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美国劳动力市场降温,求职者的不安全感日益增加

在美国,有工作的人觉得生活有保障。而许多没有工作的人却缺乏安全感。

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Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images

去年,乔维·阿里亚斯被音乐流媒体服务平台Spotify解雇,但他表示他曾很快找到了一份软件工程师的工作。2019年,他找工作的过程非常轻松。

他说道:“当时,有许多招聘人员联系我,我甚至不得不直接拒绝他们。”

虽然阿里亚斯最近也找到了工作,但找工作过程经历的考验是出人意料的。

39岁的阿里亚斯表示:“我原以为找工作可能需要三个月时间。结果却花了一年零三个月。”

阿里亚斯和其他求职者可以证明,几年来炙手可热的美国劳动力市场已经开始降温。目前美国的就业市场处于一种不正常的状态:有工作的人基本上是安全的,因为目前裁员处于历史低点。但各公司放慢了招聘的节奏,找工作变得更加困难。上周五,美国政府公布了8月的招聘人数。7月份的新增就业岗位已经远远不及预期。

英迪德招聘实验室(Indeed Hiring Lab)北美区经济研究总监尼克·邦克表示:“如果你有工作,而且对工作很满意,希望继续从事这份工作,那么目前可以说万事大吉。但如果你处于失业状态,或者虽然有工作但想要跳槽,那么你的情况就不像几年前那么乐观了。”

美国政府最新公布的职位空缺与招聘情况月度报告显示,2022年3月,随着美国经济加速摆脱疫情导致的衰退,职位空缺数量创历史新高,但在那之后,职位空缺减少了三分之一以上。

临时支援服务公司在过去28个月中,有26个月都在减少工作岗位。这是一个重要的信号:经济学家们普遍认为,临时就业岗位是预测就业市场走向的风向标,因为许多雇主在招聘全职员工之前,会先雇佣临时工。

在上周对本地经济状况的总结中,美联储的地区银行报告了就业市场放缓的迹象。纽约联邦储备银行(New York Fed)发现,招聘机构表示就业岗位增速放缓,“因为公司在做出聘用决策时变得更加犹豫不决。求职者在求职市场上等待的时间更长。”

明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行(Minneapolis Fed)称,招聘机构发现对于聘用人选,“公司变得更加挑剔”。亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Atlanta Fed)发现“只有少数”公司计划增加招聘。

两年前大行其道的跳槽热有所放缓,因为上班族对于找到薪酬更高或工作环境更好的工作,逐渐失去了信心。今年7月,美国的辞职人数只有330万人,而在2022年4月,辞职人数峰值为450万人

招聘网站Glassdoor的首席经济学家阿伦·特拉萨斯表示:“人们选择安于现状,因为他们担心可能找不到新工作。”

美国劳工部在其经过修正的年度就业增长评估中表示,截至今年3月份的12个月,美国新增就业岗位比之前预估的新增岗位数量少了约818,000个。

一方面,招聘速度放缓不足为奇。随着美国经济从新冠疫情导致的衰退中强势复苏,2021年和2022年经历了有史以来最为迅猛的就业增长。上班族们获得了几十年来从未有过的谈判筹码。为了跟上飞速增长的销售,各公司加紧招兵买马。许多雇主为了留住员工,不得不加薪和提供奖金。

招聘放缓是不可避免的,甚至有经济学家们认为,从长远来看这有助于就业市场的健康发展,可以减轻工资增长的压力和通胀压力。否则,经济可能过热,迫使美联储更积极地实行信贷紧缩,从而引发经济衰退。

疫情结束之后的就业市场繁荣,与2007至2009年大衰退之后的缓慢复苏形成了鲜明对比。当时,美国经济用了六年多时间,才恢复失去的就业岗位。相比之下,在不到两年半的时间里,2020年因疫情导致的惊人的失业人数(2,200万)就得到了扭转。

经济飞速增长引发了通胀,为了给就业市场降温和放缓通胀,美联储被迫在2022年和2023年进行了11次加息。一段时间以来,美国的经济和就业市场似乎并没有受到借款成本增长的影响。消费者继续支出,公司持续扩张,经济保持增长势头。

但最终,持续的高利率开始产生影响。去年,面对高利率,包括Spotify等科技巨头在内的多家备受关注的公司宣布裁员。但除了科技行业和少量裁员的金融业以外,大多数美国公司并没有进行裁员。首次申领失业补助金的人数,几乎与疫情之前的人数相当。

但没有裁员的公司不一定会增加招聘。

Glassdoor的特雷拉斯表示:“与一两年前相比,找工作的难度更大,特别是对于职场新人来说。由于过去一年半科技、金融和专业服务行业的逐渐裁员,就业市场上有大批高技能、经验丰富的人才。”

“所有证据都表明,他们正在找工作。但与此同时,他们也减少了职场新人找到工作的机会……应届毕业生和没有太多实际工作经验的新人受到了影响,他们突然要在就业市场上与有两年、五年甚至十年工作经验的人竞争。当这些大鱼在市场上时,小鱼自然就会遭到排挤。”

尽管面临数十年来最高利率带来的压力,美国经济依旧保持稳健,从4月至6月,年增长率达到了3%。大多数美国人都享有可靠的就业保障。

但由于换工作的难度加大,就连有工作的人也感受到了压力。

特雷拉斯表示:“事实上,许多人虽然有工作,但他们依旧对经济状况深感担忧。与以前相比,人们对工作产生了一些不安全感,在职场上感受到更大的压力。”

纽约联邦储备银行在8月份的一项调查中发现,整体而言,美国人对失业的担忧,比2014年以来的任何时候都要严重。2014年,人们刚刚开始感受到在2008年至2009年大衰退之后经济复苏的全面影响。

更令人们感到焦虑的是,最近就业市场繁荣的景象仍历历在目。

特雷拉斯表示:“大多数人参考的时间点依旧是2021年和2022年,当时就业市场非常强劲,在经济学家们眼中一个(就业市场从不可持续的水平)正常化的过程,却让许多人感觉像是失去了社会地位。”

以艾比·奈夫为例。她于2023年5月毕业于俄亥俄大学(Ohio University),希望能进入新闻行业。她一直在努力寻找一份“传统写作工作”。

她说道:“找一份固定的新闻工作非常困难。”

与此同时,23岁的奈夫加入了政府下属的“美国志愿队”(AmeriCorps),在俄亥俄州东南部动员美国人提供社区服务。这份工作薪酬微薄,但为她提供了写作的机会,并且可以学习从林业、到可持续农业再到流域管理等各方面的知识。

她没想到在她的专业领域找工作会如此困难。

奈夫沮丧地说道:“我以为我在大学里做了所有‘正确的事情’。”

她编辑过一本校园杂志,在行业内积累了一些人脉。她获得了一些面试的机会,但后来才知道她应聘的岗位已招满,而雇主并没有通知她。

她说道:“雇主从我的生活中‘直接消失了’。我感觉必须得追问雇主,才能得到他们对我的求职申请的回复。”

软件工程师阿里亚斯在2023年6月“刚被解雇”就开始找工作。最开始找工作的时候,他还没有太在意。他拿出时间照顾刚出生的女儿,花着Spotify支付的离职补偿金。但随着求职变得越来越困难,他在今年早些时候“决定认真起来”。

阿里亚斯开始开网约车,并向乘客打听工作机会。他联系到一家公司,并通过这家公司参加了计算机编程训练营,积攒了人脉。这些人脉最终带来了回报,让他找到了一份新工作。

但事实证明,找工作的过程比他所想象的更加令人沮丧。他沟通过的雇主直接没有了下文,没有给他任何解释。

阿里亚斯表示:“这是找工作过程中最糟糕的经历。你收到一条介绍信息。然后,你给对方发去了自己的简历。然后就杳无音讯。你与雇主的沟通戛然而止。或许你会收到一条自动回复。你不知道发生了什么,不知道自己做错了什么……这真得让人感到沮丧,非常有压力,因为你对这件事一无所知。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

去年,乔维·阿里亚斯被音乐流媒体服务平台Spotify解雇,但他表示他曾很快找到了一份软件工程师的工作。2019年,他找工作的过程非常轻松。

他说道:“当时,有许多招聘人员联系我,我甚至不得不直接拒绝他们。”

虽然阿里亚斯最近也找到了工作,但找工作过程经历的考验是出人意料的。

39岁的阿里亚斯表示:“我原以为找工作可能需要三个月时间。结果却花了一年零三个月。”

阿里亚斯和其他求职者可以证明,几年来炙手可热的美国劳动力市场已经开始降温。目前美国的就业市场处于一种不正常的状态:有工作的人基本上是安全的,因为目前裁员处于历史低点。但各公司放慢了招聘的节奏,找工作变得更加困难。上周五,美国政府公布了8月的招聘人数。7月份的新增就业岗位已经远远不及预期。

英迪德招聘实验室(Indeed Hiring Lab)北美区经济研究总监尼克·邦克表示:“如果你有工作,而且对工作很满意,希望继续从事这份工作,那么目前可以说万事大吉。但如果你处于失业状态,或者虽然有工作但想要跳槽,那么你的情况就不像几年前那么乐观了。”

美国政府最新公布的职位空缺与招聘情况月度报告显示,2022年3月,随着美国经济加速摆脱疫情导致的衰退,职位空缺数量创历史新高,但在那之后,职位空缺减少了三分之一以上。

临时支援服务公司在过去28个月中,有26个月都在减少工作岗位。这是一个重要的信号:经济学家们普遍认为,临时就业岗位是预测就业市场走向的风向标,因为许多雇主在招聘全职员工之前,会先雇佣临时工。

在上周对本地经济状况的总结中,美联储的地区银行报告了就业市场放缓的迹象。纽约联邦储备银行(New York Fed)发现,招聘机构表示就业岗位增速放缓,“因为公司在做出聘用决策时变得更加犹豫不决。求职者在求职市场上等待的时间更长。”

明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行(Minneapolis Fed)称,招聘机构发现对于聘用人选,“公司变得更加挑剔”。亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Atlanta Fed)发现“只有少数”公司计划增加招聘。

两年前大行其道的跳槽热有所放缓,因为上班族对于找到薪酬更高或工作环境更好的工作,逐渐失去了信心。今年7月,美国的辞职人数只有330万人,而在2022年4月,辞职人数峰值为450万人

招聘网站Glassdoor的首席经济学家阿伦·特拉萨斯表示:“人们选择安于现状,因为他们担心可能找不到新工作。”

美国劳工部在其经过修正的年度就业增长评估中表示,截至今年3月份的12个月,美国新增就业岗位比之前预估的新增岗位数量少了约818,000个。

一方面,招聘速度放缓不足为奇。随着美国经济从新冠疫情导致的衰退中强势复苏,2021年和2022年经历了有史以来最为迅猛的就业增长。上班族们获得了几十年来从未有过的谈判筹码。为了跟上飞速增长的销售,各公司加紧招兵买马。许多雇主为了留住员工,不得不加薪和提供奖金。

招聘放缓是不可避免的,甚至有经济学家们认为,从长远来看这有助于就业市场的健康发展,可以减轻工资增长的压力和通胀压力。否则,经济可能过热,迫使美联储更积极地实行信贷紧缩,从而引发经济衰退。

疫情结束之后的就业市场繁荣,与2007至2009年大衰退之后的缓慢复苏形成了鲜明对比。当时,美国经济用了六年多时间,才恢复失去的就业岗位。相比之下,在不到两年半的时间里,2020年因疫情导致的惊人的失业人数(2,200万)就得到了扭转。

经济飞速增长引发了通胀,为了给就业市场降温和放缓通胀,美联储被迫在2022年和2023年进行了11次加息。一段时间以来,美国的经济和就业市场似乎并没有受到借款成本增长的影响。消费者继续支出,公司持续扩张,经济保持增长势头。

但最终,持续的高利率开始产生影响。去年,面对高利率,包括Spotify等科技巨头在内的多家备受关注的公司宣布裁员。但除了科技行业和少量裁员的金融业以外,大多数美国公司并没有进行裁员。首次申领失业补助金的人数,几乎与疫情之前的人数相当。

但没有裁员的公司不一定会增加招聘。

Glassdoor的特雷拉斯表示:“与一两年前相比,找工作的难度更大,特别是对于职场新人来说。由于过去一年半科技、金融和专业服务行业的逐渐裁员,就业市场上有大批高技能、经验丰富的人才。”

“所有证据都表明,他们正在找工作。但与此同时,他们也减少了职场新人找到工作的机会……应届毕业生和没有太多实际工作经验的新人受到了影响,他们突然要在就业市场上与有两年、五年甚至十年工作经验的人竞争。当这些大鱼在市场上时,小鱼自然就会遭到排挤。”

尽管面临数十年来最高利率带来的压力,美国经济依旧保持稳健,从4月至6月,年增长率达到了3%。大多数美国人都享有可靠的就业保障。

但由于换工作的难度加大,就连有工作的人也感受到了压力。

特雷拉斯表示:“事实上,许多人虽然有工作,但他们依旧对经济状况深感担忧。与以前相比,人们对工作产生了一些不安全感,在职场上感受到更大的压力。”

纽约联邦储备银行在8月份的一项调查中发现,整体而言,美国人对失业的担忧,比2014年以来的任何时候都要严重。2014年,人们刚刚开始感受到在2008年至2009年大衰退之后经济复苏的全面影响。

更令人们感到焦虑的是,最近就业市场繁荣的景象仍历历在目。

特雷拉斯表示:“大多数人参考的时间点依旧是2021年和2022年,当时就业市场非常强劲,在经济学家们眼中一个(就业市场从不可持续的水平)正常化的过程,却让许多人感觉像是失去了社会地位。”

以艾比·奈夫为例。她于2023年5月毕业于俄亥俄大学(Ohio University),希望能进入新闻行业。她一直在努力寻找一份“传统写作工作”。

她说道:“找一份固定的新闻工作非常困难。”

与此同时,23岁的奈夫加入了政府下属的“美国志愿队”(AmeriCorps),在俄亥俄州东南部动员美国人提供社区服务。这份工作薪酬微薄,但为她提供了写作的机会,并且可以学习从林业、到可持续农业再到流域管理等各方面的知识。

她没想到在她的专业领域找工作会如此困难。

奈夫沮丧地说道:“我以为我在大学里做了所有‘正确的事情’。”

她编辑过一本校园杂志,在行业内积累了一些人脉。她获得了一些面试的机会,但后来才知道她应聘的岗位已招满,而雇主并没有通知她。

她说道:“雇主从我的生活中‘直接消失了’。我感觉必须得追问雇主,才能得到他们对我的求职申请的回复。”

软件工程师阿里亚斯在2023年6月“刚被解雇”就开始找工作。最开始找工作的时候,他还没有太在意。他拿出时间照顾刚出生的女儿,花着Spotify支付的离职补偿金。但随着求职变得越来越困难,他在今年早些时候“决定认真起来”。

阿里亚斯开始开网约车,并向乘客打听工作机会。他联系到一家公司,并通过这家公司参加了计算机编程训练营,积攒了人脉。这些人脉最终带来了回报,让他找到了一份新工作。

但事实证明,找工作的过程比他所想象的更加令人沮丧。他沟通过的雇主直接没有了下文,没有给他任何解释。

阿里亚斯表示:“这是找工作过程中最糟糕的经历。你收到一条介绍信息。然后,你给对方发去了自己的简历。然后就杳无音讯。你与雇主的沟通戛然而止。或许你会收到一条自动回复。你不知道发生了什么,不知道自己做错了什么……这真得让人感到沮丧,非常有压力,因为你对这件事一无所知。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Laid off by the music streaming service Spotify last year, Joovay Arias figured he’d land another job as a software engineer fairly soon. His previous job search, in 2019, had been a breeze.

“Back then,” he said, “I had tons of recruiters reaching out to me — to the point where I had to turn them down.”

Arias did find another job recently, but only after an unexpected ordeal.

“I thought it was going to be something like three months,’’ said Arias, 39. “It turned into a year and three months.’’

As Arias and other jobseekers can attest, the American labor market, red-hot for the past few years, has cooled. The job market is now in an unusual place: Jobholders are mostly secure, with layoffs low, historically speaking. Yet the pace of hiring has slowed, and landing a job has become harder. On Friday, the government will report on whether hiring slowed sharply again in August after a much-weaker-than-expected July job gain.

“If you have a job and you’re happy with that job and you want to hold onto that job, things are pretty good right now,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “But if you’re out of work or you have a job and you want to switch to a new one, things aren’t as rosy as they were a couple of years ago.’’

Since peaking in March 2022 as the economy accelerated out of the pandemic recession, the number of listed job openings has dropped by more than a third, according to the government’s latest monthly report on openings and hiring.

Temporary-help firms have reduced jobs for 26 of the past 28 months. That’s a telling sign: Economists generally regard temp jobs as a harbinger for where the job market is headed because many employers hire temps before committing to full-time hires.

In a roundup this week of local economic conditions, the Federal Reserve’s regional banks reported signs of a decelerating job market. Staffing agencies have said that job gains have slowed “as firms are approaching hiring decisions with greater hesitancy,” the New York Fed found. “Job candidates are lingering on the market longer.”

The Minneapolis Fed said that a staffing agency reported that “businesses are getting a lot more picky” about whom they hire. And the Atlanta Fed found that “only a few” companies planned to step up hiring.

Job-hopping, so rampant two years ago, has slowed as workers have gradually lost confidence in their ability to find better pay or working conditions somewhere else. Just 3.3 million Americans quit their jobs in July, compared with a peak of 4.5 million in April 2022.

“People are staying put because they’re afraid they won’t find new jobs,’’ said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at the employment website Glassdoor.

And the Labor Department has reported, in its annual revised estimates of employment growth, that the economy added 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months that ended in March than it had previously estimated.

In one respect, it’s not at all surprising that the pace of hiring is now moderating. Job growth in 2021 and 2022, as the economy roared back from the COVID-19 recession, was the most explosive on record. Workers gained leverage they hadn’t enjoyed in decades. Companies scrambled to hire fast enough to keep up with surging sales. Many employers had to jack up pay and offer bonuses to keep employees.

It was inevitable — and even healthy, economists say, in the long run — for hiring to slow, thereby easing pressure on wage growth and inflation pressures. Otherwise, the economy could have overheated and forced the Fed to tighten credit so aggressively as to cause a recession.

The post-pandemic jobs boom was a marked contrast to the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Back then, it took more than six years for the economy to recover the jobs that had been lost. By contrast, the breathtaking pandemic job losses of 2020 — 22 million — were reversed in less than 2 1/2 years.

Still, the surging economy ignited inflation, leading the Fed to raise interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to try to cool the job market and slow inflation. And for a while, the economy and the job market appeared immune from higher borrowing costs. Consumers kept spending, businesses kept expanding and the economy kept growing.

But eventually the continued high rates began leaving their mark. Several high-profile companies, including tech giants like Spotify, announced layoffs last year in the face of high interest rates. Outside of the economy’s technology sector, though, and, to a lesser extent, finance, most American companies haven’t cut jobs. The number of people filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits is barely above where it was before the pandemic struck.

Yet the same companies that are keeping workers aren’t necessarily adding more.

“Compared to a year or two ago, it’s a lot more difficult, particularly for entry-level folks,’’ Glassdoor’s Terrazas said. “Because of the gradual drip of layoffs in tech and finance, in professional services over the past year and a half, there have been a lot of high-skilled, experienced folks on the job market.

“By all evidence, they are finding jobs. But they are also pushing more entry-level folks further and further down the queue… Recent grads, folks without a lot of on-the-job experience are feeling the effects of suddenly competing with people who have two, five, 10 years’ experience in the jobs market. When those big fish are in the market, the little fish naturally get squeezed out.’’

Despite the pressure of the highest interest rates in decades, the economy remains in solid shape, having grown at a healthy 3% annual pace from April through June. Most Americans are enjoying solid job security.

Still, given the growing difficulty of changing jobs, even some of those job holders are feeling the chill.

“The reality is a lot of people, even when they have jobs, are feeling a lot of angst about the economy,’’ Terrazas said. “People are feeling a little bit job insecurity, a lot more pressure in the workplace than they have in a while.’’

In an August survey, the New York Fed found that Americans as a whole are more worried about losing their jobs now than at any time since 2014, when people were just beginning to feel the full effects of the recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Adding to the anxiety is that memories of the recent job boom are still fresh.

“The reference point for most people is still 2021, 2022, when the job market was very strong, and what looks like for us economists as a normalization (of the job market from unsustainable levels), I think for a lot of people feels like a loss of status,’’ Terrazas said.

Consider Abby Neff, who, since graduating from Ohio University in May 2023, has struggled to find the “old-fashioned writing job’’ that she hoped to land in journalism

“It’s been pretty tough,” she said, “to find a permanent journalism job.”

In the meantime, Neff, 23, has joined the government’s AmeriCorps agency, which mobilizes Americans to perform community service, in southeastern Ohio. The job doesn’t pay much. But it has given her the opportunity to write and to learn about everything from forestry to sustainable agriculture to watershed management.

She hadn’t expected to encounter such difficulty in finding a job in her field.

“I feel like I did all the ‘right things’ in college,’’ Neff said ruefully.

She edited a campus magazine and made contacts in the business. She has landed some interviews, only to learn later that the job was filled without her having heard from the employer.

“I will get ‘ghosted,’ ‘’ she said. “I almost feel like I have to hunt employers down to even get a response to an application or submission.”

Arias, the software engineer, started looking for a job “the minute I got laid off’’ in June 2023. At first, he was casual about it. He took time off to care for his newborn daughter and drew money out of his severance package from Spotify. But when the job hunt proved difficult, he “decided to really ramp it up’’ early this year.

Arias started driving for a ride-sharing service and getting job leads from passengers. He reached out to a company through which he had taken part in a computer coding bootcamp, seeking contacts. Eventually, the networking paid off with a new job.

Yet the process proved much more frustrating than he had envisioned. Employers he had communicated with would vanish without explanation.

“That’s the worst part about the experience,’’ Arias said. “You get that introductory message. Then you send your resume. And then that’s it. Communication would end there. Or you’d get an automated response. So you don’t know what happened, what you did wrong … It just feels really demoralizing, really stressful, because you don’t know what happened.”

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