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那些为从9月份开始的渐进式降息做好准备的债券交易员正加大押注力度,以防美国经济突然下滑迫使美联储采取更激进的措施。
随着美国国债连续第三个月走高,投资者完全定价今年至少两次降息25个基点,这样的预期略高于美联储政策制定者的预测。在衍生品市场上,一些交易员甚至进一步押注,如果美联储采取大胆举措,在9月中旬降息50个基点,或者更早开始降息,他们就会获得回报。
尽管这仍是一种例外情况,但有证据表明,企业和消费者正感受到基准利率达到二十年高位所带来的压力,因此围绕采取降息举措必要性的猜测已经得到了支持。即使通胀率有所回落,但投资者越来越担心劳动力市场即将出现问题——美联储官员表示,他们将对此保持关注。7月政策会议和9月政策会议之间的漫长时间间隔增加了风险。
布兰迪全球投资管理公司(Brandywine Global Investment Management)投资组合经理杰克·麦金太尔(Jack McIntyre)表示:“可以说,如果劳动力市场出现更多疲软迹象,那么经济状况就会更糟糕,这将促使美联储加大降息力度。我们不知道的是,这将是一个怎样的降息周期。”
上周,当纽约联储前主席杜德利(William Dudley)和穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示,美联储长期维持过高的利率,犯错的风险很高,杜德利甚至呼吁在本周的政策会议上采取行动时,焦虑情绪达到了新水平。两人都是“彭博观点”专栏作家。
仅这一评论就足以令市场骚动,导致对政策敏感的美国短期国债收益率以所谓的“趋陡”模式暴跌,这是宽松周期之前的惯例。尽管如此,有关失业救济申请、美国经济增长和消费者支出的环保数据仍有助于支持美联储本周按兵不动。
该数据“消除了美联储必须采取行动的紧迫性”,国民西敏寺银行(Natwest Markets)美国主管米歇尔·吉拉德(Michelle Girard)周四对彭博电视台表示。“美联储不想显得惊慌失措。”
尽管近期大选担忧引发了一些动荡,但对即将降息的预期提振了美国国债的整体走势,使收益率从4月下旬创下的峰值明显回落。彭博美国国债指数本月触及两年高点,并有望在7月底实现连续三个月上涨,上一次出现这种情况是在2021年年中。
一年来,政策制定者将目标利率维持在5.25%-5.5%的水平,同时等待通胀持续降温的迹象。随着物价似乎朝着正确的方向发展——周五公布的数据显示,美联储青睐的通胀指标在6月份以温和的速度上升——他们已经开始更加重视其所谓的双重使命的另一面:充分就业。
在这方面,未来几个月将至关重要——包括下周的就业报告。DWS Americas固定收益部门主管乔治·卡特拉姆伯恩(George Catrambone)表示,实质性疲软的证据“可能会重新引发人们对软着陆的质疑,美联储可能会落后于曲线,错失7月份降息的机会。”
由于市场普遍预期美联储将按兵不动,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)可能会在周三的新闻发布会上提出新的经济担忧或政策调整。
如果他开始为比预期更大幅度的降息奠定基础,那将发出一个可怕的信号:只有在2001年初互联网泡沫破裂和2007年9月金融危机爆发之后,美联储才降息50个基点,开启了后来的大规模宽松周期。
摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)预计不会出现这样的转折。在周五的一份报告中,他预计鲍威尔将“避免指出首次降息的任何具体会议”。至于回答关于本月不降息的问题,鲍威尔可能会说,美联储行长们希望得到通胀方面取得进展的进一步证据。
三菱日联金融集团美国宏观策略主管乔治·冈卡尔维斯认为,到9月,更多经济疲软的迹象可能促使美联储采取先发制人的应对措施。
冈卡尔维斯说:“从数据的走势来看,这种缓慢而稳步的降息想法毫无意义。等待的时间越长,以后需要做的事情就越多。”
市场上的一些人认为,不确定性足以让他们下注预防措施。最近几周,交易员们利用与有担保隔夜融资利率(Secured Overnight Financing Rate,密切跟踪美联储政策预期)挂钩的期权,为可能出现的情况做准备,比如最早从7月份开始下调25个基点,或者在9月份下调50个基点。
天利投资(Columbia Threadneedle Investment)的利率策略师艾德·阿尔-胡赛尼(Ed Al-Hussainy)表示:“当25个基点的降息被完全定价时,你只有两个选择。你可以定价不降息,也可以定价50个基点的降息。”
华盛顿政策分析公司LH Meyer的经济学家德里克·唐(Derek Tang)说,就目前而言,“宏观形势目前不需要,甚至不能证明”快速宽松政策是合理的。他表示,官员们更有可能选择每次会议降息25个基点,即每季度降息50个基点,然后再尝试降息50个基点这样的激进举措。
阿尔-胡赛尼说,从搁置一年多到“突然降息50个基点,这意味着出现状况了,而且情况不妙。” (财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
那些为从9月份开始的渐进式降息做好准备的债券交易员正加大押注力度,以防美国经济突然下滑迫使美联储采取更激进的措施。
随着美国国债连续第三个月走高,投资者完全定价今年至少两次降息25个基点,这样的预期略高于美联储政策制定者的预测。在衍生品市场上,一些交易员甚至进一步押注,如果美联储采取大胆举措,在9月中旬降息50个基点,或者更早开始降息,他们就会获得回报。
尽管这仍是一种例外情况,但有证据表明,企业和消费者正感受到基准利率达到二十年高位所带来的压力,因此围绕采取降息举措必要性的猜测已经得到了支持。即使通胀率有所回落,但投资者越来越担心劳动力市场即将出现问题——美联储官员表示,他们将对此保持关注。7月政策会议和9月政策会议之间的漫长时间间隔增加了风险。
布兰迪全球投资管理公司(Brandywine Global Investment Management)投资组合经理杰克·麦金太尔(Jack McIntyre)表示:“可以说,如果劳动力市场出现更多疲软迹象,那么经济状况就会更糟糕,这将促使美联储加大降息力度。我们不知道的是,这将是一个怎样的降息周期。”
上周,当纽约联储前主席杜德利(William Dudley)和穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示,美联储长期维持过高的利率,犯错的风险很高,杜德利甚至呼吁在本周的政策会议上采取行动时,焦虑情绪达到了新水平。两人都是“彭博观点”专栏作家。
仅这一评论就足以令市场骚动,导致对政策敏感的美国短期国债收益率以所谓的“趋陡”模式暴跌,这是宽松周期之前的惯例。尽管如此,有关失业救济申请、美国经济增长和消费者支出的环保数据仍有助于支持美联储本周按兵不动。
该数据“消除了美联储必须采取行动的紧迫性”,国民西敏寺银行(Natwest Markets)美国主管米歇尔·吉拉德(Michelle Girard)周四对彭博电视台表示。“美联储不想显得惊慌失措。”
尽管近期大选担忧引发了一些动荡,但对即将降息的预期提振了美国国债的整体走势,使收益率从4月下旬创下的峰值明显回落。彭博美国国债指数本月触及两年高点,并有望在7月底实现连续三个月上涨,上一次出现这种情况是在2021年年中。
一年来,政策制定者将目标利率维持在5.25%-5.5%的水平,同时等待通胀持续降温的迹象。随着物价似乎朝着正确的方向发展——周五公布的数据显示,美联储青睐的通胀指标在6月份以温和的速度上升——他们已经开始更加重视其所谓的双重使命的另一面:充分就业。
在这方面,未来几个月将至关重要——包括下周的就业报告。DWS Americas固定收益部门主管乔治·卡特拉姆伯恩(George Catrambone)表示,实质性疲软的证据“可能会重新引发人们对软着陆的质疑,美联储可能会落后于曲线,错失7月份降息的机会。”
由于市场普遍预期美联储将按兵不动,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)可能会在周三的新闻发布会上提出新的经济担忧或政策调整。
如果他开始为比预期更大幅度的降息奠定基础,那将发出一个可怕的信号:只有在2001年初互联网泡沫破裂和2007年9月金融危机爆发之后,美联储才降息50个基点,开启了后来的大规模宽松周期。
摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)预计不会出现这样的转折。在周五的一份报告中,他预计鲍威尔将“避免指出首次降息的任何具体会议”。至于回答关于本月不降息的问题,鲍威尔可能会说,美联储行长们希望得到通胀方面取得进展的进一步证据。
三菱日联金融集团美国宏观策略主管乔治·冈卡尔维斯认为,到9月,更多经济疲软的迹象可能促使美联储采取先发制人的应对措施。
冈卡尔维斯说:“从数据的走势来看,这种缓慢而稳步的降息想法毫无意义。等待的时间越长,以后需要做的事情就越多。”
市场上的一些人认为,不确定性足以让他们下注预防措施。最近几周,交易员们利用与有担保隔夜融资利率(Secured Overnight Financing Rate,密切跟踪美联储政策预期)挂钩的期权,为可能出现的情况做准备,比如最早从7月份开始下调25个基点,或者在9月份下调50个基点。
天利投资(Columbia Threadneedle Investment)的利率策略师艾德·阿尔-胡赛尼(Ed Al-Hussainy)表示:“当25个基点的降息被完全定价时,你只有两个选择。你可以定价不降息,也可以定价50个基点的降息。”
华盛顿政策分析公司LH Meyer的经济学家德里克·唐(Derek Tang)说,就目前而言,“宏观形势目前不需要,甚至不能证明”快速宽松政策是合理的。他表示,官员们更有可能选择每次会议降息25个基点,即每季度降息50个基点,然后再尝试降息50个基点这样的激进举措。
阿尔-胡赛尼说,从搁置一年多到“突然降息50个基点,这意味着出现状况了,而且情况不妙。” (财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
“This idea of slow and steady cuts makes no sense given how data is shaping up,” said George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG.
MAIRO CINQUETTI—NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES
Bond traders who’ve set themselves up for gradual interest-rate cuts starting in September are ramping up side bets in case a sudden slide in the US economy forces the Federal Reserve to be even more aggressive.
As Treasuries advance for a third-straight month, investors are fully pricing in at least two quarter-point rate reductions this year, slightly more than what policymakers have telegraphed. In the derivatives market, some traders have gone even further with wagers that pay off if central bankers go bold and deliver a half-point cut in mid-September — or start lowering rates sooner.
While still an outlier scenario, speculation around the need for such a move has gained traction amid evidence that companies and consumers are feeling the pinch from two-decade-high benchmark rates. Even as inflation has ebbed, investors are increasingly concerned the labor market is about to crack — something Fed officials said they’ll be attuned to. The sizable time gap between the July policy meeting and September’s adds risk to the equation.
“It’s fair to say that if labor shows more signs of weakening, then the economy is in worse shape and that gets the Fed to cut more,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “What we don’t know is what kind of cutting cycle it will be.”
Anxiety reached a new level last week, when former New York Fed President William Dudley and Mohamed El-Erian said the Fed risks making a mistake by holding rates too high for too long — with Dudley even calling for a move at this week’s policy meeting. Both were writing as Bloomberg Opinion columnists.
The commentary alone was enough to roil the market, sending policy-sensitive short-term US yields tumbling in a so-called steepening pattern, as is customary before an easing cycle. Still, eco-friendly data on jobless claims, US growth and consumer spending helped support the case for the central bank to hold tight this week.
The data “removes the urgency for the Fed to have to act,” Michelle Girard, head of US at Natwest Markets, told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “The Fed does not want to appear panicked.”
Anticipation of imminent rate cuts has buoyed Treasuries overall, sending yields markedly lower from peaks set in late April — despite some recent turbulence sparked by election concerns. A Bloomberg index of US government debt touched a two-year high this month and is poised to end July on a three-month winning streak last seen in mid-2021.
Policymakers have left their target rate at 5.25% to 5.5% for a year while awaiting signs of a sustained cooling in inflation. With prices seemingly headed in the right direction — data released Friday showed the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose at a tame pace in June — they’ve begun placing more emphasis on the other side of their so-called dual mandate: full employment.
On that front, the coming couple of months will be crucial — including next week’s jobs report. Evidence of material weakness “may bring renewed questions about the soft landing and perhaps the Fed falling back behind the curve and missing the opportunity to have cut rates in July,” said George Catrambone, head of fixed income at DWS Americas.
With the Fed widely expected to stand pat, Chair Jerome Powell could use his press conference on Wednesday to raise fresh economic concerns or policy changes.
Should he start laying the groundwork for deeper-than-expected cuts, it would send a dire signal: Only in the wake of the dot-com bubble deflating in early 2001 and the onset of the financial crisis in September 2007 did the Fed deliver half-point reductions to initiate what became big easing cycles.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Michael Feroli doesn’t expect a turn like that. In a note Friday, he said he expects Powell will “steer away from pointing to any specific meeting for the first cut.” As for fielding questions about not cutting this month, Powell could say central bankers want further evidence of progress on inflation, according to the note.
George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG, sees more signs of a weakening economy by September possibly prompting a preemptive response from the Fed.
“This idea of slow and steady cuts makes no sense given how data is shaping up,” Goncalves said. “The longer you wait, the more you may need to do later.”
Some in the market see enough uncertainty to warrant just—in-case bets. Traders in recent weeks have used options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which closely tracks Fed policy expectations, to position themselves for long-shot scenarios such as quarter-point moves starting as early as July, or a half-point cut in September.
“When a 25-basis-point cut is fully priced, you only have two options,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment. “You can position for zero or you can position for 50.”
For now, “the macro picture does currently not demand or even justify” rapid easing, said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer, a policy analysis firm in Washington. He said officials were more likely to opt for quarter-point cuts per meeting — or 50 basis points per quarter — before trying something as drastic as a half-point reduction.
Going from being on hold for more than a year “to suddenly doing 50 means something has hit the fan, and it doesn’t smell good,” said Al-Hussainy.