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一直以来,经济学家鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼因为悲观的预言而被称为“末日博士”,但在华尔街最近陷入恐慌时,他却一反常态地表达了乐观态度。
上周三,他在接受彭博电视台采访时,对担心经济下滑的投资者嗤之以鼻,并开玩笑说股市和债券市场过去已经预测了十次经济衰退,实际上只发生过三次。
他还表示,去年,市场严重误判了美联储可能进行降息的次数,因为交易者认为美联储会更激进地降息。
鲁比尼表示:“市场对经济状况和美联储的动作经常判断错误。确实有一些重要的证据表明经济有所放缓,但我并不认为有数据表明美国经济短期内会硬着陆。事实上,反而有一些预示着经济强劲的因素。”
等等,发生了什么?
鲁比尼因为对经济和房地产市场泡沫的警告而声名鹊起。他的警告最初遭到人们的嘲讽,但后来发生的全球金融危机证明了他是正确的。
在那之后,他经常就其他多次危机发出预警,在2022年,他警告美国会发生滞涨性债务危机。2023年,他继续发出警告,称面临经济危险的“百慕大三角”和“最严重的债务危机”,美国经济将发生“严重衰退”。
去年,经过美联储进行四十年来最激进的连续加息之后,华尔街的普遍共识是,美国将陷入经济衰退。
但到去年9月,由于美国经济继续稳步增长,并没有严重下滑,因此他的立场有所软化,称美国可能发生短暂或程度较轻的经济衰退。
本月早些时候发布的美国制造业和就业数据表现出急剧恶化的迹象,引发全球股市暴跌,也提供了证据证明华尔街少数看空市场的投资者可能是正确的。
后续的每周失业救济申请数据低于预期,缓解了市场上的紧张情绪,并帮助股市收复了大部分失地。
与此同时,华尔街的其他人也强调一些数据表明了美国经济的潜在实力。阿波罗(Apollo)首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克在上周六的一份报告中表示,亚特兰大联储(Atlanta Fed)的GDP追踪器显示,第三季度美国GDP增幅为2.9%。
斯洛克补充道:“关键是,目前没有迹象表明美国经济衰退,美国经济表现良好,餐厅预订、航空旅行、酒店预订、信用卡数据、银行贷款、百老汇演出上座率、票房收入等每日和每周数据稳步增长,每周的破产申请数据则持续下降。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
一直以来,经济学家鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼因为悲观的预言而被称为“末日博士”,但在华尔街最近陷入恐慌时,他却一反常态地表达了乐观态度。
上周三,他在接受彭博电视台采访时,对担心经济下滑的投资者嗤之以鼻,并开玩笑说股市和债券市场过去已经预测了十次经济衰退,实际上只发生过三次。
他还表示,去年,市场严重误判了美联储可能进行降息的次数,因为交易者认为美联储会更激进地降息。
鲁比尼表示:“市场对经济状况和美联储的动作经常判断错误。确实有一些重要的证据表明经济有所放缓,但我并不认为有数据表明美国经济短期内会硬着陆。事实上,反而有一些预示着经济强劲的因素。”
等等,发生了什么?
鲁比尼因为对经济和房地产市场泡沫的警告而声名鹊起。他的警告最初遭到人们的嘲讽,但后来发生的全球金融危机证明了他是正确的。
在那之后,他经常就其他多次危机发出预警,在2022年,他警告美国会发生滞涨性债务危机。2023年,他继续发出警告,称面临经济危险的“百慕大三角”和“最严重的债务危机”,美国经济将发生“严重衰退”。
去年,经过美联储进行四十年来最激进的连续加息之后,华尔街的普遍共识是,美国将陷入经济衰退。
但到去年9月,由于美国经济继续稳步增长,并没有严重下滑,因此他的立场有所软化,称美国可能发生短暂或程度较轻的经济衰退。
本月早些时候发布的美国制造业和就业数据表现出急剧恶化的迹象,引发全球股市暴跌,也提供了证据证明华尔街少数看空市场的投资者可能是正确的。
后续的每周失业救济申请数据低于预期,缓解了市场上的紧张情绪,并帮助股市收复了大部分失地。
与此同时,华尔街的其他人也强调一些数据表明了美国经济的潜在实力。阿波罗(Apollo)首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克在上周六的一份报告中表示,亚特兰大联储(Atlanta Fed)的GDP追踪器显示,第三季度美国GDP增幅为2.9%。
斯洛克补充道:“关键是,目前没有迹象表明美国经济衰退,美国经济表现良好,餐厅预订、航空旅行、酒店预订、信用卡数据、银行贷款、百老汇演出上座率、票房收入等每日和每周数据稳步增长,每周的破产申请数据则持续下降。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Economist Nouriel Roubini has been such a doomsayer for so long that he’s earned the moniker “Dr. Doom,” but he sounded uncharacteristically bullish amid Wall Street’s recent panic.
During an interview on Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, he dismissed investors’ fears that a downturn is coming and quipped that the stock and bond markets have predicted 10 out of the last three recessions.
He added that markets have also badly misjudged over the last year how many Fed rate cuts are on the way, as traders have seen much more aggressive easing.
“The markets are often wrong about what’s going on with the economy and what the Fed is going to be doing,” Roubini said. “There is some significant evidence of some slowdown of the economy, but I don’t think the data suggest that we’re going to have a hard landing anytime soon. If anything, actually, there’s some elements of strength in the economy.”
Wait, what?
He rose to prominence when his warnings about the economy and the housing bubble were initially laughed off—only to be proven right when the Great Financial Crisis hit.
Since then, he has regularly flagged numerous other catastrophes, and in late 2022 warned of a stagflationary debt crisis. He kept ringing the alarm into 2023, saying a “severe recession” was likely amid a “Bermuda Triangle” of economic dangers and the “mother of all debt crises.”
To be sure, the consensus on Wall Street last year was that the U.S. would tip into a recession after the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive string of rate hikes in four decades.
But by last September, as the economy continued to chug along without hitting the skids, he softened his tone, saying a short or shallow recession was possible.
Then U.S. manufacturing and payroll data earlier this month showed precipitous deterioration, triggering a massive stock selloff in global markets and providing evidence that the few remaining bears on Wall Street may be right.
Subsequent weekly jobless claims data came in lower than expected, calming nerves and helping the stock market recoup much of its losses.
Meanwhile, others on Wall Street have highlighted data that indicates underlying strength in the economy. Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk said in a note on Saturday that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker points to third-quarter growth of 2.9%.
“The bottom line is that there are still no signs of a US recession, and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in daily and weekly data for restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data, bank lending, Broadway show attendance, box office grosses, and weekly data for bankruptcy filings trending lower,” he added.