降息以提振价格,债券市场投资者将只是“剪息票”,也就是靠收益率收取利息收入,然而两人都很看好债券。

因为很多细分行业的折扣都很诱人。

“更广泛的固定收益6%左右,优先股收益7%,高收益8%,还有优先贷款收益近10%,从历史的角度来看,真算得上非常有吸引力的入门水平,”Nuveen的佩尔松强调。

他补充道,从历史上看,固定收益投资者未来的总回报率与开始投资时的收益率之间高度相关。在这一点上,纽约大学斯特恩商学院(NYU Stern)的年度回报图显示,美联储加息周期达到峰值后(即收益率高时),债券回报往往能跑赢其他资产。

例如,1981年时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克为对抗失控的通胀将利率提高到19%的峰值后,公司债券连续五年为投资者提供的收益率超过15%,五年中有三年表现比股票强。

里德尔还表示,债券价格有较大升值潜力,因为一旦数据最终证实美联储已战胜通胀,就可能迎来降息。

佩尔松预计今年会有一两次降息,他表示,如果经济开始崩溃,美联储将不得不积极降息。“然后会得到投资总回报,或资本增值,”他告诉《财富》杂志并补充道,“多数情况下,未来12个月有望获得相当不错的回报。”

还有证据表明,即便利率维持现状,美联储维持目前的观望模式比预期中更久,债券仍可能跑赢其他资产。去年夏天LPL Financial首席固定收益策略师劳伦斯·吉勒姆发给客户的一份报告中指出,在美联储历史上暂停加息期间,彭博综合债券指数往往表现良好。

“1984年以来,一旦美联储停止加息,核心债券的6个月和1年平均收益率分别为8%和13%。此外,各期限债券在6个月、1年和3年内均为正收益,”他写道。

在里德尔看来,这就是当前美联储按兵不动,对固定收益投资者来说是“宜居带”的原因之一。“由于通胀相对稳定,现在可以按较低价格买入信贷资产,简直是天赐良机,”他解释道。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

近年来,超高回报和人工智能的承诺吸引了投资者还有“僵尸股”投机者纷纷入市。不过债券市场里情况完全不同。

2008年金融危机后和新冠疫情期间,有近十年时间美联储一直保持接近零利率,2022年3月开始大幅加息以对抗通胀。由于债券价格和收益率(随美联储基金利率变化)之间呈反比,固定收益市场陷入痛苦的熊市。

距债券市场上一次创历史新高已经46个月,彭博综合债券指数(Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index)比2020年7月的峰值下跌了约50%。但随着债券终于能提供稳健的收益率,一些全球顶级固定收益投资者认为,这是二三十年里最适合投资债券的时机。

“现在这个入市时间点吸引力非常非常大,”全球资产管理公司Nuveen的固定收益首席投资官安德斯·佩尔松最近在一次采访中告诉《财富》杂志。“我的意思是,基本上来说当前收益率超过15年来最有吸引力的水平。”

贝莱德(BlackRock)全球固定收益首席投资官兼资产配置团队负责人瑞克·里德尔指出,美联储加息本质上“让固定收益重获收益”。

“现在可以创建收益率接近7%,波动性相当温和的投资组合。已经有几十年做不到了,”上个月他接受《财富》杂志采访时表示。

投资者锁定收益率后,如果今年晚些时候或明年美联储开始降息,债券价格也可能上涨。债市专家表示,现在是稳定收入和价格升值相结合的黄金机会。

债券投资者为何看好

佩尔松和里德尔管理的资产约达2.8万亿美元,比NBA所有球队加起来总价值还要高23倍。尽管PIMCO联合创始人兼“债券大王”比尔·格罗斯警告称,如果不降息以提振价格,债券市场投资者将只是“剪息票”,也就是靠收益率收取利息收入,然而两人都很看好债券。

因为很多细分行业的折扣都很诱人。

“更广泛的固定收益6%左右,优先股收益7%,高收益8%,还有优先贷款收益近10%,从历史的角度来看,真算得上非常有吸引力的入门水平,”Nuveen的佩尔松强调。

他补充道,从历史上看,固定收益投资者未来的总回报率与开始投资时的收益率之间高度相关。在这一点上,纽约大学斯特恩商学院(NYU Stern)的年度回报图显示,美联储加息周期达到峰值后(即收益率高时),债券回报往往能跑赢其他资产。

例如,1981年时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克为对抗失控的通胀将利率提高到19%的峰值后,公司债券连续五年为投资者提供的收益率超过15%,五年中有三年表现比股票强。

里德尔还表示,债券价格有较大升值潜力,因为一旦数据最终证实美联储已战胜通胀,就可能迎来降息。

佩尔松预计今年会有一两次降息,他表示,如果经济开始崩溃,美联储将不得不积极降息。“然后会得到投资总回报,或资本增值,”他告诉《财富》杂志并补充道,“多数情况下,未来12个月有望获得相当不错的回报。”

还有证据表明,即便利率维持现状,美联储维持目前的观望模式比预期中更久,债券仍可能跑赢其他资产。去年夏天LPL Financial首席固定收益策略师劳伦斯·吉勒姆发给客户的一份报告中指出,在美联储历史上暂停加息期间,彭博综合债券指数往往表现良好。

“1984年以来,一旦美联储停止加息,核心债券的6个月和1年平均收益率分别为8%和13%。此外,各期限债券在6个月、1年和3年内均为正收益,”他写道。

在里德尔看来,这就是当前美联储按兵不动,对固定收益投资者来说是“宜居带”的原因之一。“由于通胀相对稳定,现在可以按较低价格买入信贷资产,简直是天赐良机,”他解释道。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

Supercharged returns and the promise of AI have drawn investors—and meme-stock speculators—to equity markets in recent years. But it’s been a very different story for the bond market.

After keeping interest rates near zero for almost a decade after the Great Financial Crisis and again during the COVID era, the Federal Reserve began aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation in March 2022. That led to a painful fixed-income bear market due to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields (which move with the Fed funds rate).

It’s now been 46 months since the bond market last reached a record high, and the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is down roughly 50% from that July 2020 peak. But with bonds finally offering solid yields, some of the world’s top fixed-income investors believe this is the best time in a generation to get into bonds.

“The entry point is just very, very attractive,” Anders Persson, CIO of fixed income at the global asset manager Nuveen, told Fortune in a recent interview. “I mean, basically, yields, as you know well, are the most attractive that we’ve seen in 15 plus years.”

As Rick Rieder, global CIO of fixed income and head of the asset allocation team at BlackRock, noted, the Fed’s rate hikes have essentially “put the fixed back into fixed income.”

“You can create a portfolio with a close to 7% yield with volatility that’s pretty moderate. It’s been decades since you’ve been able to do that,” he told Fortune last month.

After investors lock in those yields, bond prices could also rally when the Fed starts cutting rates later this year or next. It’s a golden opportunity for a mix of steady income and price appreciation, according to these bond market gurus.

Why the bond investors are bullish

Persson and Rieder—who are collectively responsible for roughly $2.8 trillion in assets, or about 23 times more than the value of every NBA team put together—are bullish on bonds even as PIMCO co-founder and “bond king” Bill Gross has cautioned that without rate cuts to boost prices, bond market investors will merely be “clipping coupons,” or collecting interest income from yields.

Those coupons are quite juicy in many sub sectors.

“When you’re looking at 6% or so for broader fixed income, 7% for preferred, 8% for high yield, and almost 10% for senior loans, those entry levels are really, really attractive from a historic basis,” Nuveen’s Persson emphasized.

He added that, historically, there’s a high correlation between future total returns for fixed-income investors and how high yields were when they began investing. To that point, NYU Stern’s annual return chart shows that bonds tend to outperform after peaks in the Fed’s hiking cycles (i.e. when yields are high).

Corporate bonds, for example, offered 15%-plus returns to investors for five straight years after then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker famously raised interest rates to a peak of 19% in 1981 to fight runaway inflation. And they outperformed stocks three out of five of those years as well.

Rieder also said there’s serious price appreciation potential in bonds because rate cuts are likely on the way once data eventually confirms the Fed has defeated inflation.

Persson, who is forecasting one or two rate cuts this year, said that if the economy starts to crack, the Fed will have to cut aggressively. “And then you get the total return aspect, or the capital appreciation side, of that investment,” he told Fortune, adding that “in most scenarios, you’re seeing a pretty healthy return potential here over the next 12 months.”

There is also evidence that bonds could still outperform even if interest rates stay where they are, with the Fed maintaining its current wait-and-see mode for longer than expected. In a note to clients last summer, LPL Financial’s chief fixed income strategist, Lawrence Gillum, noted that the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index has performed well during periods when the Fed has paused its rate hikes historically.

“Since 1984, core bonds were able to generate average 6-month and 1-year returns of 8% and 13%, respectively, after the Fed stopped raising rates. Moreover, all periods generated positive returns over the 6-month, 1-year, and 3-year horizons,” he wrote.

For Rieder, that’s one reason why the current environment, where the Fed is stuck in a holding pattern, is a Goldilocks zone for fixed income investors. “You have this incredible gift, because inflation is staying where it is, we’re getting to buy credit assets cheaper than we should be,” he explained.

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