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由于美国公布的通胀数据符合预期,市场基本维持了美联储将于9月开始降息的判断,股市随之出现上涨。
标普500指数连续第五天上涨,创下一个多月来的最长连涨纪录。其大部分权重股均实现上涨,金融股和能源股涨幅居前。国债小幅波动。美元在四个月低点附近徘徊。
消费者物价指数(CPI)数据巩固了通胀回落趋势,并为上周崩溃后仍在挣扎的市场带来了些许宽慰。加之就业市场疲软,市场普遍预计美联储将于下月开始降息,而降息幅度可能将取决于即将公布的数据。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)旗下E*Trade的克里斯·拉金称:“虽然可能不及昨天公布的PPI数据那么亮眼,但由于今天的CPI数据符合预期,所以市场并未受到太大影响。现在的首要问题是美联储下个月是会降息25个基点还是50个基点。如果未来五周的大部分数据都指向经济放缓,那么美联储可能会更采取更为激进的降息举措。”
Evercore的克里希纳·古哈称,7月份的CPI数据虽然不够完美,但因为其与美联储青睐的温和通胀预期一致,已足以令人感到满意。此外,由于自7月份就业报告发布以来,就业下行风险已成为美联储的首要考量要素,央行已放弃对数据点的依赖,而是以更广泛的经济前景和风险平衡作为(决策的)着眼点。
古哈指出:“现在就业数据才是美联储最关心的事,而不是通胀数据,而即将公布的劳动力数据将决定美联储会以何种力度推进降息。”
标普500指数在5455点附近徘徊。权重股涨跌不一,英伟达(Nvidia)上涨,Alphabet下跌。华尔街的“恐惧指数”——VIX,持续走低,目前已跌破17。在此之前,该指数上周曾史无前例地飙升至65以上。
美国10年期国债收益率下降了2个基点至3.82%。
“市场下跌带来的压力已渐行渐远”,Nationwide公司的马克·哈克特称,“随着对宏观经济的担忧逐渐褪去,股票回购开始回潮,市场势头趋于稳定,股市获得了更好的发展环境。”
以奥斯卡·穆诺兹和根纳季·戈德堡为首,道明证券(TD Securities)的策略师们认为,最新的消费者物价报告相当于正式确认了美联储将于9月份开始降息。
“对美联储而言,最新发布的CPI报告无疑是个好消息”,他们表示,“由于美国经济实际上同时面临着两方面的风险,其中就业市场下行的风险可能还要更大一些,我们认为,要想判断美联储的决策动向,需要重点关注其首次降息的幅度。”
在独立顾问联盟(Independent Advisor Alliance)的克里斯·扎卡雷利看来,7月的CPI数据是最典型的“没有消息,就是好消息”,因为市场一直处于紧张状态,美联储正在寻求降息,而这份报告中并未出现任何可能妨碍其降息的内容。
Premier Miton Investors的尼尔·伯瑞尔称:“近期的波动主要由宏观层面消息推动,再次上演了‘沉闷的消息就是好消息’的戏码。也为美联储在下一次会议前权衡经济状况提供了喘息空间。”
信安资产管理公司(Principal Asset Management)的西玛·沙阿表示,最新发布的CPI数据为美联储扫除了可能阻碍其于9月份启动降息的通胀障碍。然而,这一数字也表明,降息50基点的紧迫性比较有限。
瑞士隆奥投资管理公司(Lombard Odier Investment Managers)的弗洛里安·伊尔波认为:“除低迷的就业数据或许可以为降息提供支撑外,该报告几乎未提供什么有用的新信息来帮助美联储指导决策。”
“这份温和的CPI报告或许可以帮助美联储官员增强一些信心,相信通胀正在得到有效控制”,彭博经济(Bloomberg Economics)的安娜·王和斯图尔特·保罗称, “尽管7月的核心PCE通胀数据不会像CPI数据一样好看,但由于失业率上升,我们预计美联储还是会在9月份启动降息。”
在美联储今年还将召开三次议息会议的情况下,交易者仍认为2024年的降息幅度将略高于1个百分点。从最近的交易结果可以看出,市场对下个月美联储将会降息25个基点还是50个基点出现了分歧。
瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)的布莱恩·罗斯称:“由于通胀数据已经回落到理想区间,美联储有了从9月份开始降息的空间,但他们目前并无理由采取激进的降息策略。是否要降息50个基点,而不是通常的25个基点,可能要看8月份的就业数据。”
罗斯还指出,周四公布的零售销售数据同样十分关键,因为对他的软着陆基本假设而言,消费者支出回落是最主要的下行风险。
加拿大皇家银行全球资产管理公司(RBC Global Asset Management)蓝湾投资组合经理尼尔·孙说:“美国经济在持续降温,劳动力市场也表现出一定程度的放缓。不过,短期内我们并不太过担心美国经济可能存在衰退风险。如果通胀持续降温、美国经济持续放缓的势头不变,我们也已做好准备,将会充分利用市场波动带来的任何机会”。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
由于美国公布的通胀数据符合预期,市场基本维持了美联储将于9月开始降息的判断,股市随之出现上涨。
标普500指数连续第五天上涨,创下一个多月来的最长连涨纪录。其大部分权重股均实现上涨,金融股和能源股涨幅居前。国债小幅波动。美元在四个月低点附近徘徊。
消费者物价指数(CPI)数据巩固了通胀回落趋势,并为上周崩溃后仍在挣扎的市场带来了些许宽慰。加之就业市场疲软,市场普遍预计美联储将于下月开始降息,而降息幅度可能将取决于即将公布的数据。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)旗下E*Trade的克里斯·拉金称:“虽然可能不及昨天公布的PPI数据那么亮眼,但由于今天的CPI数据符合预期,所以市场并未受到太大影响。现在的首要问题是美联储下个月是会降息25个基点还是50个基点。如果未来五周的大部分数据都指向经济放缓,那么美联储可能会更采取更为激进的降息举措。”
Evercore的克里希纳·古哈称,7月份的CPI数据虽然不够完美,但因为其与美联储青睐的温和通胀预期一致,已足以令人感到满意。此外,由于自7月份就业报告发布以来,就业下行风险已成为美联储的首要考量要素,央行已放弃对数据点的依赖,而是以更广泛的经济前景和风险平衡作为(决策的)着眼点。
古哈指出:“现在就业数据才是美联储最关心的事,而不是通胀数据,而即将公布的劳动力数据将决定美联储会以何种力度推进降息。”
标普500指数在5455点附近徘徊。权重股涨跌不一,英伟达(Nvidia)上涨,Alphabet下跌。华尔街的“恐惧指数”——VIX,持续走低,目前已跌破17。在此之前,该指数上周曾史无前例地飙升至65以上。
美国10年期国债收益率下降了2个基点至3.82%。
“市场下跌带来的压力已渐行渐远”,Nationwide公司的马克·哈克特称,“随着对宏观经济的担忧逐渐褪去,股票回购开始回潮,市场势头趋于稳定,股市获得了更好的发展环境。”
以奥斯卡·穆诺兹和根纳季·戈德堡为首,道明证券(TD Securities)的策略师们认为,最新的消费者物价报告相当于正式确认了美联储将于9月份开始降息。
“对美联储而言,最新发布的CPI报告无疑是个好消息”,他们表示,“由于美国经济实际上同时面临着两方面的风险,其中就业市场下行的风险可能还要更大一些,我们认为,要想判断美联储的决策动向,需要重点关注其首次降息的幅度。”
在独立顾问联盟(Independent Advisor Alliance)的克里斯·扎卡雷利看来,7月的CPI数据是最典型的“没有消息,就是好消息”,因为市场一直处于紧张状态,美联储正在寻求降息,而这份报告中并未出现任何可能妨碍其降息的内容。
Premier Miton Investors的尼尔·伯瑞尔称:“近期的波动主要由宏观层面消息推动,再次上演了‘沉闷的消息就是好消息’的戏码。也为美联储在下一次会议前权衡经济状况提供了喘息空间。”
信安资产管理公司(Principal Asset Management)的西玛·沙阿表示,最新发布的CPI数据为美联储扫除了可能阻碍其于9月份启动降息的通胀障碍。然而,这一数字也表明,降息50基点的紧迫性比较有限。
瑞士隆奥投资管理公司(Lombard Odier Investment Managers)的弗洛里安·伊尔波认为:“除低迷的就业数据或许可以为降息提供支撑外,该报告几乎未提供什么有用的新信息来帮助美联储指导决策。”
“这份温和的CPI报告或许可以帮助美联储官员增强一些信心,相信通胀正在得到有效控制”,彭博经济(Bloomberg Economics)的安娜·王和斯图尔特·保罗称, “尽管7月的核心PCE通胀数据不会像CPI数据一样好看,但由于失业率上升,我们预计美联储还是会在9月份启动降息。”
在美联储今年还将召开三次议息会议的情况下,交易者仍认为2024年的降息幅度将略高于1个百分点。从最近的交易结果可以看出,市场对下个月美联储将会降息25个基点还是50个基点出现了分歧。
瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)的布莱恩·罗斯称:“由于通胀数据已经回落到理想区间,美联储有了从9月份开始降息的空间,但他们目前并无理由采取激进的降息策略。是否要降息50个基点,而不是通常的25个基点,可能要看8月份的就业数据。”
罗斯还指出,周四公布的零售销售数据同样十分关键,因为对他的软着陆基本假设而言,消费者支出回落是最主要的下行风险。
加拿大皇家银行全球资产管理公司(RBC Global Asset Management)蓝湾投资组合经理尼尔·孙说:“美国经济在持续降温,劳动力市场也表现出一定程度的放缓。不过,短期内我们并不太过担心美国经济可能存在衰退风险。如果通胀持续降温、美国经济持续放缓的势头不变,我们也已做好准备,将会充分利用市场波动带来的任何机会”。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
Stocks rose after an in-line U.S. inflation report did little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September.
The S&P 500 headed toward its fifth straight day of gains, the longest winning streak in more than month. Most of its major groups advanced, with financial and energy shares leading the charge. Treasuries saw small moves. The dollar hovered near a four-month low.
The consumer price index reinforced the trend of disinflation and brought a degree of relief to markets still reeling after last week’s meltdown. Combined with a softening job market, the Fed is widely expected to start lowering rates next month, while the size of the cut will likely be determined by incoming data.
“It may not have been as cool as yesterday’s PPI, but today’s as-expected CPI likely will not rock the boat,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Now the primary question is whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points next month. If most of the data over the next five weeks points to a slowing economy, the Fed may cut more aggressively.”
At Evercore, Krishna Guha said the July CPI was not perfect, but it was good enough as it was consistent with a tame read on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. In addition, the central bank has disavowed data-point dependence, and is looking at the wider outlook and balance of risks, with downside risks to employment dominating since the July employment report.
“This is now a labor data-first Fed, not an inflation data-first Fed, and the incoming labor data will determine how aggressively the Fed pulls forward rate cuts,” Guha noted.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,455. Megacaps were mixed, with Nvidia Corp. up and Alphabet Inc. down. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – the VIX – continued to subside, dropping below 17. That’s after an unprecedented spike that took the gauge above 65 last week.
Treasury 10-year yields declined two basis points to 3.82%.
“The stress of the market decline is a fading memory,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “Calming macro fears, the return of share repurchases, and stabilizing momentum provide an improved backdrop for equities.”
The latest consumer price report “checked the box” for the Fed to start cutting rates in September, according to TD Securities’ strategists led by Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg.
“Today’s CPI report is again unambiguously welcome news for the Federal Reserve,” they said. “As risks have become truly two-sided for the US economy, if not slightly tilted toward downward employment outcomes, we expect the Fed’s upcoming decision to come down to the magnitude of the first rate cut.”
To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, the July CPI print is the ultimate “no news, is good news” because the markets have been on edge and the Fed is looking to cut interest rates — and nothing in this report should deter them from doing so.
“Recent volatility has largely been driven by macro news, and this is a case of ‘dull news is good news’,” said Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors. “It also allows the Fed breathing space as they weigh the economy ahead of their next meeting.”
At Principal Asset Management, Seema Shah says the CPI print removes any lingering inflation obstacles that may have been preventing the Fed from starting the rate cutting cycle in September. Yet, the number also suggests limited urgency for a 50 basis-point cut.
“It offers little new information to guide the future decisions of the Fed, aside from potentially supporting a rate cut due to job market concerns,” according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“The soft CPI report will likely give Fed officials modestly more confidence that inflation is on the way down,” said Anna Wong and Stuart Paul at Bloomberg Economics. “Even though July’s core PCE inflation print won’t be as good, we expect the Fed to cut rates in September due to the rising unemployment rate.”
Traders are still pricing in just over 1 percentage point worth of rate reductions in 2024, with three Fed policy meetings remaining this year. In recent sessions, market pricing had shown a split on the outcome of either 25 or 50 basis points worth of rate reductions next month.
“The inflation data has been good enough to allow the Fed to start cutting rates in September, but does not give them a reason to cut aggressively,” said Brian Rose at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The decision whether to cut by 50 basis points instead of the usual 25 bps may come down to the August labor report.”
Rose also notes that Thursday’s retail sales data is another critical release as the main downside risk to his base case scenario of a soft landing is a pullback in consumer spending.
“The US economy is sustainably cooling, and the labor market is exhibiting a bit of slowing,” said Neil Sun, a BlueBay portfolio manager at RBC Global Asset Management. “However, we are not overly concerned over US recession risks in the short-term. We stand ready to thoughtfully capitalize on any pockets of volatility should underlying trends of cooling inflation and sustainably slowing US economy continue.”