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谷歌在周一经历了糟糕的一天。一名联邦法官在二十多年来第一起针对大型科技公司的重大反垄断案件中裁定,谷歌在搜索市场上存在非法垄断。由于其在手机和浏览器上的广泛存在,这家科技公司能够在几乎不造成任何后果的情况下提高广告费率。根据美国司法部(Department of Justice)的数据,谷歌在2021年支付了260亿美元以成为大众默认的搜索引擎。
法官阿米特·梅塔(Amit Mehta)在长达286页的判决书中表示:“谷歌的分销协议使其垄断了很大一部分通用搜索服务市场,阻止竞争对手参与竞争。”
谷歌的母公司Alphabet拥有2万亿美元的资产,是科技界一股不可忽视的力量,此案的结果必将对谷歌及其用户以外的实体产生连锁效应。随着该案尘埃落定,科技和反垄断专家表示,该诉讼可能会给科技行业的实体带来连锁反应——无论好坏如何。以下是他们列出的赢家和输家。
赢家
康奈尔大学(Cornell University)资深法学教授乔治·海(George Hay)认为,虽然美国司法部显然是此案的赢家,但美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)也可能从此案中受益。该委员会目前正卷入与苹果(Apple)等其他大型科技公司的诉讼,并准备对英伟达(Nvidia)、微软和OpenAI进行反垄断调查。美国联邦贸易委员会现在的做法与20世纪90年代和2000年代的快速创新时代有所不同,当时该监管机构花了数年时间打击科技垄断企业的迅速崛起。
他在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“这表明,法院愿意对一家占主导地位的公司采取行动,解释它为何占主导地位,并将部分反垄断责任归因于某种占主导地位的原因。”
不过,尽管司法部获得了有利的裁决,谷歌前政策主管、科技业联盟“进步商会”(Chamber of Progress)创始人亚当·科瓦切维奇(Adam Kovacevich)对《财富》杂志表示,科技公司将继续大获全胜,微软很可能成为本案的最大赢家。
他说:"大型科技公司反垄断诉讼的特点是,大赢家往往是另一家大型科技公司。”
科瓦切维奇表示,这起诉讼的结果是,谷歌可能被禁止参与默认交易竞标,这就为其他搜索引擎提供了可乘之机。他认为,由于微软在业界的实力和影响力(市值高达3万亿美元),确保其搜索引擎必应成为一些主要平台的默认搜索引擎应该不成问题。
微软已经公开表示这是目标之一。2023年,首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)在谷歌反垄断案中作证说,与苹果达成协议取代谷歌作为默认浏览器异常艰难。虽然与谷歌相比,必应缺乏强大的用户群,但纳德拉在证词中承诺,该公司将有能力加大对引擎的投资。
对微软而言,这也是一次象征性的胜利。23年前,微软曾在最后一起重大联邦反垄断案件中败诉。2000年,美国司法部裁定微软对个人电脑制造商的限制违反了反垄断法。相对而言,微软毫发无损:2001年乔治·沃克·布什(George W. Bush)就任总统后,该公司有机会了结这起诉讼。此外,微软也得以避免按照法官最初的要求分拆成两家公司。科瓦切维奇说,尽管在案件的补救阶段躲过了一劫,但这家巨头仍希望保持领先地位,让其他大型科技公司也经历它所经历的一切。
他说:"基本上20年来,微软的立场一直是,'我们不认同政府的做法,但他们就是这么对我们的,所以他们也应该这么对谷歌。’”
微软拒绝了《财富》杂志的置评请求。
初创企业加速器Y Combinator公共政策主管卢瑟·洛(Luther Lowe)认为,由于大型科技公司可能会被削弱,即将出台的补救措施可能会让以前无法与谷歌的庞大资源竞争的科技初创公司受益。
他在X上写道:“这一裁决可能会极大地重塑竞争格局,通过削弱谷歌的垄断能力,并在搜索和数字广告领域创造更开放的竞争环境,使‘小型科技公司’受益。”
科瓦切维奇并不这么认为。虽然像DuckDuckGo这样的小型搜索引擎网站可能面临的竞争较少,但根据该案的补救措施,要想提高市场份额还很难。由于这些规模较小的科技公司缺乏微软和谷歌的资金支持,它们的产品根本没有那么强大,用户友好性也乏善可陈。
科瓦切维奇说:“但你如何迫使消费者选择某个较差的搜索引擎呢?”
DuckDuckGo在一份声明中告诉《财富》杂志,它确实提供了一个有竞争力的搜索引擎替代品,并对美国司法部在反垄断案中的裁决表示赞赏。
该公司表示:"我们已经走过了一个关键的里程碑,但仍需要书写许多历史,谷歌将尽其所能阻碍进步,因此我们希望看到强有力的补救措施审判,能够真正深入挖掘所有细节,提出一系列切实有效的补救措施,并建立监督机构进行管理。”
输家
谷歌诉讼裁决可能会对三星(Samsung)和苹果产生重大影响,原因是这两家公司为将谷歌作为默认搜索引擎支付了巨额费用。苹果仅在2022年就支付了200亿美元,将谷歌作为Safari的默认搜索栏。梅塔在听证会上辩称,这些协议不利于竞争,占搜索市场94.9%的份额。在做出裁决后,这些协议的前景尚不明朗。
科瓦切维奇说,虽然两家科技公司,尤其是苹果可能会受到反垄断案结果的最直接影响,但最大的输家可能是Mozilla。当用户在Mozilla的火狐浏览器中输入问题进行搜索查询时,它会将其转到谷歌。根据Mozilla 2021-2022年的财务报表,Mozilla与谷歌的交易利润丰厚,占其5.93亿美元收入中的5.1亿美元。据科瓦切维奇称,Mozilla严重依赖谷歌参与默认交易竞标。如果谷歌无法再参与默认交易,那么微软等替代者就不再愿意为使用必应的平台支付那么高的费用。这可能会影响Mozilla对谷歌的财务依赖,原因是谷歌的竞标减少,Mozilla的收入也会减少。
科瓦切维奇说:"Mozilla从谷歌的竞标中获益,因此我认为这几乎肯定会消失。”
Mozilla表示正在密切关注此案,以评估其对公司的影响。
Mozilla发言人周一在一份声明中告诉《财富》杂志:"Mozilla一直倡导网络竞争和选择,尤其是在搜索领域。火狐浏览器将继续提供一系列搜索选项,并将继续致力于满足用户的偏好,同时促进市场竞争。"
随着默认搜索引擎可能发生变化的传言,对谷歌搜索栏非常满意的用户也可能会感到不便。更严重的后果可能是,人们会对其他平台感到失望,从而彻底离开这些平台。
用户反叛已有先例。2014年,作为一项价值3.75亿美元的五年协议的一部分,Mozilla将其火狐浏览器的默认搜索工具从谷歌换成了雅虎。然而,与其竞争对手相比,雅虎的体验质量相形见绌,用户直接放弃使用该浏览器。Mozilla首席执行官米切尔·贝克(Mitchell Baker)称这是一场"失败"的赌注,到2017年底,Mozilla又将默认浏览器改回了谷歌。
海警告说,抛开先例和证据不谈,要确定经历重组后此案真正赢家和输家将需要数月时间。谷歌全球事务总裁肯特·沃克(Kent Walker)在给《财富》杂志的一份声明中表示,谷歌将对这一裁决提出上诉,司法部将于9月份举行另一场听证会,讨论补救措施。海认为,在此之前,谷歌"缺乏真正的动机去改变其行为"。
他说:“在相当长一段时间内不会发生任何事情。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
谷歌在周一经历了糟糕的一天。一名联邦法官在二十多年来第一起针对大型科技公司的重大反垄断案件中裁定,谷歌在搜索市场上存在非法垄断。由于其在手机和浏览器上的广泛存在,这家科技公司能够在几乎不造成任何后果的情况下提高广告费率。根据美国司法部(Department of Justice)的数据,谷歌在2021年支付了260亿美元以成为大众默认的搜索引擎。
法官阿米特·梅塔(Amit Mehta)在长达286页的判决书中表示:“谷歌的分销协议使其垄断了很大一部分通用搜索服务市场,阻止竞争对手参与竞争。”
谷歌的母公司Alphabet拥有2万亿美元的资产,是科技界一股不可忽视的力量,此案的结果必将对谷歌及其用户以外的实体产生连锁效应。随着该案尘埃落定,科技和反垄断专家表示,该诉讼可能会给科技行业的实体带来连锁反应——无论好坏如何。以下是他们列出的赢家和输家。
赢家
康奈尔大学(Cornell University)资深法学教授乔治·海(George Hay)认为,虽然美国司法部显然是此案的赢家,但美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)也可能从此案中受益。该委员会目前正卷入与苹果(Apple)等其他大型科技公司的诉讼,并准备对英伟达(Nvidia)、微软和OpenAI进行反垄断调查。美国联邦贸易委员会现在的做法与20世纪90年代和2000年代的快速创新时代有所不同,当时该监管机构花了数年时间打击科技垄断企业的迅速崛起。
他在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“这表明,法院愿意对一家占主导地位的公司采取行动,解释它为何占主导地位,并将部分反垄断责任归因于某种占主导地位的原因。”
不过,尽管司法部获得了有利的裁决,谷歌前政策主管、科技业联盟“进步商会”(Chamber of Progress)创始人亚当·科瓦切维奇(Adam Kovacevich)对《财富》杂志表示,科技公司将继续大获全胜,微软很可能成为本案的最大赢家。
他说:"大型科技公司反垄断诉讼的特点是,大赢家往往是另一家大型科技公司。”
科瓦切维奇表示,这起诉讼的结果是,谷歌可能被禁止参与默认交易竞标,这就为其他搜索引擎提供了可乘之机。他认为,由于微软在业界的实力和影响力(市值高达3万亿美元),确保其搜索引擎必应成为一些主要平台的默认搜索引擎应该不成问题。
微软已经公开表示这是目标之一。2023年,首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)在谷歌反垄断案中作证说,与苹果达成协议取代谷歌作为默认浏览器异常艰难。虽然与谷歌相比,必应缺乏强大的用户群,但纳德拉在证词中承诺,该公司将有能力加大对引擎的投资。
对微软而言,这也是一次象征性的胜利。23年前,微软曾在最后一起重大联邦反垄断案件中败诉。2000年,美国司法部裁定微软对个人电脑制造商的限制违反了反垄断法。相对而言,微软毫发无损:2001年乔治·沃克·布什(George W. Bush)就任总统后,该公司有机会了结这起诉讼。此外,微软也得以避免按照法官最初的要求分拆成两家公司。科瓦切维奇说,尽管在案件的补救阶段躲过了一劫,但这家巨头仍希望保持领先地位,让其他大型科技公司也经历它所经历的一切。
他说:"基本上20年来,微软的立场一直是,'我们不认同政府的做法,但他们就是这么对我们的,所以他们也应该这么对谷歌。’”
微软拒绝了《财富》杂志的置评请求。
初创企业加速器Y Combinator公共政策主管卢瑟·洛(Luther Lowe)认为,由于大型科技公司可能会被削弱,即将出台的补救措施可能会让以前无法与谷歌的庞大资源竞争的科技初创公司受益。
他在X上写道:“这一裁决可能会极大地重塑竞争格局,通过削弱谷歌的垄断能力,并在搜索和数字广告领域创造更开放的竞争环境,使‘小型科技公司’受益。”
科瓦切维奇并不这么认为。虽然像DuckDuckGo这样的小型搜索引擎网站可能面临的竞争较少,但根据该案的补救措施,要想提高市场份额还很难。由于这些规模较小的科技公司缺乏微软和谷歌的资金支持,它们的产品根本没有那么强大,用户友好性也乏善可陈。
科瓦切维奇说:“但你如何迫使消费者选择某个较差的搜索引擎呢?”
DuckDuckGo在一份声明中告诉《财富》杂志,它确实提供了一个有竞争力的搜索引擎替代品,并对美国司法部在反垄断案中的裁决表示赞赏。
该公司表示:"我们已经走过了一个关键的里程碑,但仍需要书写许多历史,谷歌将尽其所能阻碍进步,因此我们希望看到强有力的补救措施审判,能够真正深入挖掘所有细节,提出一系列切实有效的补救措施,并建立监督机构进行管理。”
输家
谷歌诉讼裁决可能会对三星(Samsung)和苹果产生重大影响,原因是这两家公司为将谷歌作为默认搜索引擎支付了巨额费用。苹果仅在2022年就支付了200亿美元,将谷歌作为Safari的默认搜索栏。梅塔在听证会上辩称,这些协议不利于竞争,占搜索市场94.9%的份额。在做出裁决后,这些协议的前景尚不明朗。
科瓦切维奇说,虽然两家科技公司,尤其是苹果可能会受到反垄断案结果的最直接影响,但最大的输家可能是Mozilla。当用户在Mozilla的火狐浏览器中输入问题进行搜索查询时,它会将其转到谷歌。根据Mozilla 2021-2022年的财务报表,Mozilla与谷歌的交易利润丰厚,占其5.93亿美元收入中的5.1亿美元。据科瓦切维奇称,Mozilla严重依赖谷歌参与默认交易竞标。如果谷歌无法再参与默认交易,那么微软等替代者就不再愿意为使用必应的平台支付那么高的费用。这可能会影响Mozilla对谷歌的财务依赖,原因是谷歌的竞标减少,Mozilla的收入也会减少。
科瓦切维奇说:"Mozilla从谷歌的竞标中获益,因此我认为这几乎肯定会消失。”
Mozilla表示正在密切关注此案,以评估其对公司的影响。
Mozilla发言人周一在一份声明中告诉《财富》杂志:"Mozilla一直倡导网络竞争和选择,尤其是在搜索领域。火狐浏览器将继续提供一系列搜索选项,并将继续致力于满足用户的偏好,同时促进市场竞争。"
随着默认搜索引擎可能发生变化的传言,对谷歌搜索栏非常满意的用户也可能会感到不便。更严重的后果可能是,人们会对其他平台感到失望,从而彻底离开这些平台。
用户反叛已有先例。2014年,作为一项价值3.75亿美元的五年协议的一部分,Mozilla将其火狐浏览器的默认搜索工具从谷歌换成了雅虎。然而,与其竞争对手相比,雅虎的体验质量相形见绌,用户直接放弃使用该浏览器。Mozilla首席执行官米切尔·贝克(Mitchell Baker)称这是一场"失败"的赌注,到2017年底,Mozilla又将默认浏览器改回了谷歌。
海警告说,抛开先例和证据不谈,要确定经历重组后此案真正赢家和输家将需要数月时间。谷歌全球事务总裁肯特·沃克(Kent Walker)在给《财富》杂志的一份声明中表示,谷歌将对这一裁决提出上诉,司法部将于9月份举行另一场听证会,讨论补救措施。海认为,在此之前,谷歌"缺乏真正的动机去改变其行为"。
他说:“在相当长一段时间内不会发生任何事情。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Google had a bad day on Monday. A federal judge ruled in the first major antitrust case against big tech in over two decades that Google has an illegal monopoly on the search market. As a result of its pervasive presence on phones and browsers, the tech company was able to hike advertisement rates with few consequences. According to the Department of Justice, Google paid $26 billion in 2021 to be the default search engine for the masses.
“Google’s distribution agreements foreclose a substantial portion of the general search services market and impair rivals’ opportunities to compete,” judge Amit Mehta said in the case’s 286-page ruling.
With Google’s $2 trillion parent company Alphabet a force to be reckoned with in the tech world, the outcome of the case is bound to cascade beyond Google and its users. As the dust settled on the case, tech and antitrust experts said the lawsuit could have plenty of ripples on entities in the tech industry—for better or for worse. Here are the winners and losers they identified.
The winners
While the DOJ is the obvious victor in the case’s ruling, the Federal Trade Commission—which is currently embroiled in lawsuits with other big tech companies like Apple, and readying antitrust probes into Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI—could also benefit from the case, according to George Hay, a senior law professor at Cornell University. The FTC’s approach now is a departure from the era of the 1990s and 2000s during a period of rapid innovation, when the regulatory body took years to crack down on the meteoric rise of tech monopolies.
“It suggests that the court is willing to take on a dominant firm and explain why it’s so dominant and attribute some antitrust liability to some reason for dominance,” he told Fortune.
But despite the Justice Department getting a favorable ruling, Adam Kovacevich, former Google policy director and founder of the tech coalition Chamber of Progress, told Fortune that tech will continue to win big, likely crowning Microsoft as the case’s biggest winner.
“The thing about big tech antitrust crusades is that the big winner, many times, is another big tech company,” he said.
As a result of the suit, Google could be prohibited from bidding in default deals, Kovacevich said, leaving the door open for other search engines to take advantage. Because of Microsoft’s power and influence in the industry—to the tune of a $3 trillion market capitalization—it should have no problem securing its search engine Bing as the default for some major platforms, Kovacevich argued.
Microsoft has openly expressed this as a goal. CEO Satya Nadella testified in Google’s antitrust case in 2023, saying how hard it was to strike a deal with Apple to replace Google as its default browser. Though Bing lacks a robust usership compared to Google, Nadella promised in his testimony the company would be able to invest more in the engine.
It’s also a symbolic victory for Microsoft, which, 23 years ago, lost the last major federal antitrust case. In 2000, the DOJ ruled Microsoft violated antitrust laws through the restrictions it put on PC manufacturers. But Microsoft came out relatively unscathed: After George W. Bush became president in 2001, the company had the opportunity to settle the suit. Microsoft was also able to avoid splitting into two companies, the original request of the judge. But despite dodging a bullet in the remedy stage of the case, there’s still a desire from the juggernaut to stay on top and give other big tech companies a taste of what it experienced, Kovacevich said.
“Basically for 20 years now, Microsoft’s position has been, ‘We didn’t agree with the government, but this is what they did to us, and so they should do the same thing to Google,’” he said.
Microsoft declined Fortune’s request for comment.
With the potential for big tech to be humbled, Luther Lowe, head of public policy at startup accelerator Y Combinator, believes the impending remedies could benefit tech startups unable to previously compete with Google’s massive resources.
“This ruling could significantly reshape the competitive landscape to benefit ‘little tech’ by reducing Google’s gatekeeping power & creating more open competition in search & digital advertising,” he wrote on X.
Kovacevich isn’t so sure. While smaller search engine sites like DuckDuckGo may have less competition, depending on the remedies from the case, it’s a long shot for it to be able to increase its market share. Because these smaller tech companies lack Microsoft and Google’s funding, their products simply aren’t as strong or user-friendly.
“But how do you force consumers to choose a certain inferior search engine?” Kovacevich said.
DuckDuckGo told Fortune in a statement it does offer a competitive search engine alternative and applauded the DOJ’s decision in the antitrust case.
“We’ve passed a key milestone, but there’s still a lot of history to be written and Google will do anything it can to get in the way of progress which is why we hope to see a robust remedies trial that can really dig into all the details, propose an array of remedies that will actually work, and set up a monitoring body to administer them,” the company said.
The losers
The ruling of Google’s suit could have a big impact on Samsung and Apple, which have shelled out on deals to have Google as their default search engines. Apple paid $20 billion in 2022 alone to have Google as Safari’s default search bar. Mehta argued in the hearing those agreements were detrimental to competition, accounting for 94.9% of the search market. Following the ruling, the future of these deals are unclear.
But while both tech companies—and Apple in particular—may appear to be most directly impacted by the outcome of the antitrust case, the biggest loser is likely Mozilla, Kovacevich said. When users type in search queries into Mozilla’s Firefox browser, it reroutes them to Google. Mozilla’s deal with Google is incredibly lucrative, making up $510 million of its $593 million in revenue, according to its 2021-2022 financial statements. It also heavily relies on Google’s participation in bidding wars over default deals, according to Kovacevich. If Google is no longer able to participate in default deals, there’s less incentive for replacement candidates like Microsoft to want to pay as much for platforms to use Bing. That could impact Mozilla’s financial dependence on Google, with lower bids and less revenue for Mozilla.
“What Mozilla was benefiting from was the bidding war between Google, and so I think that is almost certainly going to go away,” Kovacevich said.
Mozilla said it’s closely reviewing the case to examine its impact on the company.
“Mozilla has always championed competition and choice online, particularly in search,” a spokesperson told Fortune in a statement on Monday. “Firefox continues to offer a range of search options, and we remain committed to serving our users’ preferences while fostering a competitive market.”
With rumblings of potential default search engine changes, there’s also potential for users perfectly happy with Google’s massive search bar presence to be inconvenienced. And the outsized consequence could be that people grow frustrated with other platforms, and leave them altogether.
There’s past precedent for a user revolt. In 2014, Mozilla switched its Firefox default search tool from Google to Yahoo as part of a $375 million five-year-deal. The quality of the experience with Yahoo paled in comparison to its competitor, however, and users simply left the browser. Mozilla CEO Mitchell Baker called it a “failed” bet, and by the end of 2017, Mozilla had reverted its default browser back to Google
Precedent and evidence aside, the shakeout to determine the true winners and losers of the case will take months, Hay warned. Google will appeal the decision, Kent Walker, president of global affairs said in a statement to Fortune, with a separate DOJ hearing to discuss remedies scheduled for September. Until then, Google has “no real incentive to change behavior,” according to Hay.
“Nothing’s going to happen for quite a while,” he said.