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理论上,更低的房屋抵押贷款利率应该改善美国房地产市场的状况。但凯投宏观(Capital Economics)认为,当前和明年的抵押贷款利率,不足以刺激房地产市场复苏。
对潜在经济衰退的担忧和低迷的经济数据,使人们产生了对降息和房贷成本下降的预期。但仅靠更低的房贷利率,并不能提振房地产市场。目前的抵押贷款利率为6.47%,高到业主不愿意将房子挂牌出售,也足以让潜在购房人选择观望。
凯投宏观经济学家托马斯·瑞恩最近在报告中写道:“对于最近抵押贷款利率下降能否振兴房地产市场,我们持怀疑态度。利率依旧高于过去几年的水平,导致业主不愿意换房,与此同时史无前例的可负担性危机,使大多数新购房人选择了继续观望。我们依旧认为,房屋销售复苏将不温不火。”
在疫情期间,房屋抵押贷款利率约为3%,尽管在某些时间点出现过上下波动。低抵押贷款利率带来了房地产市场繁荣。由于远程办公,人们可以按照自己的心意选择居住地点,而且低借款成本让买房变得更容易。随着通胀加剧和美联储加息,抵押贷款利率随之上涨。人们不再买卖房屋,于是房地产市场陷入低迷。去年,美国现房销售降至近30年来的最低点,而且依旧在下降。但抵押贷款利率下降,是由于经济数据趋缓和对经济衰退的担忧;上周,抵押贷款利率下降至一年多来的最低水平。最近抵押贷款利率下降似乎仍不足以让人们重新回到市场。
而且抵押贷款利率不是唯一的问题。疫情期间,房价大幅上涨,但现在房价只是放慢了上涨速度而已。目前的购房成本远高于四年前,因此整体可负担性大幅下降。
这并不意味着抵押贷款利率下降不是好消息。瑞恩写道:“抵押贷款利率下降给房地产市场注入了一些活力。”他表示,去年当抵押贷款利率下降时,购房申请增多。但这段时期非常短暂,因为借款成本再次上涨,于是贷款申请减少。
他表示:“由于抵押贷款利率下降到更低水平,并且已经过去了一段时间,因此这一次买卖双方可能会有更多反应。但根据以往的经验,借款成本必须下降到5%以下,购房活动才会全面复苏。”
瑞恩预测的刺激房地产市场复苏的抵押贷款利率,低于Compass联合创始人兼首席执行官最近所说的低于6%。而且,凯投宏观认为,抵押贷款利率在短期内不可能降至6%以下。该研究公司估计,到今年年底前,抵押贷款利率可能接近6.5%,明年预计将维持在6%左右。无论如何,抵押贷款利率正在接近美国房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)的首席经济学家最近警告的6%。
但瑞恩依旧认为抵押贷款利率下降是“房地产市场的一个转折点”,利率可能不会重新回到7%,而且现房销售状况应该会出现小幅好转。但抵押贷款利率也不会回落到疫情期间的低点,除非整体经济状况严重恶化。
瑞恩写道:“只有严重经济衰退才会使抵押贷款利率下降至疫情期间房地产市场繁荣时期的3%,因为经济衰退将迫使美联储以远超过当前金融市场预期的幅度大幅降息。”
他继续说道:“但这种情况不会支持房屋销售强劲复苏,因为就业市场会严重恶化,会有大批人失业。事实上,根据经济衰退的严重程度,这要么导致更小幅度的房屋销售复苏,要么导致房屋销售进一步下滑。但我们判断经济软着陆是最有可能发生的结果。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
理论上,更低的房屋抵押贷款利率应该改善美国房地产市场的状况。但凯投宏观(Capital Economics)认为,当前和明年的抵押贷款利率,不足以刺激房地产市场复苏。
对潜在经济衰退的担忧和低迷的经济数据,使人们产生了对降息和房贷成本下降的预期。但仅靠更低的房贷利率,并不能提振房地产市场。目前的抵押贷款利率为6.47%,高到业主不愿意将房子挂牌出售,也足以让潜在购房人选择观望。
凯投宏观经济学家托马斯·瑞恩最近在报告中写道:“对于最近抵押贷款利率下降能否振兴房地产市场,我们持怀疑态度。利率依旧高于过去几年的水平,导致业主不愿意换房,与此同时史无前例的可负担性危机,使大多数新购房人选择了继续观望。我们依旧认为,房屋销售复苏将不温不火。”
在疫情期间,房屋抵押贷款利率约为3%,尽管在某些时间点出现过上下波动。低抵押贷款利率带来了房地产市场繁荣。由于远程办公,人们可以按照自己的心意选择居住地点,而且低借款成本让买房变得更容易。随着通胀加剧和美联储加息,抵押贷款利率随之上涨。人们不再买卖房屋,于是房地产市场陷入低迷。去年,美国现房销售降至近30年来的最低点,而且依旧在下降。但抵押贷款利率下降,是由于经济数据趋缓和对经济衰退的担忧;上周,抵押贷款利率下降至一年多来的最低水平。最近抵押贷款利率下降似乎仍不足以让人们重新回到市场。
而且抵押贷款利率不是唯一的问题。疫情期间,房价大幅上涨,但现在房价只是放慢了上涨速度而已。目前的购房成本远高于四年前,因此整体可负担性大幅下降。
这并不意味着抵押贷款利率下降不是好消息。瑞恩写道:“抵押贷款利率下降给房地产市场注入了一些活力。”他表示,去年当抵押贷款利率下降时,购房申请增多。但这段时期非常短暂,因为借款成本再次上涨,于是贷款申请减少。
他表示:“由于抵押贷款利率下降到更低水平,并且已经过去了一段时间,因此这一次买卖双方可能会有更多反应。但根据以往的经验,借款成本必须下降到5%以下,购房活动才会全面复苏。”
瑞恩预测的刺激房地产市场复苏的抵押贷款利率,低于Compass联合创始人兼首席执行官最近所说的低于6%。而且,凯投宏观认为,抵押贷款利率在短期内不可能降至6%以下。该研究公司估计,到今年年底前,抵押贷款利率可能接近6.5%,明年预计将维持在6%左右。无论如何,抵押贷款利率正在接近美国房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)的首席经济学家最近警告的6%。
但瑞恩依旧认为抵押贷款利率下降是“房地产市场的一个转折点”,利率可能不会重新回到7%,而且现房销售状况应该会出现小幅好转。但抵押贷款利率也不会回落到疫情期间的低点,除非整体经济状况严重恶化。
瑞恩写道:“只有严重经济衰退才会使抵押贷款利率下降至疫情期间房地产市场繁荣时期的3%,因为经济衰退将迫使美联储以远超过当前金融市场预期的幅度大幅降息。”
他继续说道:“但这种情况不会支持房屋销售强劲复苏,因为就业市场会严重恶化,会有大批人失业。事实上,根据经济衰退的严重程度,这要么导致更小幅度的房屋销售复苏,要么导致房屋销售进一步下滑。但我们判断经济软着陆是最有可能发生的结果。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Lower mortgage rates should ameliorate our housing situation, in theory. But where mortgage rates are at the moment, and where they’re expected to go in the next year or so, isn’t enough for that to happen, according to Capital Economics.
Anxiety about a potential recession and sluggish economic data are leading to expectations about lowered interest rates and cheaper home loan costs. But lower rates alone won’t resuscitate the housing market. Rates are sitting at 6.47%, high enough that people don’t want to list their homes for sale, and costly enough to keep would-be homebuyers on the sidelines.
“We are skeptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market,” Capital Economics’ economist, Thomas Ryan, recently wrote. “Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new buyers remain sidelined due to historically stretched affordability. We remain confident that the recovery in home sales will be muted.”
Throughout the pandemic, mortgage rates were around 3%, although they fluctuated, moving higher and lower at some points. It fueled a housing boom. People could live anywhere they wanted because of remote work, and cheap money only made it that much easier. But when inflation ran hot, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, mortgage rates followed. People stopped buying and selling homes, and the housing world froze. Last year, existing home sales fell to their lowest point in almost 30 years and are still depressed. But mortgage rates are falling on the back of cooler economic data and some fears of a recession; they fell to their lowest level in more than a year last week. Still, the latest decline in mortgage rates doesn’t seem to be enough to bring everyone back.
And it isn’t simply mortgage rates. Home prices rose substantially throughout the pandemic, and their pace of inflation has only begun to slow. All around affordability is shot because the cost of buying a home today is so much more than it was only four years ago.
That isn’t to say a drop in mortgage rates isn’t welcome—it is. “Lower mortgage rates will breathe some life into the market,” Ryan wrote. Last year when mortgage rates fell, home purchase applications rose, he said. But it was short-lived because borrowing costs rose again and loan applications dipped.
“We may get more of a response from buyers and sellers this time around given that rates have fallen to a lower level, and more time has elapsed,” he said. “Based on past form, however, it seems that borrowing costs would have to fall below 5% to see a full recovery in home buying.”
So Ryan’s magic mortgage rate number is lower than let’s say Compass’ cofounder and chief executive who recently said it was anything below 6%. Not to mention, Capital Economics doesn’t see that happening anytime soon. By the end of the year, the research firm estimates that mortgage rates will be closer to 6.5%, and next year, it expects them to be around 6%. Either way, it seems we’re coming closer to the 6% mortgage rate reality the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist recently warned of.
Still, Ryan called the drop in mortgage rates “a turning point for the housing market,” in that they probably won’t go back to a 7% handle and existing home sales should be slightly better. But mortgage rates aren’t going back to their pandemic-era lows, not unless the entire economy falls hard.
“Only a severe recession could prompt a return to the 3% mortgage rates of the pandemic-era housing frenzy, as the Federal Reserve would be forced to cut interest rates a lot more than what is currently priced into financial markets,” Ryan wrote.
He continued: “Such a scenario, however, would not support a robust recovery in home sales, as it would involve a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions with significant job losses. In fact, depending on the severity of the recession, this would either result in an even shallower recovery or possibly a further fall in sales. Nevertheless, we judge that a soft landing is the most likely outcome for the economy.”