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从2024年第一季度开始,沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)大幅减持了苹果公司(Apple)股票(苹果公司持股占投资组合的极大比例),成为近期备受瞩目的知名投资者抛售事件之一。在过去的两个季度里,这位“奥马哈先知”旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)已经抛售了大约5.1亿股的苹果股票,减持幅度约为56%。这次抛售的规模和突然性引起了人们的猜测,即巴菲特对苹果公司股票的乐观情绪在过去七年的大幅上涨之后已经消退(巴菲特精准把握并近乎完美地驾驭这轮涨势)。
值得注意的是,苹果仍是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的最大持股,占该集团投资组合的41%。在5月份的年会上,巴菲特对苹果的赞赏之情似乎并未消减。他宣称,他长期持有的两项重要投资,即可口可乐(Coca-Cola)和美国运通(American Express)都是“出色”的企业,但他称赞苹果是“更为卓越的一家”。
巴菲特并未阐明他为何大幅减持苹果股份,我们也不清楚他今后是否会继续持有这家全球最具价值企业的巨额股份。但显而易见的是,总体而言,在当前高价的市场环境中,他采取了更为保守的立场。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在2024年上半年出售了900亿美元的股票,其中出售苹果股票所得占了绝大部分收益。
这次减持使伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持有的现金从第一季度末的1890亿美元的记录增加至2780亿美元。正如其 10-Q季度报表中披露的那样,该公司在7月份出售了约40亿美元的美国银行(Bank of America)股票,进一步扩充了资金储备。近年来,美国银行是其第二大持股,与苹果一样,这是巴菲特低价买入且被证明获利极为丰厚的投资。巴菲特现在积累了大量额外现金,用于投资那些看起来像多年前的苹果或美国银行那样诱人的低价股。
在“高价抛售”的案例中,很难有能超越巴菲特出售苹果股票这一操作的。通过研究这家库比蒂诺巨头(苹果公司所在地)的利润和估值数据轨迹,显然可见,当巴菲特买入这些股票时,它们堪称“便宜股”(市盈率为16),而当他开始大规模获利套现之时,其股价已攀升至高位(市盈率为32),存在风险。苹果的股价已经达到了令人眩晕的高峰,以至于当前的股东,或者现在买入的个人和基金,在未来数年获得两位数回报的机会微乎其微。而且目前超高的估值意味着,与比如疫情爆发前相比,如今出现大幅回调的可能性要大得多,当时苹果股价仅为当前的三分之一。
不过有趣的是,巴菲特错过了苹果股票的“最高点”。在第二季度结束时,苹果股价为211美元,这也是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司抛售期的收盘价,随后在7月16日上涨12%,达到创纪录的235美元。此后,苹果公司就陷入了搅动“美股七巨头”的漩涡,截至8月8日,股价又回到了本季度开始时的211美元。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司三天前抛售的消息是苹果公司股价下跌的主要原因。
但这家美国的领军企业并非因业绩欠佳而受损,而是受累于市场过热的预期和过度的热情。巴菲特在2016年就发现,当时对苹果的前景预期过于悲观,因而做出了其职业生涯中的一次重大押注。如果苹果公司的粉丝们对该公司的期望过高,那么收获惊人的收益,并减轻损失无疑是明智之举。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
从2024年第一季度开始,沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)大幅减持了苹果公司(Apple)股票(苹果公司持股占投资组合的极大比例),成为近期备受瞩目的知名投资者抛售事件之一。在过去的两个季度里,这位“奥马哈先知”旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)已经抛售了大约5.1亿股的苹果股票,减持幅度约为56%。这次抛售的规模和突然性引起了人们的猜测,即巴菲特对苹果公司股票的乐观情绪在过去七年的大幅上涨之后已经消退(巴菲特精准把握并近乎完美地驾驭这轮涨势)。
值得注意的是,苹果仍是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的最大持股,占该集团投资组合的41%。在5月份的年会上,巴菲特对苹果的赞赏之情似乎并未消减。他宣称,他长期持有的两项重要投资,即可口可乐(Coca-Cola)和美国运通(American Express)都是“出色”的企业,但他称赞苹果是“更为卓越的一家”。
巴菲特并未阐明他为何大幅减持苹果股份,我们也不清楚他今后是否会继续持有这家全球最具价值企业的巨额股份。但显而易见的是,总体而言,在当前高价的市场环境中,他采取了更为保守的立场。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在2024年上半年出售了900亿美元的股票,其中出售苹果股票所得占了绝大部分收益。
这次减持使伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持有的现金从第一季度末的1890亿美元的记录增加至2780亿美元。正如其 10-Q季度报表中披露的那样,该公司在7月份出售了约40亿美元的美国银行(Bank of America)股票,进一步扩充了资金储备。近年来,美国银行是其第二大持股,与苹果一样,这是巴菲特低价买入且被证明获利极为丰厚的投资。巴菲特现在积累了大量额外现金,用于投资那些看起来像多年前的苹果或美国银行那样诱人的低价股。
在“高价抛售”的案例中,很难有能超越巴菲特出售苹果股票这一操作的。通过研究这家库比蒂诺巨头(苹果公司所在地)的利润和估值数据轨迹,显然可见,当巴菲特买入这些股票时,它们堪称“便宜股”(市盈率为16),而当他开始大规模获利套现之时,其股价已攀升至高位(市盈率为32),存在风险。苹果的股价已经达到了令人眩晕的高峰,以至于当前的股东,或者现在买入的个人和基金,在未来数年获得两位数回报的机会微乎其微。而且目前超高的估值意味着,与比如疫情爆发前相比,如今出现大幅回调的可能性要大得多,当时苹果股价仅为当前的三分之一。
不过有趣的是,巴菲特错过了苹果股票的“最高点”。在第二季度结束时,苹果股价为211美元,这也是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司抛售期的收盘价,随后在7月16日上涨12%,达到创纪录的235美元。此后,苹果公司就陷入了搅动“美股七巨头”的漩涡,截至8月8日,股价又回到了本季度开始时的211美元。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司三天前抛售的消息是苹果公司股价下跌的主要原因。
但这家美国的领军企业并非因业绩欠佳而受损,而是受累于市场过热的预期和过度的热情。巴菲特在2016年就发现,当时对苹果的前景预期过于悲观,因而做出了其职业生涯中的一次重大押注。如果苹果公司的粉丝们对该公司的期望过高,那么收获惊人的收益,并减轻损失无疑是明智之举。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Starting in Q1 of 2024, Warren Buffett epically downsized his immense holdings of Apple stock in one of the best-publicized selloffs by any famous investor in recent memory. In the past two quarters, the Oracle of Omaha’s Berkshire Hathaway has sold roughly 510 million of the iPhone-maker’s shares, lightening its holdings by around 56%. The size and suddenness of the exit stirred speculation that Buffett’s optimism for Apple’s stock had faded following the fantastic run over the past seven years—a surge that Buffett timed and rode to near-perfection.
It’s important to note that Apple remains Berkshire’s biggest equity holding, comprising 41% of the conglomerate’s portfolio. At the annual meeting in May, Buffett’s admiration for Apple appeared undimmed. He declared that two of his long-time prized investments, Coca-Cola and American Express, were “wonderful” businesses, but that lauded Apple as “an even better one.”
Buffett isn’t saying why he shed such a large portion of his Apple stake, and we simply don’t we don’t know whether, going forward, he’ll maintain a giant position in what’s still the world’s most valuable enterprise. What’s clear is that overall, he’s taking a far more defensive position in a pricey market. Berkshire sold $90 billion in stocks in the first half of 2024, the Apple dump accounting for the vast bulk of the proceeds.
That downshift raised Berkshire’s cash holdings from the previous record of $189 billion at the close of Q1, to $278 billion. As disclosed in its 10Q, Berkshire further swelled its war chest in July by selling around $4 billion in shares of Bank of America, in recent years its second largest holding, and a stock that like Apple, Buffett bought on the cheap that’s proven a fabulously profitable bet. Buffett’s now amassed new loads of extra cash for channeling into beaten-down choices that look as enticing as Apple or Bank of America did years ago.
It’s hard to find a better case of “selling high” than Buffett’s Apple gambit. Examining the trajectory of colossus of Cupertino’s profit and valuation numbers, it’s clear that the shares have run from a screaming bargain (PE of 16) when Buffett bought them to dangerously expensive (PE of 32) by the time he began taking profits in a big way. Apple’s stock price has reached such a dizzying summit that the current shareholders, or folks and funds who buy now, stand little chance of reaping double-digit returns in the years ahead. And the currently super-elevated valuation means that a major correction is far more likely now than, say, just before the pandemic’s outbreak, when Apple fetched one-third today’s price.
However it’s interesting that Buffett missed the “top tick” on Apple shares. They ended Q2 at $211—the close of Berkshire’s selling period—before ramping 12% to a record $235 on July 16. Since then, Apple’s been caught in the maelstrom that’s roiling the Magnificent Seven, a battering that as of August 8, sent shares back to $211 where it started the quarter. News of the Berkshire unloading three days earlier was a big contributor to Apple’s fall.
But American champion’s the victim not of poor performance, but overheated expectations and excessive enthusiasm from the markets. Buffett saw in 2016 that the outlook on Apple was far too dour, and made one of the great wagers of his career. It made eminent sense to harvest much of those fabulous gains, and soften the hit if as is likely, Apple’s fans are expecting far, far too much.