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美联储议息会议前通胀降至三年低点

美联社
2024-09-14

美联储可能在即将召开的会议上降息。

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美联储可能在即将召开的会议上降息。图片来源:NATHAN HOWARD/GETTY IMAGES

随着物价同比涨幅创下三年来的新低,美国通胀后疫情时代的飙升势头在上个月进一步缓解,这为美联储下周降息扫清了道路。

美国劳工部(Labor Department)周三公布的报告显示,8月份消费者价格较上年同期上涨2.5%。这是连续第五年下降,也是自2021年2月以来的最小增幅。从7月到8月,价格仅上涨了0.2%。

剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本,8月份所谓的核心价格较上年同期上涨3.2%,与7月份持平。上月核心价格环比上涨0.3%,较7月份0.2%的涨幅有所回升。经济学家密切关注核心价格,原因是核心价格通常能更好地反映未来的通胀趋势。

几个月来,通胀率下降逐渐缓解了美国消费者的压力(他们受到了三年前爆发的价格飙升的冲击,尤其是食品、汽油、租金和其他生活必需品)。通胀率在2022年年中达到9.1%的峰值,为40年来的最高水平。

美联储官员已经表示,他们对通胀率回落到2%的目标越来越有信心,目前正将重点转向支持正在逐步降温的就业市场。因此,政策制定者准备开始将关键利率从23年来的高位下调,希望以此提振经济增长和就业。

市场普遍预期美联储下周将小幅降息25个基点。随着时间的推移,一系列的降息措施应该会降低整个经济体的借贷成本,包括抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡。

最新的通胀数据可能会在最后几周的总统竞选中发挥作用。前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)将通胀飙升归咎于副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)。2021年初,全球供应链中断,导致零部件和劳动力严重短缺,最终导致通胀飙升。哈里斯提议为购房者和建筑商提供补贴,以降低住房成本,并支持联邦政府禁止食品杂货价格欺诈。特朗普曾表示,他将提高能源产量,以此来降低整体通胀。

美国能源通胀管理局(Energy Inflation Administration)的数据显示,8月份通胀再次放缓的一大关键原因是,上个月每加仑汽油价格下跌了约10美分,全美平均油价约为3.29美元。

经济学家还预计,政府针对食品杂货价格和租金采取的措施将放缓上涨速度。虽然食品价格比疫情前上涨了约20%,但在过去一年中几乎没有变化。

通胀放缓的另一个潜在驱动因素是,随着一批新建公寓竣工,新公寓租赁成本已开始降温。

根据房地产经纪公司Redfin的数据,8月份新租约的租金中位数仅较上年同期上涨0.9%,至每月1645美元。但政府采取的措施包括所有类型租金,包括那些已在公寓居住数月或数年的人的租金。新租金增速的放缓需要一段时间才能体现在政府的数据中。根据政府公布的消费者价格指数,7月份租金较上年同期上涨5.1%。

美国人的工资增长也更加缓慢,年均增长约3.5%,仍是相对稳健的速度——这降低了通胀压力。两年前,工资增长率曾一度突破5%,这一水平可能迫使企业大幅提价,以弥补劳动力成本的上升。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在上个月的一次高调讲话中指出,通胀正在得到控制,并暗示就业市场不太可能成为通胀压力的来源。

过去三年来,消费者推动了经济的发展。但是,他们愈加通过举债来维持消费和信用卡支出,汽车贷款的不良信贷率也在上升,这让人担心他们可能很快被迫控制支出。消费者支出减少可能导致更多雇主冻结招聘,甚至裁员。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

随着物价同比涨幅创下三年来的新低,美国通胀后疫情时代的飙升势头在上个月进一步缓解,这为美联储下周降息扫清了道路。

美国劳工部(Labor Department)周三公布的报告显示,8月份消费者价格较上年同期上涨2.5%。这是连续第五年下降,也是自2021年2月以来的最小增幅。从7月到8月,价格仅上涨了0.2%。

剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本,8月份所谓的核心价格较上年同期上涨3.2%,与7月份持平。上月核心价格环比上涨0.3%,较7月份0.2%的涨幅有所回升。经济学家密切关注核心价格,原因是核心价格通常能更好地反映未来的通胀趋势。

几个月来,通胀率下降逐渐缓解了美国消费者的压力(他们受到了三年前爆发的价格飙升的冲击,尤其是食品、汽油、租金和其他生活必需品)。通胀率在2022年年中达到9.1%的峰值,为40年来的最高水平。

美联储官员已经表示,他们对通胀率回落到2%的目标越来越有信心,目前正将重点转向支持正在逐步降温的就业市场。因此,政策制定者准备开始将关键利率从23年来的高位下调,希望以此提振经济增长和就业。

市场普遍预期美联储下周将小幅降息25个基点。随着时间的推移,一系列的降息措施应该会降低整个经济体的借贷成本,包括抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡。

最新的通胀数据可能会在最后几周的总统竞选中发挥作用。前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)将通胀飙升归咎于副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)。2021年初,全球供应链中断,导致零部件和劳动力严重短缺,最终导致通胀飙升。哈里斯提议为购房者和建筑商提供补贴,以降低住房成本,并支持联邦政府禁止食品杂货价格欺诈。特朗普曾表示,他将提高能源产量,以此来降低整体通胀。

美国能源通胀管理局(Energy Inflation Administration)的数据显示,8月份通胀再次放缓的一大关键原因是,上个月每加仑汽油价格下跌了约10美分,全美平均油价约为3.29美元。

经济学家还预计,政府针对食品杂货价格和租金采取的措施将放缓上涨速度。虽然食品价格比疫情前上涨了约20%,但在过去一年中几乎没有变化。

通胀放缓的另一个潜在驱动因素是,随着一批新建公寓竣工,新公寓租赁成本已开始降温。

根据房地产经纪公司Redfin的数据,8月份新租约的租金中位数仅较上年同期上涨0.9%,至每月1645美元。但政府采取的措施包括所有类型租金,包括那些已在公寓居住数月或数年的人的租金。新租金增速的放缓需要一段时间才能体现在政府的数据中。根据政府公布的消费者价格指数,7月份租金较上年同期上涨5.1%。

美国人的工资增长也更加缓慢,年均增长约3.5%,仍是相对稳健的速度——这降低了通胀压力。两年前,工资增长率曾一度突破5%,这一水平可能迫使企业大幅提价,以弥补劳动力成本的上升。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在上个月的一次高调讲话中指出,通胀正在得到控制,并暗示就业市场不太可能成为通胀压力的来源。

过去三年来,消费者推动了经济的发展。但是,他们愈加通过举债来维持消费和信用卡支出,汽车贷款的不良信贷率也在上升,这让人担心他们可能很快被迫控制支出。消费者支出减少可能导致更多雇主冻结招聘,甚至裁员。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

The post-pandemic spike in U.S. inflation eased further last month as year-over-year price increases reached a three-year low, clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.

Wednesday’s report from the Labor Department showed that consumer prices rose 2.5% in August from a year earlier. It was the fifth straight annual drop and the smallest such increase since February 2021. From July to August, prices rose just 0.2%.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose 3.2% in August from 12 months earlier, the same as in July. On a month-to-month basis, core prices rose 0.3% last month, a pickup from July’s 0.2% increase. Economists closely watch core prices, which typically provide a better read of future inflation trends.

For months, falling inflation has provided gradual relief to America’s consumers, who were stung by the price surges that erupted three years ago, particularly for food, gas, rent and other necessities. Inflation peaked in mid-2022 at 9.1%, the highest rate in four decades.

Fed officials have signaled that they’re increasingly confident that inflation is falling back to their 2% target and are now shifting their focus to supporting the job market, which is steadily cooling. As a result, the policymakers are poised to begin cutting their key rate from its 23-year high in hopes of bolstering growth and hiring.

A modest quarter-point cut is widely expected next week. Over time, a series of rate cuts should reduce the cost of borrowing across the economy, including for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

The latest inflation figures could inject themselves into the presidential race in its final weeks. Former President Donald Trump has heaped blame on Vice President Kamala Harris for the jump in inflation, which erupted in early 2021 as global supply chains seized up, causing severe shortages of parts and labor. Harris has proposed subsidies for home buyers and builders in an effort to ease housing costs and backs a federal ban on price-gouging for groceries. Trump has said he would boost energy production to try to reduce overall inflation.

A key reason why inflation eased again in August was that gas prices tumbled by about 10 cents a gallon last month, according to the Energy Inflation Administration, to a national average of about $3.29.

Economists also expect the government’s measures of grocery prices and rents to rise more slowly. Though food prices are roughly 20% more expensive than before the pandemic, they have barely budged over the past year.

Another potential driver of slower inflation is that the cost of new apartment leases has started to cool as a stream of newly built apartments have been completed.

According to the real estate brokerage Redfin, the median rent for a new lease rose just 0.9% in August from a year earlier, to $1,645 a month. But the government’s measure includes all rents, including those for people who have been in their apartments for months or years. It takes time for the slowdown in new rents to show up in the government’s data. In July, rental costs rose 5.1% from a year ago, according to the government’s consumer price index.

Americans’ paychecks are also growing more slowly — an average of about 3.5% annually, still a solid pace — which reduces inflationary pressures. Two years ago, wage growth was topping 5%, a level that can force businesses to sharply raise prices to cover their higher labor costs.

In a high-profile speech last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation was coming under control and suggested that the job market was unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure.

Consumers have propelled the economy for the past three years. But they are increasingly turning to debt to maintain their spending and credit card, and auto delinquencies are rising, raising concerns that they may have to rein in their spending soon. Reduced consumer spending could lead more employers to freeze their hiring or even cut jobs.

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