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黄金价格为何屡破纪录?

美联社
2024-09-30

如果这种趋势持续下去,分析师们看好未来几个月的黄金价格。但未来永远无法预料。

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抢购黄金的热潮还在继续。

本周金价再创历史新高。贵金属近期的涨势主要归功于持续的经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势以及全球央行的强劲需求。

如果这种趋势持续下去,分析师们看好未来几个月的黄金价格。但未来永远无法预料。以下是您需要了解的信息。

今天黄金的价格是多少?

根据慧甚(FactSet)的数据,纽约现货黄金价格周二收盘价略高于每金衡盎司2657美元(金衡盎司是贵金属的计量标准,相当于31克),创下迄今为止的最高纪录。这将使一块重达400金衡盎司的金条或金砖如今价值超过106万美元。

本周的创纪录高点意味着,在过去一年里,每金衡盎司黄金的价格已经攀升了数百美元。周二的价格比一个月前上涨了近145美元,比2023年同期上涨了740美元以上。

分析师指出,今年迄今金价上涨了近30%,超过了标准普尔500指数自2024年初以来约20%的涨幅。

黄金价格为何上涨?

近期涨势背后有几大因素。

购买黄金的兴趣往往出现在不确定时期,例如,对通胀和美元走强的潜在担忧,导致一些人寻找其他地方投资。在疫情初期,黄金价格也出现了飙升。

今天的不确定因素包括地缘政治紧张局势,最近几天以色列对黎巴嫩发动的致命袭击使地缘政治紧张局势升级。加沙和乌克兰持续不断的战争继续加剧了全球对未来的担忧。

在美国等市场,就业市场的健康状况也尤其令人担忧。美联储上周降息50个基点的幅度超过往常,这标志着美联储开始关注就业数据的放缓,预计年底前还会有更多的降息举措。而且,这样的行动出现在动荡的选举年,这可能对未来的经济政策也至关重要。

FxPro高级市场分析师米歇尔·萨利比(Michel Saliby)解释说,在不久的将来,人们会考虑“任何经济动荡的情况”。“这就是为什么他们在投资组合中保留了相当一部分黄金作为‘避风港’。”

分析师们还指出,全球央行的需求强劲。世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)高级市场策略师乔·卡瓦托尼(Joe Cavatoni)上个月指出,央行的黄金需求远高于五年来的平均水平,这反映出“对通货膨胀和经济稳定的担忧加剧”。

萨利比补充称,中国近期旨在提振消费支出的刺激措施预计也将提振散户投资,从而进一步提振黄金的表现。

黄金值得投资吗?

黄金投资的倡导者称黄金为“避风港”,认为黄金可以实现投资组合的多样化和平衡,并降低未来可能出现的风险。一些人还认为,购买一些有形的、有可能随着时间推移而增值的东西会让人感到欣慰。

专家提醒不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。

萨利比指出,散户和机构投资者都不应受到“措施恐惧症”(FOMO)的影响。他解释说,人们不应仅仅因为看到别人大赚特赚,就拿自己所有的资金冒险。他建议投资者观察市场,并始终为自己的头寸制定明确的风险管理战略。

如果地缘政治紧张局势降温,萨利比预计金价将略有回调,可能下跌50-80美元左右。但他仍然看好近期的整体走势,预计黄金现货价格将很快超过此前预测的2025年的2700美元大关,如果这种趋势持续下去,金价可能会高达2800或2900美元。

不过,未来的收益永远无法保证,而且并非所有人都认为黄金是一项好的投资。批评人士说,黄金并不总是像许多人所说的那样,是对冲通胀的工具,还有更有效的方法来防止潜在的资本损失,比如通过衍生品投资。

美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trade Commission)此前也曾警告人们要警惕黄金投资。该委员会表示,贵金属的波动性很大,价格会随着需求的增加而上涨,这意味着“当经济焦虑或不稳定程度较高时,通常从贵金属中获利的是卖家”。

该委员会补充说,如果你选择投资黄金,重要的是让自己了解安全的交易方法,并警惕市场上潜在的骗局和假货。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

抢购黄金的热潮还在继续。

本周金价再创历史新高。贵金属近期的涨势主要归功于持续的经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势以及全球央行的强劲需求。

如果这种趋势持续下去,分析师们看好未来几个月的黄金价格。但未来永远无法预料。以下是您需要了解的信息。

今天黄金的价格是多少?

根据慧甚(FactSet)的数据,纽约现货黄金价格周二收盘价略高于每金衡盎司2657美元(金衡盎司是贵金属的计量标准,相当于31克),创下迄今为止的最高纪录。这将使一块重达400金衡盎司的金条或金砖如今价值超过106万美元。

本周的创纪录高点意味着,在过去一年里,每金衡盎司黄金的价格已经攀升了数百美元。周二的价格比一个月前上涨了近145美元,比2023年同期上涨了740美元以上。

分析师指出,今年迄今金价上涨了近30%,超过了标准普尔500指数自2024年初以来约20%的涨幅。

黄金价格为何上涨?

近期涨势背后有几大因素。

购买黄金的兴趣往往出现在不确定时期,例如,对通胀和美元走强的潜在担忧,导致一些人寻找其他地方投资。在疫情初期,黄金价格也出现了飙升。

今天的不确定因素包括地缘政治紧张局势,最近几天以色列对黎巴嫩发动的致命袭击使地缘政治紧张局势升级。加沙和乌克兰持续不断的战争继续加剧了全球对未来的担忧。

在美国等市场,就业市场的健康状况也尤其令人担忧。美联储上周降息50个基点的幅度超过往常,这标志着美联储开始关注就业数据的放缓,预计年底前还会有更多的降息举措。而且,这样的行动出现在动荡的选举年,这可能对未来的经济政策也至关重要。

FxPro高级市场分析师米歇尔·萨利比(Michel Saliby)解释说,在不久的将来,人们会考虑“任何经济动荡的情况”。“这就是为什么他们在投资组合中保留了相当一部分黄金作为‘避风港’。”

分析师们还指出,全球央行的需求强劲。世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)高级市场策略师乔·卡瓦托尼(Joe Cavatoni)上个月指出,央行的黄金需求远高于五年来的平均水平,这反映出“对通货膨胀和经济稳定的担忧加剧”。

萨利比补充称,中国近期旨在提振消费支出的刺激措施预计也将提振散户投资,从而进一步提振黄金的表现。

黄金值得投资吗?

黄金投资的倡导者称黄金为“避风港”,认为黄金可以实现投资组合的多样化和平衡,并降低未来可能出现的风险。一些人还认为,购买一些有形的、有可能随着时间推移而增值的东西会让人感到欣慰。

专家提醒不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。

萨利比指出,散户和机构投资者都不应受到“措施恐惧症”(FOMO)的影响。他解释说,人们不应仅仅因为看到别人大赚特赚,就拿自己所有的资金冒险。他建议投资者观察市场,并始终为自己的头寸制定明确的风险管理战略。

如果地缘政治紧张局势降温,萨利比预计金价将略有回调,可能下跌50-80美元左右。但他仍然看好近期的整体走势,预计黄金现货价格将很快超过此前预测的2025年的2700美元大关,如果这种趋势持续下去,金价可能会高达2800或2900美元。

不过,未来的收益永远无法保证,而且并非所有人都认为黄金是一项好的投资。批评人士说,黄金并不总是像许多人所说的那样,是对冲通胀的工具,还有更有效的方法来防止潜在的资本损失,比如通过衍生品投资。

美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trade Commission)此前也曾警告人们要警惕黄金投资。该委员会表示,贵金属的波动性很大,价格会随着需求的增加而上涨,这意味着“当经济焦虑或不稳定程度较高时,通常从贵金属中获利的是卖家”。

该委员会补充说,如果你选择投资黄金,重要的是让自己了解安全的交易方法,并警惕市场上潜在的骗局和假货。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

The rush for gold just keeps coming.

Gold hit another all time high this week. Recent gains for the precious metal are largely credited to ongoing economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and strong demand from central banks around the world.

If trends continue, analysts have bullish outlooks on the price of gold for the months ahead. But the future is never promised. Here’s what you need to know.

Where does the price of gold stand today?

The New York spot price of gold closed Tuesday at just over $2,657 per Troy ounce — the standard for measuring precious metals, which is equivalent to 31 grams — the highest recorded to date, per FactSet. That would make a gold bar or brick weighing 400 Troy ounces worth more than $1.06 million today.

This week’s record high means that the price of gold has climbed hundreds of dollars per Troy ounce over the last year. Tuesday’s price is up nearly $145 from a month ago and more than $740 from this time in 2023.

The price of gold is up nearly 30% year to date, analysts note — outpacing the benchmark S&P 500’s roughly 20% gain since the start of 2024.

Why is the price of gold going up?

There are a few factors behind the recent gains.

Interest in buying gold often comes at times of uncertainty — with potential concerns around inflation and the strength of the U.S. dollar, for example, causing some to look for alternative places to park their money. Gold also surged in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among sources of uncertainty today are geopolitical tensions — which escalated over recent days with Israel’s deadly strikes in Lebanon. And the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine have continued to fuel fears about the future worldwide.

In markets like the U.S., there’s also particular concern about the health of the job market. Last week’s larger-than-usual half-point cut by the Federal Reserve signals a new focus on slowing employment numbers, and more rate cuts are expected before the end of the year. And such action arrives in the midst of a tumultuous election year — which could prove crucial to economic policy in the road ahead, too.

In the near future, people are considering “any case of turbulence in the economy,” FxPro senior market analyst Michel Saliby explained. “This is why they’re keeping a decent portion of gold in their portfolio as a ‘safe haven.’”

Analysts also point to strong demand from central banks around the world. Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, noted last month that central bank demand was well-above the five year average — reflecting “heightened concern with inflation and economic stability.”

Recent stimulus measures in China aimed at boosting consumer spending are also expected to up retail investments, Saliby added, further boosting gold’s performance.

Is gold worth the investment?

Advocates of investing in gold call it a “safe haven,” arguing the commodity can serve to diversify and balance your investment portfolio, as well as mitigate possible risks down the road. Some also take comfort in buying something tangible that has the potential to increase in value over time.

Experts caution against putting all your eggs in one basket.

Both retail and institutional investors shouldn’t be influenced by the “FOMO effect,” or fear of missing out, Saliby notes — explaining that people should not risk all their money just because they are seeing others rake in gains. He advises investors to watch the market and always have a clear risk management strategy for their position.

If geopolitical tensions cool, Saliby expects the price of gold to correct slightly, perhaps falling around $50 to $80. But he remains bullish overall for the near future — expecting gold’s spot price to soon surpass the $2,700 mark previously predicted for 2025, and perhaps reach as high as $2,800 or $2,900 if trends continue.

Still, future gains are never promised and not everyone agrees gold is a good investment. Critics say gold isn’t always the inflation hedge many say it is — and that there are more efficient ways to protect against potential loss of capital, such as through derivative-based investments.

The Commodity Futures Trade Commission has also previously warned people to be wary of investing in gold. Precious metals can be highly volatile, the commission said, and prices rise as demand goes up — meaning “when economic anxiety or instability is high, the people who typically profit from precious metals are the sellers.”

If you do choose to invest in gold, the commission adds, it’s important to educate yourself on safe trading practices and be cautious of potential scams and counterfeits on the market.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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