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“贝叶斯号”游艇快速沉没的三种理论

Sydney Lake
2024-08-26

迄今为止已经找到五位遇难者。

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意大利救援队正在从“贝叶斯号”的残骸中搜寻遇难者的遗体。Alberto Pizzoli—AFP/Getty Images

上周早些时候,“贝叶斯号”超级游艇在暴风雨中沉没,英国科技企业家麦克·林奇遇难。周四,意大利当局从残骸中找到了第五具遗体。

这艘游艇长184英尺,悬挂的是英国船旗,在周一早些时候沉没。迄今为止已经找到的五位遇难者的身份分别是Autonomy公司创始人和Darktrace的投资者麦克·林奇、摩根士丹利银行国际(Morgan Stanley Bank International)的董事长乔纳森·布鲁默和妻子朱迪、高伟绅律师事务所(Clifford Chance)的律师克里斯·莫韦洛和妻子内达。林奇18岁的女儿汉娜仍然下落不明。

关于这艘造价3,900万美元的巨大游艇为什么会在短短60秒内沉没,人们分析出各种理论。游艇的制造商表示,船员本应该有时间营救乘客。

理论1:桅杆被风吹倒

第一种理论是,这艘大型游艇上的桅杆过高,当游艇遭遇海上龙卷风时,导致船身倾覆。意大利海洋集团(Italian Sea Group)CEO乔瓦尼·科斯坦蒂诺对《金融时报》表示,这艘船装有“世界第二高的桅杆”,它的“设计可保证绝对稳定”。意大利海洋集团拥有多个船舶品牌,包括游艇制造商Perini Navi。但附近一艘船的船长卡斯滕·伯尔纳认为,沉船的原因可能是强风刮倒了高236英尺的桅杆。即使帆已经收起,桅杆及其索具仍然会提供一个巨大的表面面积,产生风阻。

伯尔纳对路透社表示,“贝叶斯号”“[带着桅杆]在水面上平躺,然后下沉”。作为参考,根据吉尼斯世界纪录显示,帆船桅杆的最高纪录是“米拉美人5”号(Mirabella V),长近247英尺。

理论二:可伸缩龙骨位置错误。

关于“贝叶斯号”沉没的原因,第二种理论是应该被降下的龙骨却被收了回去,导致船变得不稳定。龙骨是一种结构梁,从船头到船尾贯穿船的中部,可以提高船的稳定性,降低船在水中的重心,在船舶前进时更利于操控。船舶制造商Sea Born表示:”如果没有龙骨,船可能在水面上打滑。”

“贝叶斯号”的制造商Perini Navi表示,这艘游艇配有可伸缩龙骨。龙骨可以抬高,以减少船的吃水量,使其更容易进入浅水港湾。如果龙骨被抬高而不是伸长,在遭遇强风时可能破坏船的稳定性,导致船沉没。

理论三:在风浪中,一个重要的舱口盖未关闭

迄今为止,最有说服力的理论可能是,船上可能有人将一个重要的舱口或门半开着,导致船身内迅速进水。事实上,科斯坦蒂诺认为,在观看了沉没的录像回放之后,这是最有说服力的理论;船的后方似乎有一扇铰链门可以折叠成与海平面齐平的甲板。

科斯坦蒂诺对《金融时报》表示,由于“贝叶斯号”明显进水了,本应该有足够的时间,让所有人下船登上救生筏。

他说道:“天哪!船体完好无损。水从被开着的[舱口]进入船身。”他表示:“除此之外,没有其他解释。如果操控得当,这艘船本可以轻松应对这种天气。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

意大利救援队正在从“贝叶斯号”的残骸中搜寻遇难者的遗体。Alberto Pizzoli—AFP/Getty Images

上周早些时候,“贝叶斯号”超级游艇在暴风雨中沉没,英国科技企业家麦克·林奇遇难。周四,意大利当局从残骸中找到了第五具遗体。

这艘游艇长184英尺,悬挂的是英国船旗,在周一早些时候沉没。迄今为止已经找到的五位遇难者的身份分别是Autonomy公司创始人和Darktrace的投资者麦克·林奇、摩根士丹利银行国际(Morgan Stanley Bank International)的董事长乔纳森·布鲁默和妻子朱迪、高伟绅律师事务所(Clifford Chance)的律师克里斯·莫韦洛和妻子内达。林奇18岁的女儿汉娜仍然下落不明。

关于这艘造价3,900万美元的巨大游艇为什么会在短短60秒内沉没,人们分析出各种理论。游艇的制造商表示,船员本应该有时间营救乘客。

理论1:桅杆被风吹倒

第一种理论是,这艘大型游艇上的桅杆过高,当游艇遭遇海上龙卷风时,导致船身倾覆。意大利海洋集团(Italian Sea Group)CEO乔瓦尼·科斯坦蒂诺对《金融时报》表示,这艘船装有“世界第二高的桅杆”,它的“设计可保证绝对稳定”。意大利海洋集团拥有多个船舶品牌,包括游艇制造商Perini Navi。但附近一艘船的船长卡斯滕·伯尔纳认为,沉船的原因可能是强风刮倒了高236英尺的桅杆。即使帆已经收起,桅杆及其索具仍然会提供一个巨大的表面面积,产生风阻。

伯尔纳对路透社表示,“贝叶斯号”“[带着桅杆]在水面上平躺,然后下沉”。作为参考,根据吉尼斯世界纪录显示,帆船桅杆的最高纪录是“米拉美人5”号(Mirabella V),长近247英尺。

理论二:可伸缩龙骨位置错误。

关于“贝叶斯号”沉没的原因,第二种理论是应该被降下的龙骨却被收了回去,导致船变得不稳定。龙骨是一种结构梁,从船头到船尾贯穿船的中部,可以提高船的稳定性,降低船在水中的重心,在船舶前进时更利于操控。船舶制造商Sea Born表示:”如果没有龙骨,船可能在水面上打滑。”

“贝叶斯号”的制造商Perini Navi表示,这艘游艇配有可伸缩龙骨。龙骨可以抬高,以减少船的吃水量,使其更容易进入浅水港湾。如果龙骨被抬高而不是伸长,在遭遇强风时可能破坏船的稳定性,导致船沉没。

理论三:在风浪中,一个重要的舱口盖未关闭

迄今为止,最有说服力的理论可能是,船上可能有人将一个重要的舱口或门半开着,导致船身内迅速进水。事实上,科斯坦蒂诺认为,在观看了沉没的录像回放之后,这是最有说服力的理论;船的后方似乎有一扇铰链门可以折叠成与海平面齐平的甲板。

科斯坦蒂诺对《金融时报》表示,由于“贝叶斯号”明显进水了,本应该有足够的时间,让所有人下船登上救生筏。

他说道:“天哪!船体完好无损。水从被开着的[舱口]进入船身。”他表示:“除此之外,没有其他解释。如果操控得当,这艘船本可以轻松应对这种天气。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Italian rescue services retrieving bodies from the wreck of the Bayesian.

On Thursday, Italian authorities retrieved a fifth body from the Bayesian superyacht that sank in a storm earlier this week, killing British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch.

The 184-foot British-flagged vessel sank early Monday, and the five identified bodies thus far from the incident include Mike Lynch, founder of Autonomy and investor in Darktrace; Morgan Stanley Bank International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, Judy; Chris Morvillo, a Clifford Chance lawyer, and his wife, Neda, were also found. Lynch’s 18-year-old daughter Hannah is still missing.

There are several theories as to why the massive $39 million boat sank in just about 60 seconds. And the maker of the ship says the crew should have had time to rescue passengers.

Theory one: The mast was pushed over by the wind

The first theory is that the mast on the massive vessel was so tall it tipped the boat over when a waterspout—essentially a water tornado—hit the boat. Giovanni Costantino, CEO of the Italian Sea Group, which owns several boat brands including the yacht’s builder, Perini Navi, told the Financial Times the boat was “designed to be absolutely stable” because it had the “world’s second-tallest mast.” But Karsten Borner, the skipper of a nearby boat, suggests the sinking actually could have been caused by high winds hitting the 236-foot mast. Even with sails stowed, the mast and its rigging would have provided a vast surface area for wind resistance.

The Bayesian “went flat [with the mast] on the water, and then went down,” Borner told Reuters. For reference, the tallest mast on a sailing boat on record was the Mirabella V at nearly 247 feet long, according to Guinness World Records.

Theory two: The retractable keel was in the wrong position

The second theory about the cause of the Bayesian sinking is that the keel was retracted when it should have been lowered, making the boat less stable. The keel is a structural beam that runs under the middle of the boat from bow to stern, giving the boat better stability, a lower center of gravity in the water, and more control while moving forward. “Without the keel, a boat might slip or skim on the water,” according to boat manufacturer Sea Born.

The Bayesian had a keel that could be retracted, according to the yacht’s manufacturer, Perini Navi. It could be lifted to reduce the draught of the boat, making it easier to enter shallow harbors. It’s possible that if the keel had been in the raised position rather than extended, that could have compromised the boat’s stability in a strong wind, causing it to sink.

Theory three: A major hatch was left open to the waves

Perhaps the strongest theory so far is the notion that someone onboard may have left a major hatch or door ajar, causing the boat to quickly fill with water. In fact, Costantino thinks this is the strongest theory after watching back footage of the sinking; the rear of the boat appears to have a hinged door that folds down into a sea-level deck.

Since it was obvious the Bayesian was taking on water, there should have been time to get everyone off the boat and into rafts, Costantino told the FT.

“Jesus Christ! The hull is intact. The water came in from [hatchways] left open,” he said. “There is no other possible explanation. If maneuvered properly, the boat would have comfortably handled the weather—comfortably,” he said.

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