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美国科技股波动太剧烈,投资指数基金更合理

Alicia Adamczyk
2024-08-03

伯顿·马尔基尔在给投资者的信中表示,试图挑选一个必胜行业,注定会失败。

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图片来源:Spencer Platt—Getty Images

英伟达(Nvidia)和“美股七雄”中的其他科技股,在今年上半年主导了美股市场,这让许多投资者纷纷思考该如何调整投资组合,以充分抓住这波历史行情。但一位资深投资专家建议投资者不要理睬干扰信息,而是专注于基本面。

投资类畅销书《漫步华尔街》(A Random Walk Down Wall Street)的作者伯顿·马尔基尔对《财富》杂志表示,对于普通投资者而言,现在试图投资某些人工智能股,可能是个巨大的错误。不妨看看过去几周美股市场的波动。

马尔基尔现任Wealthfront公司的首席投资官。他表示:“从散户投资者身上可以看到明确的证据,你会看到交易最频繁的人损失最大。没有人能够确定市场时机,不要试图这样做。如果你这样做,你极有可能会预测错误。”

在周二公布的写给Wealthfront投资者的信中,马尔基尔提醒投资者,试图选择一个在股市中遥遥领先的板块,与试图确定市场时机的做法类似,都注定会失败。通过投资积累财富最好的做法,依旧是坚持基本原则,包括“广泛分散投资、指数化投资、最小化成本和税费、重新平衡投资组合和坚持长期投资”。

他写道:“同样重要的是,避免即使最精心策划的投资计划也会出现的常见错误。其中最严重的错误之一是,被整个市场或特定行业表现出的极端狂喜或持续悲观情绪所左右。”

马尔基尔指出,在市场中实现可观投资回报率的最佳方法是买入和长期持有,而不是在当前的热门板块频繁交易。从长远来看,预测市场时机根本不可行;事实上,研究表明,许多投资者试图把握投资时机,却错过了市场上的许多绝佳机会,导致他们无法实现收益最大化。投资者更有可能在低卖高买,而不是高卖低买。

他用方舟创新ETF(ARK Innovation ETF,ARKK)为例证明了这种趋势。该基金的股价从2020年的每股约50美元,到2021年初随着人工智能公司的热度兴起,上涨到超过每股130美元。马尔基尔写道,当股价达到最高点时,投资者开始“每个月向该基金投入数十亿美元”。热情最终消退,ARKK的股价到2022年4月下跌到每股约47美元;投资者纷纷撤资,造成了巨大损失。

他写道:“ARKK的例子证明,即使投资者正确选择了一个表现出色的板块,但时机错误可能导致亏损。”

马尔基尔建议投资者,不要试图投资最热门的股票,而是要进行定期定额投资,或无论市场表现如何,每个月持续投资。采用这种策略,随着时间的推移,市场的高低波动就会或多或少达到平衡。

在这方面,指数基金依旧是最佳选择。广泛的基金也解决了挑选行业的问题,因为它们能够有效覆盖回报率最高的行业。

他写道:“持有广泛指数基金的好处在于,你的投资组合中可能包括表现优异的人工智能公司。”

马尔基尔鼓励投资者,不要试图选股,而是要专注于自身可以控制的因素,包括投资成本。最大程度降低费用和税费,这将对投资的长期表现产生积极影响。

他说道:“积累财富的长远之道是坚持投资。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

英伟达(Nvidia)和“美股七雄”中的其他科技股,在今年上半年主导了美股市场,这让许多投资者纷纷思考该如何调整投资组合,以充分抓住这波历史行情。但一位资深投资专家建议投资者不要理睬干扰信息,而是专注于基本面。

投资类畅销书《漫步华尔街》(A Random Walk Down Wall Street)的作者伯顿·马尔基尔对《财富》杂志表示,对于普通投资者而言,现在试图投资某些人工智能股,可能是个巨大的错误。不妨看看过去几周美股市场的波动。

马尔基尔现任Wealthfront公司的首席投资官。他表示:“从散户投资者身上可以看到明确的证据,你会看到交易最频繁的人损失最大。没有人能够确定市场时机,不要试图这样做。如果你这样做,你极有可能会预测错误。”

在周二公布的写给Wealthfront投资者的信中,马尔基尔提醒投资者,试图选择一个在股市中遥遥领先的板块,与试图确定市场时机的做法类似,都注定会失败。通过投资积累财富最好的做法,依旧是坚持基本原则,包括“广泛分散投资、指数化投资、最小化成本和税费、重新平衡投资组合和坚持长期投资”。

他写道:“同样重要的是,避免即使最精心策划的投资计划也会出现的常见错误。其中最严重的错误之一是,被整个市场或特定行业表现出的极端狂喜或持续悲观情绪所左右。”

马尔基尔指出,在市场中实现可观投资回报率的最佳方法是买入和长期持有,而不是在当前的热门板块频繁交易。从长远来看,预测市场时机根本不可行;事实上,研究表明,许多投资者试图把握投资时机,却错过了市场上的许多绝佳机会,导致他们无法实现收益最大化。投资者更有可能在低卖高买,而不是高卖低买。

他用方舟创新ETF(ARK Innovation ETF,ARKK)为例证明了这种趋势。该基金的股价从2020年的每股约50美元,到2021年初随着人工智能公司的热度兴起,上涨到超过每股130美元。马尔基尔写道,当股价达到最高点时,投资者开始“每个月向该基金投入数十亿美元”。热情最终消退,ARKK的股价到2022年4月下跌到每股约47美元;投资者纷纷撤资,造成了巨大损失。

他写道:“ARKK的例子证明,即使投资者正确选择了一个表现出色的板块,但时机错误可能导致亏损。”

马尔基尔建议投资者,不要试图投资最热门的股票,而是要进行定期定额投资,或无论市场表现如何,每个月持续投资。采用这种策略,随着时间的推移,市场的高低波动就会或多或少达到平衡。

在这方面,指数基金依旧是最佳选择。广泛的基金也解决了挑选行业的问题,因为它们能够有效覆盖回报率最高的行业。

他写道:“持有广泛指数基金的好处在于,你的投资组合中可能包括表现优异的人工智能公司。”

马尔基尔鼓励投资者,不要试图选股,而是要专注于自身可以控制的因素,包括投资成本。最大程度降低费用和税费,这将对投资的长期表现产生积极影响。

他说道:“积累财富的长远之道是坚持投资。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Nvidia and the rest of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks dominated the markets during the first half of the year, leaving many investors to wonder how they can tweak their portfolio to best take advantage of the historic runs. But a longtime investing expert is encouraging investors to tune out the noise and focus on the fundamentals.

Burton Malkiel, author of the bestselling investing book A Random Walk Down Wall Street, tells Fortune that trying to get in on individual AI stocks now could be a big mistake for the average investor. Just look at the shakiness of the markets over the past few weeks.

“There is such clear evidence by looking at individual investors, you see the ones who traded the most are the ones who lost the most money,” says Malkiel, who is now Wealthfront’s chief investment officer. “Nobody can time the market, don’t try to do it. And if you do, you are much more likely to get it wrong than get it right.”

In a letter to Wealthfront investors released Tuesday, Malkiel reminds readers that trying to pick a sector of the stock market that will outperform the rest is akin to trying to time the market: a losing prospect. The best practices for building wealth via investing remain the basics, including “broad diversification, indexing, minimizing costs and taxes, rebalancing, and staying the course.”

“Equally important is to avoid the common mistakes that have crushed even the best-laid investment plans,” he writes. “Among the worst mistakes is to get swept up in either extreme euphoria or in waves of unrelenting pessimism, both when it comes to the market as a whole and the performance of specific sectors.”

Malkiel notes that the best way to actually earn a decent rate of return from investing in the broader market is by buying and holding for long periods of time—not jumping in and out of the hot sector of the moment. Timing rarely works out long term; in fact, research has shown that many investors miss out on many of the best days of the market when they try to time their investments, preventing them from realizing the biggest gains. Investors are much more likely to sell at the bottom and buy at the top than the reverse.

He uses the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) to exemplify that trend. The fund went from selling for around $50 a share in 2020 to over $130 a share in early 2021, after interest in artificial intelligence companies took off. Investors started “pouring several billion dollars per month into the fund,” Malkiel writes, when prices were at their peak. The enthusiasm eventually subsided, and ARKK’s price fell back to around $47 a share by April 2022; investors withdrew their money, leading to major losses.

“As the ARKK example demonstrates, even when investors correctly pick a high-performing sector, timing errors can lead to negative returns,” he writes.

Instead of trying to get in on the buzziest stocks, Malkiel encourages investors to stick with dollar-cost averaging, or consistently investing money each month regardless of what the market is doing. With this strategy, over time, the highs and lows more or less even out.

In that regard, index funds are still king. And a broad-based fund solves the problem of picking sectors as well, because they give meaningful exposure to the sectors producing the best returns.

“The beauty of owning a broad index is that you’re likely to get exposure to that AI winner in your portfolio anyway,” he writes.

Rather than trying to pick stocks, Malkiel encourages investors to focus on what they can control, including the cost of their investments. Keep fund fees and taxes minimal, and that will have more of a positive effect long-term on their performance.

“The long-run way to build wealth is to just keep on going,” he says.

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