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OpenAI最新估值超千亿美元

KALI HAYS
2024-09-03

OpenAI正在进行谈判,计划在新一轮融资中再融资数十亿美元。

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OpenAI CEO兼联合创始人山姆·阿尔特曼。图片来源:JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

从复杂的非营利-营利结构,到CEO被短暂驱逐和回归,OpenAI的发展过程不同寻常。

该初创公司最近的一轮融资就是典型的例子之一。此轮融资对该公司的估值据称达到惊人的1,030亿美元。据《华尔街日报》报道,OpenAI正在进行谈判,计划在新一轮融资中再融资数十亿美元。除了传统投资者(据报道,Thrive Capital出资10亿美元,成为领投方)外,苹果(Apple)和英伟达(Nvidia)等大型科技公司显然也将参与融资。

当然,OpenAI 已经获得了一家非常有影响力的大型科技公司的投资:不到两年前,微软(Microsoft)在ChatGPT的开发者投资130亿美元。最近有报道称,微软正在考虑参与本轮融资(但尚不确定微软将以现金还是云计算额度的形式进行投资)。

融资所产生的一系列问题,足以让人们感到困惑。是否有证据表明OpenAI的业务能够证明这些投资的合理性?这些科技公司为什么都在争相投资该公司?由于OpenAI采用利润上限结构,这些公司投资OpenAI能否得到任何回报?科技行业是否正在面临反垄断机构的严格审查,行业的高度集中是否会引起反垄断机构的关注?

随着OpenAI的巨额融资即将结束,有些问题的答案将开始引起关注。与此同时,如果你想了解正在发生的情况,可以注意以下几个要点。

OpenAI为什么需要更多投资?

据媒体报道,OpenAI的营收仅仅超过30亿美元,其最新估值达到营收的30多倍。据知情人士对《财富》杂志表示,该公司的大多数营收来自ChatGPT的企业销售额,来自消费者订阅的收入微乎其微,而且OpenAI距离实现盈利仍相去甚远。

除了向大企业客户销售以外,OpenAI内部正在探索将其工具货币化的其他途径。知情人士称,该公司正在积极研究的一种选择是,在ChatGPT提供的结果中包含广告。知情人士称,另外一种选择是,创建满足特定需求的聊天机器人版本,例如出行等,并出售给消费者或大客户。

OpenAI仍在寻求更多投资,这表明它最近几年募集的数十亿美元资金,正在快速耗尽。考虑到训练OpenAI备受期待的GPT-5等高级人工智能模型的成本越来越高,驱动人工智能服务的成本也在不断增多,因此OpenAI需要不断寻找资金。山姆·阿尔特曼表示,他需要7万亿美元来发展其芯片制造业务,用于支持他的人工智能梦想。

投资者能获得什么回报?

如果OpenAI在未来某个时间点实现盈利或者上市,OpenAI的投资者将获得丰厚的回报。基于该公司的高估值,这个估值数字更有可能是基于预期和希望,而不是基于当前损益表中的具体数据。

OpenAI未来成功具体能给投资者带来哪些汇报,仍是个未知数。与微软的初始投资一样,苹果或英伟达等新投资者将在OpenAI经营的一家独立实体的未来利润中获得分成。OpenAI通过一种名为利润参与单位的股权形式进行交易,公司包含多个实体:一家非营利实体控制一家营利实体,该营利实体则控制一家控股公司,控股公司控制另外一家营利实体,最后这家就是微软投资的实体。(晕头转向了吗?你并不孤单。)

根据微软2023年与OpenAI达成的协议条款,微软比其他投资者有优先权。根据《财富》杂志当时的报道,OpenAI 75%的利润将直接交给微软,直到微软的投资金额(高达130亿美元)全部收回为止。

这意味着,对于目前正在投资OpenAI的一些科技公司而言,短期内它们的动机是出于战略而非财务上的考虑——从根本上来说,它们希望紧跟这家掀起生成式人工智能狂热的公司,并确保能够使用该公司的技术。苹果公司已经在其即将推出的Apple Intelligence产品中使用了ChatGPT技术作为基础,据报道,苹果并没有为此向OpenAI付费。

OpenAI为什么会设定利润上限?

2019年,在OpenAI发布ChatGPT之前,该公司表示为了支付其正在从事的AI工作的高额成本,将创建一家营利性部门。然而,无论OpenAI未来取得多大成功,初期投资者的回报将不超过其初始投资额的100倍(换言之,投资100万美元的回报不超过1亿美元)。OpenAI当时表示,预计“未来融资时的回报率将会更低”,这意味着后期投资者的回报会受到更大限制。超出上限的回报将进入OpenAI的非营利部门。

利润上限在OpenAI实现通用人工智能(AGI)之前适用。OpenAI将通用人工智能宽泛地定义为“整体比人类更聪明的人工智能系统”。如果OpenAI达到这个假设的里程碑,投资者在通用人工智能方面可能得不到任何回报。任何号称具备通用人工智能技术的系统,都不在OpenAI当前的许可结构当中,因此也不属于任何现有投资者协议的条款范围。该公司在2019年写道:“我们的结构使我们可以灵活寻找实现长期回报的途径,但我们希望在实现安全的通用人工智能之后,再去考虑如何实现回报。”为了让投资者满意,该公司可能已经开始调整“利润上限”结构。当前的融资谈判中可能就包含了“后通用人工智能”许可条款。

微软为什么允许苹果等竞争对手插足它与OpenAI的特殊关系?

OpenAI面临日益严格的审查,而且它与最大投资者微软的关系同样面临审查。微软的领导者一直希望避免其与OpenAI的交易受到监管审查,但去年晚些时候,阿尔特曼被驱逐的闹剧,让微软领导者的努力付之东流。微软一直是反垄断监管部门关注的对象,因此其领导者迫切希望避免卷入监管调查。现在,据媒体报道,美国和英国的监管机构正在就两家公司的关系展开调查。在那之后,微软CEO萨蒂亚·纳德拉一直强调公司在人工智能领域的独立工作和研究,甚至将OpenAI列为直接竞争对手。

如果微软参与有其他全球最大科技公司参与的OpenAI融资,将有助于微软进一步展示其在该公司事务上的“放手”态度。

而对于OpenAI而言,邀请其他大型科技公司参与投资,可以进一步提高必要的多样化。微软最近开始发展内部的人工智能能力,包括聘请Inflection AI的创始人,开发内部大语言模型等,都表明OpenAI必须了解过度依赖微软的风险。

当然,这些伎俩能否逃过监管机构的眼睛,仍是个巨大的未知数。今年7月,苹果和微软均放弃了以“观察者”的身份加入OpenAI董事会的计划,这表明面对监管机构的严格审查,两家公司都采取了更加谨慎的做法。尽管如此,距离美国总统大选只有几个月时间,政府换届可能改变政府对大型科技公司和人工智能的立场。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

从复杂的非营利-营利结构,到CEO被短暂驱逐和回归,OpenAI的发展过程不同寻常。

该初创公司最近的一轮融资就是典型的例子之一。此轮融资对该公司的估值据称达到惊人的1,030亿美元。据《华尔街日报》报道,OpenAI正在进行谈判,计划在新一轮融资中再融资数十亿美元。除了传统投资者(据报道,Thrive Capital出资10亿美元,成为领投方)外,苹果(Apple)和英伟达(Nvidia)等大型科技公司显然也将参与融资。

当然,OpenAI 已经获得了一家非常有影响力的大型科技公司的投资:不到两年前,微软(Microsoft)在ChatGPT的开发者投资130亿美元。最近有报道称,微软正在考虑参与本轮融资(但尚不确定微软将以现金还是云计算额度的形式进行投资)。

融资所产生的一系列问题,足以让人们感到困惑。是否有证据表明OpenAI的业务能够证明这些投资的合理性?这些科技公司为什么都在争相投资该公司?由于OpenAI采用利润上限结构,这些公司投资OpenAI能否得到任何回报?科技行业是否正在面临反垄断机构的严格审查,行业的高度集中是否会引起反垄断机构的关注?

随着OpenAI的巨额融资即将结束,有些问题的答案将开始引起关注。与此同时,如果你想了解正在发生的情况,可以注意以下几个要点。

OpenAI为什么需要更多投资?

据媒体报道,OpenAI的营收仅仅超过30亿美元,其最新估值达到营收的30多倍。据知情人士对《财富》杂志表示,该公司的大多数营收来自ChatGPT的企业销售额,来自消费者订阅的收入微乎其微,而且OpenAI距离实现盈利仍相去甚远。

除了向大企业客户销售以外,OpenAI内部正在探索将其工具货币化的其他途径。知情人士称,该公司正在积极研究的一种选择是,在ChatGPT提供的结果中包含广告。知情人士称,另外一种选择是,创建满足特定需求的聊天机器人版本,例如出行等,并出售给消费者或大客户。

OpenAI仍在寻求更多投资,这表明它最近几年募集的数十亿美元资金,正在快速耗尽。考虑到训练OpenAI备受期待的GPT-5等高级人工智能模型的成本越来越高,驱动人工智能服务的成本也在不断增多,因此OpenAI需要不断寻找资金。山姆·阿尔特曼表示,他需要7万亿美元来发展其芯片制造业务,用于支持他的人工智能梦想。

投资者能获得什么回报?

如果OpenAI在未来某个时间点实现盈利或者上市,OpenAI的投资者将获得丰厚的回报。基于该公司的高估值,这个估值数字更有可能是基于预期和希望,而不是基于当前损益表中的具体数据。

OpenAI未来成功具体能给投资者带来哪些汇报,仍是个未知数。与微软的初始投资一样,苹果或英伟达等新投资者将在OpenAI经营的一家独立实体的未来利润中获得分成。OpenAI通过一种名为利润参与单位的股权形式进行交易,公司包含多个实体:一家非营利实体控制一家营利实体,该营利实体则控制一家控股公司,控股公司控制另外一家营利实体,最后这家就是微软投资的实体。(晕头转向了吗?你并不孤单。)

根据微软2023年与OpenAI达成的协议条款,微软比其他投资者有优先权。根据《财富》杂志当时的报道,OpenAI 75%的利润将直接交给微软,直到微软的投资金额(高达130亿美元)全部收回为止。

这意味着,对于目前正在投资OpenAI的一些科技公司而言,短期内它们的动机是出于战略而非财务上的考虑——从根本上来说,它们希望紧跟这家掀起生成式人工智能狂热的公司,并确保能够使用该公司的技术。苹果公司已经在其即将推出的Apple Intelligence产品中使用了ChatGPT技术作为基础,据报道,苹果并没有为此向OpenAI付费。

OpenAI为什么会设定利润上限?

2019年,在OpenAI发布ChatGPT之前,该公司表示为了支付其正在从事的AI工作的高额成本,将创建一家营利性部门。然而,无论OpenAI未来取得多大成功,初期投资者的回报将不超过其初始投资额的100倍(换言之,投资100万美元的回报不超过1亿美元)。OpenAI当时表示,预计“未来融资时的回报率将会更低”,这意味着后期投资者的回报会受到更大限制。超出上限的回报将进入OpenAI的非营利部门。

利润上限在OpenAI实现通用人工智能(AGI)之前适用。OpenAI将通用人工智能宽泛地定义为“整体比人类更聪明的人工智能系统”。如果OpenAI达到这个假设的里程碑,投资者在通用人工智能方面可能得不到任何回报。任何号称具备通用人工智能技术的系统,都不在OpenAI当前的许可结构当中,因此也不属于任何现有投资者协议的条款范围。该公司在2019年写道:“我们的结构使我们可以灵活寻找实现长期回报的途径,但我们希望在实现安全的通用人工智能之后,再去考虑如何实现回报。”为了让投资者满意,该公司可能已经开始调整“利润上限”结构。当前的融资谈判中可能就包含了“后通用人工智能”许可条款。

微软为什么允许苹果等竞争对手插足它与OpenAI的特殊关系?

OpenAI面临日益严格的审查,而且它与最大投资者微软的关系同样面临审查。微软的领导者一直希望避免其与OpenAI的交易受到监管审查,但去年晚些时候,阿尔特曼被驱逐的闹剧,让微软领导者的努力付之东流。微软一直是反垄断监管部门关注的对象,因此其领导者迫切希望避免卷入监管调查。现在,据媒体报道,美国和英国的监管机构正在就两家公司的关系展开调查。在那之后,微软CEO萨蒂亚·纳德拉一直强调公司在人工智能领域的独立工作和研究,甚至将OpenAI列为直接竞争对手。

如果微软参与有其他全球最大科技公司参与的OpenAI融资,将有助于微软进一步展示其在该公司事务上的“放手”态度。

而对于OpenAI而言,邀请其他大型科技公司参与投资,可以进一步提高必要的多样化。微软最近开始发展内部的人工智能能力,包括聘请Inflection AI的创始人,开发内部大语言模型等,都表明OpenAI必须了解过度依赖微软的风险。

当然,这些伎俩能否逃过监管机构的眼睛,仍是个巨大的未知数。今年7月,苹果和微软均放弃了以“观察者”的身份加入OpenAI董事会的计划,这表明面对监管机构的严格审查,两家公司都采取了更加谨慎的做法。尽管如此,距离美国总统大选只有几个月时间,政府换届可能改变政府对大型科技公司和人工智能的立场。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

From its convoluted non-profit-for-profit structure to the brief ouster and return of its CEO, there is not much about OpenAI that’s typical.

The startup’s latest funding round, which would reportedly value OpenAI at a whopping $103 billion, is a case in point. According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI is in talks to raise several billion dollars in a new funding round. In addition to traditional VC investors—with Thrive Capital reportedly contributing $1 billion to lead the round—a who’s who of Big Tech powers such as Apple and Nvidia may apparently also join the funding party.

Of course, OpenAI already has a very prominent Big Tech heavyweight in its corner: Microsoft, which invested $13 billion in the ChatGPT maker less than two years ago. According to the recent reports, Microsoft is also considering investing in the current round (though it’s not clear if the investment would be in cash or cloud computing credits).

The string of questions all of this raises is enough to tie up anyone’s tongue. Is there any evidence that OpenAI’s business can justify all this investment? Why are all these tech companies piling in? Can they get any return from OpenAI given its profit-capped structure? And isn’t the tech industry under intense scrutiny from antitrust regulators who might look askance at such concentration?

As the OpenAI funding mega deal moves closer to completion, some of the answers to the questions will likely start to come into focus. In the meantime, here are some key points to consider if you’re trying to get a grasp of what’s happening.

Why does OpenAI need more money?

OpenAI’s revenue is reportedly just over $3 billion, putting the potential new valuation at more than 30 times the money it brings in. Most of its revenue comes from enterprise sales of ChatGPT, with very little coming from individual consumer subscriptions to the tool, and OpenAI is far from profitable, a person familiar with the company told Fortune.

Work inside OpenAI is ongoing to game out ways to monetize its tools beyond sales to large enterprise customers. Advertising within results given by ChatGPT is one option being actively worked on, according to the person familiar with the matter. Another is creating versions of the chatbot that are packaged for specific needs, like travel, and sold that way to consumers or large customers, the person added.

Still, the fact that OpenAI is seeking out new investment suggests that it’s rapidly burning through the billions of dollars it’s raised in recent years. And given the ever-escalating costs of training advanced AI models like OpenAI’s widely anticipated GPT 5, as well as the costs of powering AI services, the need for cash is ever present. Sam Altman has said he needs $7 trillion for a separate chip manufacturing venture to power his AI dreams.

So what’s in it for investors?

Should OpenAI get to a point of profitability at some point, or go public, there is a world in which investors would be paid back well for their backing of OpenAI. Given the amount of the valuation, it’s likely the number is based more on expectations, hope, than anything concrete in today’s income statement.

What investors definitely get in return for any future success of OpenAI is opaque. As with Microsoft’s initial investment, new investors like Apple or Nvidia likely get a stake in future profits held by a separate entity operated by OpenAI. OpenAI trades in profit participation units, a form of equity, and the company is many entities in one: a nonprofit arm is in control of a for-profit arm, which itself has control of a holding company, which controls another for-profit entity, and that entity is what Microsoft is technically invested in. (Confused yet? You’re not alone).

Under the terms of Microsoft’s 2023 deal with OpenAI, Microsoft gets first dibs over other investors. As Fortune reported at the time 75% of OpenAI’s profits will flow directly to Microsoft until the sum that Microsoft invested (a not trivial $13 billion) is reached.

All of this is to say, that for some the tech companies reportedly investing, the near-term motivation is probably less financial than it is strategic—basically a way to stay close to the company that started the generative AI craze and to ensure access to its technology. Apple is already using ChatGPT as a basis for some of its upcoming offerings in Apple Intelligence—something Apple is reportedly not paying OpenAI for.

But wait, doesn’t OpenAI have a cap on profits?

In 2019, before OpenAI had even released ChatGPT, the company said it was creating a for-profit segment of the company in order to sustain the costly AI work it was doing. However, the initial round of investors would have returns limited to 100x their initial investment, no matter how wildly successful OpenAI might become (an investment of $1 million dollars, in other words, could not see a return of more than $100 million). OpenAI said at the time that it expected “this multiple to be lower for future rounds,” meaning later investors would have further limits put on their possible returns. Returns outside of the cap are set to go to the non-profit arm of OpenAI.

That is, unless and until OpenAI achieves artificial general intelligence, or AGI, which the company loosely defines as “AI systems that are generally smarter than humans.” Should OpenAI hit this hypothetical milestone, it’s possible that investors could be left with no return on their investment when it comes to AGI. Any system that comes of a purported AGI technology is outside OpenAI’s current licensing structure, and therefore outside the terms of any current investor deals. “Our structure gives us flexibility for how to create a return in the long term, but we hope to figure that out only once we’ve created safe AGI,” the company wrote in 2019. Changes to the “capped profit” structure may already be on the way in an effort to keep investors happy. And it’s possible that the current funding negotiations could include “post-AGI” licensing terms.

Why would Microsoft let rivals like Apple barge into its special relationship with OpenAI?

As scrutiny of OpenAI has increased, so has its relationship with Microsoft as its biggest backer. The messy ouster of Altman late last year effectively undid work by Microsoft leaders to keep their dealings with OpenAI outside regulatory scrutiny. Microsoft has been the target of antitrust regulators in the past, and leaders were keen to avoid more entanglements. Now, regulators in the U.S. and UK are reportedly investigating the two companies’ ties. Since then, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has been sure to talk up his company’s independent AI work and research, even listing OpenAI as a direct competitor.

Participating in a funding round for OpenAI that includes other of the world’s biggest tech companies would further Microsoft’s aim to show itself as more hands-off when it comes to the company.

For OpenAI meanwhile, bringing on other Big Tech investors could offer some much needed diversification. Microsoft’s recent moves to build up its own AI capabilities, including hiring the founders of Inflection AI and building its own in-house LLMs, is all the evidence OpenAI needs to understand the risk of being too reliant on Microsoft.

Whether any of these machinations would pass muster with regulators of course is a big unknown. In July, Apple and Microsoft both gave up plans to take “observer” seats on OpenAI’s board, underscoring the cautious approach the companies are taking while they’re under the regulatory microscope. That said, U.S. presidential elections are only months away, and a change in administration could potentially change the government’s view of Big Tech and AI.

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