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Blackwell需求强劲,英伟达股价走高

Blackwell芯片“已全面投产”,市场需求“非常疯狂”。

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英伟达(NVIDIA)首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)。图片来源:Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images

英伟达成功平息了投资者对产品延期和长期增长前景的担忧,股价开始反弹。

该股本月累计上涨近14%,其中周一上涨2.4%,创下自6月以来的首个收盘纪录,但仍低于盘中峰值。该股是今年标准普尔500指数中表现第二好的股票。

最近股价上涨是因为首席执行官黄仁勋表示,该公司的Blackwell芯片“已全面投产”,市场需求“非常疯狂”。此前,由于工程问题,Blackwell芯片推迟上市,众多评论引发了投资者对英伟达股票的抛售,但这部分跌幅目前已被抹去。此外,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师上周与管理层会面后发布的报告称,“未来一年左右的”Blackwell订单“已全部售罄”,“各种迹象表明,该公司的业务仍然强劲,未来前景向好”。

这些评论强化了这样一种观点,即英伟达仍是投资人工智能领域的首选股票,尤其是在大型科技公司仍致力于其人工智能计划的情况下。例如,根据彭博社汇总的分析师预测平均值,,微软(Microsoft Corp.)预计将在2025财年增加近三分之一的资本支出,达到约580亿美元。

马丁可利投资管理有限公司(Martin Currie Investment Management)的投资组合经理泽赫里德·奥斯马尼(Zehrid Osmani)表示:"一直有人质疑Blackwell生产延迟可能产生的影响,因此这些最新消息令人欣慰。”

除了对Blackwell的乐观情绪之外,台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)最近的销售额也显示出人工智能的强劲需求,而OpenAI在新一轮融资中的估值也达到了1570亿美元,该公司近期还发布了一个具有推理能力的人工智能模型,Alphabet Inc.也在研发这一模型。

Gabelli Funds的投资组合经理约翰·贝尔顿(John Belton)表示:"这些事件重新激发了人们对这一领域的兴趣,人们对基于推理的人工智能的用例感到非常兴奋。对于英伟达而言,推理是一个全新的领域,如果考虑到它的计算密集程度,这可能会成为巨大的新产品类别。”

贝尔顿将英伟达视为核心持股,并认为人工智能将为该公司带来“持续不断的稳定需求”。“这不是一只未被发现的股票,但如果它能实现预期的业绩,其估值仍然合理。”

根据彭博社收集的数据,分析师预计英伟达本财年的营收将增长一倍以上,并在下一财年再增长44%。过去一个季度,华尔街持续上调对英伟达收益和利润的预期。

英伟达强劲的增长前景抑制了估值,这为多头提供了持续买入的理由。该股市盈率高于37倍,较纳斯达克100指数有一定溢价,但低于其五年平均水平,也低于6月达到的逾44倍的峰值。

马丁可利投资管理有限公司的奥斯马尼说:"英伟达依然显得非常强大,它正处于一个非常有利的位置,能够抓住人工智能领域的机遇。”

期权市场也出现了积极的迹象。周四出现了一波买入看涨期权的热潮,这些期权允许持有者在3月份之前以每股150美元至189美元的价格买入逾3000万股。英伟达的股票周一报收于138.07美元。

相对于看跌期权,看涨期权的成本(称为偏斜)有所下降,这使得投资者押注其进一步上涨的成本更低。这些期权合约将在英伟达预计于2月底发布第四季度财报后到期。

路博迈(Neuberger Berman)董事总经理兼高级研究分析师丹·弗莱克斯(Dan Flax)说:“英伟达的股价将继续波动,订单情况也可能不稳定。但只要英伟达能够执行其产品路线图,就会推动健康增长,并保持股票的吸引力。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

英伟达成功平息了投资者对产品延期和长期增长前景的担忧,股价开始反弹。

该股本月累计上涨近14%,其中周一上涨2.4%,创下自6月以来的首个收盘纪录,但仍低于盘中峰值。该股是今年标准普尔500指数中表现第二好的股票。

最近股价上涨是因为首席执行官黄仁勋表示,该公司的Blackwell芯片“已全面投产”,市场需求“非常疯狂”。此前,由于工程问题,Blackwell芯片推迟上市,众多评论引发了投资者对英伟达股票的抛售,但这部分跌幅目前已被抹去。此外,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师上周与管理层会面后发布的报告称,“未来一年左右的”Blackwell订单“已全部售罄”,“各种迹象表明,该公司的业务仍然强劲,未来前景向好”。

这些评论强化了这样一种观点,即英伟达仍是投资人工智能领域的首选股票,尤其是在大型科技公司仍致力于其人工智能计划的情况下。例如,根据彭博社汇总的分析师预测平均值,,微软(Microsoft Corp.)预计将在2025财年增加近三分之一的资本支出,达到约580亿美元。

马丁可利投资管理有限公司(Martin Currie Investment Management)的投资组合经理泽赫里德·奥斯马尼(Zehrid Osmani)表示:"一直有人质疑Blackwell生产延迟可能产生的影响,因此这些最新消息令人欣慰。”

除了对Blackwell的乐观情绪之外,台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)最近的销售额也显示出人工智能的强劲需求,而OpenAI在新一轮融资中的估值也达到了1570亿美元,该公司近期还发布了一个具有推理能力的人工智能模型,Alphabet Inc.也在研发这一模型。

Gabelli Funds的投资组合经理约翰·贝尔顿(John Belton)表示:"这些事件重新激发了人们对这一领域的兴趣,人们对基于推理的人工智能的用例感到非常兴奋。对于英伟达而言,推理是一个全新的领域,如果考虑到它的计算密集程度,这可能会成为巨大的新产品类别。”

贝尔顿将英伟达视为核心持股,并认为人工智能将为该公司带来“持续不断的稳定需求”。“这不是一只未被发现的股票,但如果它能实现预期的业绩,其估值仍然合理。”

根据彭博社收集的数据,分析师预计英伟达本财年的营收将增长一倍以上,并在下一财年再增长44%。过去一个季度,华尔街持续上调对英伟达收益和利润的预期。

英伟达强劲的增长前景抑制了估值,这为多头提供了持续买入的理由。该股市盈率高于37倍,较纳斯达克100指数有一定溢价,但低于其五年平均水平,也低于6月达到的逾44倍的峰值。

马丁可利投资管理有限公司的奥斯马尼说:"英伟达依然显得非常强大,它正处于一个非常有利的位置,能够抓住人工智能领域的机遇。”

期权市场也出现了积极的迹象。周四出现了一波买入看涨期权的热潮,这些期权允许持有者在3月份之前以每股150美元至189美元的价格买入逾3000万股。英伟达的股票周一报收于138.07美元。

相对于看跌期权,看涨期权的成本(称为偏斜)有所下降,这使得投资者押注其进一步上涨的成本更低。这些期权合约将在英伟达预计于2月底发布第四季度财报后到期。

路博迈(Neuberger Berman)董事总经理兼高级研究分析师丹·弗莱克斯(Dan Flax)说:“英伟达的股价将继续波动,订单情况也可能不稳定。但只要英伟达能够执行其产品路线图,就会推动健康增长,并保持股票的吸引力。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Nvidia Corp.’s shares are roaring back after the company successfully calmed investor concerns about product delays and its long-term growth prospects.

The stock is up almost 14% this month, including a 2.4% gain on Monday that resulted in its first record close since June, though it remains below an intraday peak. It’s the second-best performer in the S&P 500 Index this year.

Recent strength came after CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia’s Blackwell chip “is in full production,” and that demand for it “is insane,” comments that came after Blackwell was delayed due to engineering snags, prompting a selloff that has now been erased. In addition, a report last week from Morgan Stanley analysts who met management said that Blackwell orders “are booked out 12 months or so,” with “every indication that business remains robust with very high forward visibility.”

The comments cement the view that Nvidia is still a favored way to invest in artificial intelligence, especially as major companies remain committed to their AI initiatives. Microsoft Corp., for example, is projected to boost capex spending by nearly a third in fiscal 2025 to about $58 billion, according to the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“There had been questions about the impact production delays could have, so these updates are reassuring,” said Zehrid Osmani, portfolio manager at Martin Currie Investment Management.

Beyond the Blackwell optimism, recent sales from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. showed strong AI demand, while a funding round for OpenAI resulted in a $157 billion valuation. OpenAI recently released an AI model with reasoning capabilities, something Alphabet Inc. is also working on.

These events “have driven a reinvigoration of interest in the space, and people are really getting excited about the use cases for reasoning-based AI,” said John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. “Reasoning represents a new area for Nvidia, and when you consider how compute-intensive it is, this could be a huge new product category.”

Belton views Nvidia as a core holding and sees AI offering “a steady drumbeat of demand” for years. “It’s not an undiscovered stock, but the valuation is still reasonable if it can deliver the numbers that are expected.”

Analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue to more than double in its current fiscal year, and rise another 44% the following one, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Street has continually raised estimates for Nvidia’s earnings and profit over the past quarter.

Nvidia’s strong growth prospects have kept its valuation in check, helping bulls support their case to keep buying. It trades above 37 times estimated earnings, which represents a premium to the Nasdaq 100 Index, but is below its five-year average and under a June peak of more than 44 times.

“Nvidia still looks formidable,” said Osmani, of Martin Currie. “It remains really well positioned to harness the AI opportunity.”

Signs of optimism have also been flashing in the options market. On Thursday, there was a wave of purchases in calls that allow holders to buy more than 30 million shares at levels from $150 to $189 through March. Nvidia closed at $138.07 on Monday.

The cost of calls relative to bearish put options — known as the skew — has fallen, making it cheaper to bet on a further rally. The contracts won’t expire until after Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings release, expected in late February.

“The stock will remain volatile and orders will be lumpy,” said Dan Flax, managing director and senior research analyst at Neuberger Berman. “But so long as Nvidia executes on its product road map, that will drive the kind of healthy growth that keeps the stock attractive.”

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