![](https://images1.caifuzhongwen.com/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20240815/080027dbedf82827c24609.jpg)
高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示,随着支持第三方候选人的选民纷纷开始支持哈里斯,哈里斯在全国民调中已经领先唐纳德·特朗普,而且民主党获胜的概率提高。
上个月美国现任总统拜登放弃竞选连任之后,哈里斯成为民主党的假定提名候选人。迄今为止,她在全国民调中的支持率已经领先特朗普约三个百分点。高盛分析师表示,她还缩小了在摇摆州的差距,包括有19张选举人团选票的宾夕法尼亚州,特朗普在该州的支持率仅领先哈里斯0.2个百分点。副总统哈里斯需要至少270张选举人团选票才能赢得大选。
投资银行高盛称,哈里斯在短短一个月时间内掀起的势头,提高了民主党入主白宫和国会的概率,而直到最近这似乎都是不可能完成的任务。分析师们写道,预测市场依旧押注哈里斯将入主白宫,民主党将接管众议院,而共和党将赢得参议院。
![](https://images1.caifuzhongwen.com/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20240815/080027dbedf82827c23507.jpg)
哈里斯在民调中占有领先优势,而且还有可能在下周的民主党全国大会之后再将领先优势扩大2个百分点。与此同时,特别是自从拜登总统退选之后,第三方候选人的支持率大幅下滑。
小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪、吉尔·斯泰因和康奈尔·韦斯特等第三方候选人的选民支持率,从拜登放弃竞选连任前的超过10%下降到6%。
分析师写道:“尽管今年早些时候,第三方候选人从拜登那里抢走的选民略多一些,但前总统特朗普的阵营似乎至少有同样多的选民转为支持第三方候选人。”
在哈里斯宣布参与竞选之后,未做决定的选民比例也开始快速下降,目前与一个月前相比下降了一半。高盛认为,未做决定的选民人数可能已经锁定。
![](https://images1.caifuzhongwen.com/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20240815/080027dbedf82827c23d08.jpg)
更多选民希望民主党赢得国会大选,而不是共和党。
分析师认为,虽然哈里斯的民调结果有所好转,但最近的经济动荡可能降低她在11月大选中获胜的可能性。上周,由于日元套利交易解体,导致交易商进行了大幅操作,所有主要指数都收盘下跌。随着失业率连续三个月上升到4.3%,不及预期的就业数据也引起了担忧。
《金融时报》和密歇根大学罗斯商学院(University of Michigan Ross School of Business)最近的民意调查显示,尽管最近发生了动荡,但42%的选民认为哈里斯解决经济问题的能力胜过特朗普。
虽然高盛分析师在周一的报告中表示,哈里斯可能延续拜登的经济方案,并增加一些内容,但《金融时报》和密歇根大学调查的大部分选民表示,哈里斯应该彻底放弃拜登的政策,或者对他的经济措施“进行大幅修改”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示,随着支持第三方候选人的选民纷纷开始支持哈里斯,哈里斯在全国民调中已经领先唐纳德·特朗普,而且民主党获胜的概率提高。
上个月美国现任总统拜登放弃竞选连任之后,哈里斯成为民主党的假定提名候选人。迄今为止,她在全国民调中的支持率已经领先特朗普约三个百分点。高盛分析师表示,她还缩小了在摇摆州的差距,包括有19张选举人团选票的宾夕法尼亚州,特朗普在该州的支持率仅领先哈里斯0.2个百分点。副总统哈里斯需要至少270张选举人团选票才能赢得大选。
投资银行高盛称,哈里斯在短短一个月时间内掀起的势头,提高了民主党入主白宫和国会的概率,而直到最近这似乎都是不可能完成的任务。分析师们写道,预测市场依旧押注哈里斯将入主白宫,民主党将接管众议院,而共和党将赢得参议院。
哈里斯在民调中占有领先优势,而且还有可能在下周的民主党全国大会之后再将领先优势扩大2个百分点。与此同时,特别是自从拜登总统退选之后,第三方候选人的支持率大幅下滑。
小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪、吉尔·斯泰因和康奈尔·韦斯特等第三方候选人的选民支持率,从拜登放弃竞选连任前的超过10%下降到6%。
分析师写道:“尽管今年早些时候,第三方候选人从拜登那里抢走的选民略多一些,但前总统特朗普的阵营似乎至少有同样多的选民转为支持第三方候选人。”
在哈里斯宣布参与竞选之后,未做决定的选民比例也开始快速下降,目前与一个月前相比下降了一半。高盛认为,未做决定的选民人数可能已经锁定。
更多选民希望民主党赢得国会大选,而不是共和党。
分析师认为,虽然哈里斯的民调结果有所好转,但最近的经济动荡可能降低她在11月大选中获胜的可能性。上周,由于日元套利交易解体,导致交易商进行了大幅操作,所有主要指数都收盘下跌。随着失业率连续三个月上升到4.3%,不及预期的就业数据也引起了担忧。
《金融时报》和密歇根大学罗斯商学院(University of Michigan Ross School of Business)最近的民意调查显示,尽管最近发生了动荡,但42%的选民认为哈里斯解决经济问题的能力胜过特朗普。
虽然高盛分析师在周一的报告中表示,哈里斯可能延续拜登的经济方案,并增加一些内容,但《金融时报》和密歇根大学调查的大部分选民表示,哈里斯应该彻底放弃拜登的政策,或者对他的经济措施“进行大幅修改”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in national polls as voters turn away from third parties and the odds of a blue wave increases, according to Goldman Sachs.
The vice president is up by about three percentage points nationally since she became the presumed Democratic nominee after President Biden ended his reelection bid last month. Her margins have also improved in key swing states, including Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, where Trump has just a 0.2 percentage point lead over Harris, according to the Goldman analysts. The vice president needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the election.
The momentum built up by Harris in just a month has increased the odds of a blue sweep of the White House and Congress, something that looked improbable until recently, according to the investment bank. Yet, prediction markets are still betting narrowly that Harris will win the White House, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans taking the Senate, the analysts wrote.
Harris’s boost in the polls, which could be lifted by another two percentage points following the Democratic National Convention next week, comes as third-party support plummets, especially since President Biden dropped out of the race.
Voter support for third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, fell to 6% from more than 10% before Biden ended his reelection bid.
“While third-party candidates had been drawing slightly more from Biden earlier in the year, what is left of third-party support seems to be coming at least as much from former President Trump,” the analysts wrote.
The percentage of undecided voters also began declining soon after Harris’s entry into the race, and is now half of what it was a month ago. Those undecided voter numbers are likely locked in, according to the investment bank.
Slightly more voters prefer Democrats be elected to Congress than Republicans.
Although Harris’s polling has improved, recent economic instability could hurt her chances of being elected in November, according to the analysts. Last week, all major indexes closed down for the week after the unraveling of the yen carry trade led to big moves by traders. Weaker-than-expected jobs numbers also yielded concern as the unemployment rate rose for the third straight month to 4.3%.
Despite the recent turmoil, 42% of voters think Harris would be better than Trump at handling the economy, according to a recent poll by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.
While the Goldman analysts said in the Monday note that a Harris economic plan would likely mirror Biden’s proposals with a few additions, a majority of voters surveyed by the FT and University of Michigan poll said Harris should break completely from Biden or “make major changes” to his economic proposals.