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我们正处于一个奇怪的时代。上周五,我们看到一份不及预期的就业数据报告;本周一,全球股市遭遇崩盘。唯一的亮点是,抵押贷款周利率降至2月份以来的最低水平,这对潜在购房者或一直等待重新贷款或出售房产的人来说是个好消息。抵押贷款利率甚至可能进一步下降,因为美联储9月份几乎肯定会进行一次降息。即便如此,也无法解决美国面临的住房可负担性危机。
当前的市场仍不稳定。首先,如果失业率继续攀升,抵押贷款利率下降的作用就会减弱。如果不工作没有收入,购买房屋就会很困难。此外,抵押贷款利率仍未达到大约6%或以下的神奇数字或最佳水平,因此现在可能不足以让所有观望者回到市场。不管怎样,重要的是,目前处于20多年高位的联邦基金利率也会影响借贷成本。目前存在很多不确定性,即使降息,也不会有效解决美国仍然没有足够的住房来容纳所有人口的问题。
在最近发布的一份题为《9月降息不足以缓解住房可负担性危机》(A September rate cut is not enough to relieve the housing affordability crisis)的分析报告中,穆迪的一位经济学家解释说,无论是降息0.5个百分点还是0.25个百分点,债券市场已经消化了降息带来的正面提振。30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率与10年期美国国债的收益率相关,后者已降至约3.7%,为2023年5月以来的最低水平。固定利率抵押贷款和国债收益率通常像葡萄酒和奶酪一样相配,但这一切将如何影响房地产市场还远不能确定。
简单来说,美联储降息是为了刺激经济,这样就可以产生更多借贷。如果美联储长时间不降息,一些人会担心经济出现硬着陆;但如果降息太快,一些人又会担心通货膨胀会反弹。这两种情况都不利于房地产市场的发展。
经济学家尼克•维拉写道:“即使在9月可能会出现本轮加息周期后的首次降息,联邦基金利率仍将处于限制性区间,需要进一步降息,才能帮助房地产市场恢复到更加平衡的状态。”
美联储两年多前开始加息,导致抵押贷款利率飙升,疫情期间的抵押贷款利率历史低点也已经成为过去。去年10月,抵押贷款日利率达到8.03%,此后一直下降,特别是在经济数据疲软的推动下,最近几天更是如此。昨天,抵押贷款日利率跌至52周以来的低点6.34%(不过今天又回升至6.52%)。但抵押贷款利率只是其中一个影响因素。在所有抵押贷款利率波动之前,房价已大幅上涨。即使房价上涨速度放缓,情况也没有逆转,市场没有恢复到平衡状态。他写道,“租房成本约15年都高于买房成本,现在买房成本高过了租房成本,” 而且两者之间的差距最终达到了有记录以来的最高点。
维拉继续写道:“降息肯定会有所帮助,但根据截至2024年6月的现房中位数价格,30年期固定抵押贷款利率降低25至50个基点并不足以扭转局面,使租房成本再次超过买房成本。大致来说,根据中位数房价,30年期固定抵押贷款利率需要降至5.25%以下才能达到扭转局面的效果。”(根据截至6月的最新可用数据,现房的中位数售价为426,900美元;新房的中位数售价为417,300美元。)
解决方案在于供给,而影响供给的主要有两个因素:锁定效应和多年来房屋建设不足导致的住房短缺。前者是一个暂时现象。维拉解释称,因为抵押贷款利率快速大幅上涨,基本上任何已经锁定低利率的人都不愿意放弃低利率卖掉房子,这“阻止了更多房源进入市场”。幸运的是,目前的房源供应量比两年前有所增加。(维拉引用全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)的数据指出,2022年1月,房源售出周期仅为1.6个月(房源售出周期指按当前销售速度计算,卖掉存量房所需的月份数)。而到了今年6月,房源售出周期增加到了4.1个月。6个月被认为是供需平衡的标准。)但众所周知,我们看到现房中位数售价再次创下历史新高。
维拉写道:“虽然较低的抵押贷款利率可能会释放更多的房源供应,但归根结底,美国存在结构性住房赤字,需要继续建造更多的房屋。自全球金融危机以来,美国多年的房屋建设不足,导致预计至少有190万套的住房短缺。”
多个不同的估算均显示,全美短缺的住房数量为数百万套。根据穆迪的分析,美国去年建造了更多住房,而今年预计也将是一个建造势头强劲的年份,但仅凭这些加上一次降息并不足以解决所有问题。美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔本人在三月初也曾明确表示:“随着经济和利率的正常化,与低利率抵押贷款锁定以及高抵押贷款利率相关的问题,会逐步缓解。但我们仍会面临全国性的住房短缺问题。”(财富中文网)
翻译:郝秀
审校:汪皓
我们正处于一个奇怪的时代。上周五,我们看到一份不及预期的就业数据报告;本周一,全球股市遭遇崩盘。唯一的亮点是,抵押贷款周利率降至2月份以来的最低水平,这对潜在购房者或一直等待重新贷款或出售房产的人来说是个好消息。抵押贷款利率甚至可能进一步下降,因为美联储9月份几乎肯定会进行一次降息。即便如此,也无法解决美国面临的住房可负担性危机。
当前的市场仍不稳定。首先,如果失业率继续攀升,抵押贷款利率下降的作用就会减弱。如果不工作没有收入,购买房屋就会很困难。此外,抵押贷款利率仍未达到大约6%或以下的神奇数字或最佳水平,因此现在可能不足以让所有观望者回到市场。不管怎样,重要的是,目前处于20多年高位的联邦基金利率也会影响借贷成本。目前存在很多不确定性,即使降息,也不会有效解决美国仍然没有足够的住房来容纳所有人口的问题。
在最近发布的一份题为《9月降息不足以缓解住房可负担性危机》(A September rate cut is not enough to relieve the housing affordability crisis)的分析报告中,穆迪的一位经济学家解释说,无论是降息0.5个百分点还是0.25个百分点,债券市场已经消化了降息带来的正面提振。30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率与10年期美国国债的收益率相关,后者已降至约3.7%,为2023年5月以来的最低水平。固定利率抵押贷款和国债收益率通常像葡萄酒和奶酪一样相配,但这一切将如何影响房地产市场还远不能确定。
简单来说,美联储降息是为了刺激经济,这样就可以产生更多借贷。如果美联储长时间不降息,一些人会担心经济出现硬着陆;但如果降息太快,一些人又会担心通货膨胀会反弹。这两种情况都不利于房地产市场的发展。
经济学家尼克•维拉写道:“即使在9月可能会出现本轮加息周期后的首次降息,联邦基金利率仍将处于限制性区间,需要进一步降息,才能帮助房地产市场恢复到更加平衡的状态。”
美联储两年多前开始加息,导致抵押贷款利率飙升,疫情期间的抵押贷款利率历史低点也已经成为过去。去年10月,抵押贷款日利率达到8.03%,此后一直下降,特别是在经济数据疲软的推动下,最近几天更是如此。昨天,抵押贷款日利率跌至52周以来的低点6.34%(不过今天又回升至6.52%)。但抵押贷款利率只是其中一个影响因素。在所有抵押贷款利率波动之前,房价已大幅上涨。即使房价上涨速度放缓,情况也没有逆转,市场没有恢复到平衡状态。他写道,“租房成本约15年都高于买房成本,现在买房成本高过了租房成本,” 而且两者之间的差距最终达到了有记录以来的最高点。
维拉继续写道:“降息肯定会有所帮助,但根据截至2024年6月的现房中位数价格,30年期固定抵押贷款利率降低25至50个基点并不足以扭转局面,使租房成本再次超过买房成本。大致来说,根据中位数房价,30年期固定抵押贷款利率需要降至5.25%以下才能达到扭转局面的效果。”(根据截至6月的最新可用数据,现房的中位数售价为426,900美元;新房的中位数售价为417,300美元。)
解决方案在于供给,而影响供给的主要有两个因素:锁定效应和多年来房屋建设不足导致的住房短缺。前者是一个暂时现象。维拉解释称,因为抵押贷款利率快速大幅上涨,基本上任何已经锁定低利率的人都不愿意放弃低利率卖掉房子,这“阻止了更多房源进入市场”。幸运的是,目前的房源供应量比两年前有所增加。(维拉引用全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)的数据指出,2022年1月,房源售出周期仅为1.6个月(房源售出周期指按当前销售速度计算,卖掉存量房所需的月份数)。而到了今年6月,房源售出周期增加到了4.1个月。6个月被认为是供需平衡的标准。)但众所周知,我们看到现房中位数售价再次创下历史新高。
维拉写道:“虽然较低的抵押贷款利率可能会释放更多的房源供应,但归根结底,美国存在结构性住房赤字,需要继续建造更多的房屋。自全球金融危机以来,美国多年的房屋建设不足,导致预计至少有190万套的住房短缺。”
多个不同的估算均显示,全美短缺的住房数量为数百万套。根据穆迪的分析,美国去年建造了更多住房,而今年预计也将是一个建造势头强劲的年份,但仅凭这些加上一次降息并不足以解决所有问题。美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔本人在三月初也曾明确表示:“随着经济和利率的正常化,与低利率抵押贷款锁定以及高抵押贷款利率相关的问题,会逐步缓解。但我们仍会面临全国性的住房短缺问题。”(财富中文网)
翻译:郝秀
审校:汪皓
We’re in some weird times. On Friday, it was a weaker-than-expected jobs report, and on Monday, there was a global stock market meltdown. The one bright spot is that weekly mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since February, so that’s good news for potential homebuyers or those who have been waiting to refinance or sell. They could even fall further because an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September is all but guaranteed. Even so, it won’t fix the country’s housing crisis.
It’s still a volatile market, and for one thing, lower mortgage rates matter less if unemployment continues to rise; it’s hard to buy a home if you’re not working and earning money. Plus, mortgage rates still haven’t hit that magic number or sweet spot at around or under 6%, so it might not be enough to bring everyone on the sidelines back in the game. Either way, it’s important to note the federal funds rate, which is sitting at a more than two-decade high, also influences borrowing costs. The point is, there’s a lot of uncertainty at the moment, and even with an interest rate cut, it won’t magically resolve the fact that there are still not enough homes to house the country’s population.
In a recently published analysis, titled “A September rate cut is not enough to relieve the housing affordability crisis,” a Moody’s economist explained the bond market has already priced in a rate cut, whether it be half a point or a quarter. The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is correlated to yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, which have fallen to roughly 3.7%, the lowest level since May 2023. Fixed-rate mortgages and Treasury yields tend to pair together like wine and cheese. But how this will all affect the housing world is far from certain.
When the Fed cuts interest rates, it’s to stimulate the economy so more borrowing can happen, to put it simply. If the central bank waits too long, some fear the economy is in for a hard landing; if it cuts too quickly, some fear inflation will shoot back up. Neither is good for housing.
“Even with the first potential rate cut of this hiking cycle likely to occur in September, the federal funds rate would still be in restrictive territory with additional cuts needed to help restore the housing market to a more balanced equilibrium,” the economist, Nick Villa, wrote.
The Fed started raising interest rates more than two years ago, and it sent mortgage rates soaring; gone were the historical lows of the pandemic. Daily mortgage rates reached 8.03% in October last year, and they’ve gone down since then, particularly in the last few days on the back of cool and weak economic data. Yesterday daily mortgage rates hit a 52-week low, coming in at 6.34% (although they’re back up to 6.52% today). But that’s only one part of the equation: Before all the mortgage rate drama, home prices rose substantially. That hasn’t reversed, even if home price inflation has slowed. “After roughly 15 years of the cost of renting exceeding the cost of homeownership, the converse became true,” he wrote, and the difference between the two eventually became the highest on record.
Villa continued: “Rate cuts will certainly help, but based on where the median existing home price is as of June 2024, a 25- to 50-bps reduction in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate would not be enough to turn the tables such that renting becomes more expensive again. Roughly speaking, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate would need to drop below 5.25% for this to occur based on a median-priced home.” (The median existing home sale price is $426,900; the median sales price for new homes is $417,300, as of June, the latest available data).
It’s supply, that’s the solution. And there are essentially two things affecting supply: the lock-in effect and years of underbuilding that resulted in a shortfall of homes. The former is a temporary phenomenon. Basically, because mortgage rates rose considerably so swiftly, anyone who locked in a low rate before doesn’t want to sell and give it up, “preventing more supply from being released onto the market,” as Villa explained it. Luckily, there’s more supply at the moment than two years ago. (In January 2022, there was only 1.6 months’ supply—meaning the number of months it would take for inventory to sell at the current sales pace—Villa mentioned, referring to data from the National Association of Realtors, and in June, there was 4.1 months’ supply. Six months is considered balanced.) But it’s no secret that all the while, we’ve seen the median existing home sales price hit all-time high after all-time high.
“While lower mortgage rates are one possibility that could unlock more supply, at the end of the day, the country has a structural housing deficit and needs to continue building more homes,” Villa wrote, bringing us to the latter: “years of underbuilding since the Global Financial Crisis have led to an estimated housing shortage of at least 1.9 million homes.”
There are several various estimates on the extent of how many homes the country is missing, all in the millions. More housing was built last year, and this year is set to be another strong one, according to Moody’s, but that plus an interest rate cut isn’t enough to solve all. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said as much himself: “Problems associated with low rate mortgage [lock-in] and high [mortgage] rates and all that, those will abate as the economy normalizes and as rates normalize,” he said in early March. “But we’ll still be left with a housing market nationally, where there is a housing shortage.”