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从深受追捧到维权目标,美国西南航空如何迅速衰落?

Lila MacLellan
2024-10-29

股价较2021年跌去一半

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美国西南航空公司(Southwest Airlines)首席执行官鲍勃·乔丹(Bob Jordan)遭遇了恶劣天气和冬季风暴埃利奥特。图片来源:Bob Jordan:Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg-Getty Images, Southwest airplane:Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto-Getty Images; Clouds; Jason Hosking-Getty Images

这场风暴的时机再糟糕不过了。

2022年12月下旬,一场“温带气旋”席卷了美国三分之二的地区,包括整个东海岸和加拿大的部分地区,带来了各种极端的冬季天气。风寒警告、乳白天空和极端降雪给数百万人的出行带来了困难。

“冬季风暴埃利奥特”(非正式名称)不可避免地导致航班取消,给大多数航空公司造成了一天的混乱。但对于西南航空及其过时的机组调度软件来说,这场混乱持续了超过72小时,该公司取消了超过1.6万架次的航班。一些人(数目不详)被迫在机场过夜或与陌生人临时驾车旅行,以挽回假期。这场崩溃如此严重,以至于被《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)调侃。

该公司最终恢复了正常运营,直到今年,另一个埃利奥特(Elliott,一家激进的对冲基金)发起的一连串攻击引发了一场引人注目的清算和重大的领导层变动。

这场危机让西南航空的忠实乘客感到不安,该航空的乘客数量庞大。在过去的50年里,这家总部位于德克萨斯州的航空公司凭借仅提供经济舱的航班、免费行李托运和改签服务,以及经常自嘲式的幽默,成功塑造了广受欢迎的品牌形象。空乘人员以在安全提示中穿插喜剧段子和“爸爸笑话”而著称。

但一些投资者表示,随着行业运营成本的上升,西南航空的基本运营模式已不再适应当前的市场环境。自疫情爆发以来,西南航空的财务表现落后于竞争对手,其股价较2021年下跌了50%。

激进对冲基金埃利奥特管理公司(Elliott Management,持有这家市值180亿美元的航空公司11%的股份)看到了扭亏为盈的机会,于今年早些时候发起了一场激进的运动,要求罢免首席执行官鲍勃·乔丹、董事长兼前首席执行官加里·凯利(Gary Kelly),并更换一半的董事会成员。埃利奥特管理公司表示,该公司的领导层固守现有的运营和定价模式,未能做出必要的改变以增加收入。该对冲基金在开场白中表示:“西南航空固守几十年前的运营模式,限制了其在现代航空业中的竞争力。”

双方上周达成协议,避免了代理权之争。西南航空同意增补六名新董事会成员,其中五名是埃利奥特管理公司提名的人选,包括维珍航空(Virgin America)和西捷航空(西捷航空)的前首席执行官。董事会还增加了雪佛龙(Chevron)前首席财务官皮埃尔·布雷伯(Pierre Breber)。作为和解协议的一部分,领导西南航空长达18年的凯利将比原计划提前退休。但在公司工作了30年、于2022年出任首席执行官的乔丹将继续留任。

西南航空和埃利奥特管理公司拒绝置评。

就在不久前,西南航空公司发生这样的激进主义事件还是不可想象的。从初创公司成长为美国四大航空公司之一(与美国航空公司(American Airlines)、达美航空公司(Delta Air Lines)和联合航空公司(United Airlines)并列),西南航空的非凡发展历程使其成为商学院的热门案例研究对象。在疫情爆发之前,西南航空连续47年保持盈利。这是任何国内或国际航空公司都无法比拟的成就。事实上,在过去的半个世纪里,西南航空在美国的三大主要竞争对手都至少经历过一次破产。

麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院(MIT Sloan School of Management)商业实践教授、《适者的复兴:为什么实力雄厚公司会衰败,以及杰出管理者如何重塑它们》(Revival of the Fittest: Why Good Companies Go Bad and How Great Managers Can Remake Them)一书的作者唐纳德·苏尔(Donald Sull)说,西南航空之所以能够崛起,得益于其独特的特质——平等的座位安排和反对额外收费的立场,但这些曾经助其成功的特色,反而成为负担。

多年来一直关注西南航空的苏尔对《财富》杂志表示,该航空公司目前的危机让人联想到百视达(Blockbuster)和康柏(Compaq)等公司。简而言之,西南航空一直试图通过加大对现有策略的投入来应对商业环境的变化。

他补充说:“商业史上充斥着因积极惰性而沦为牺牲品的企业遗骸。”

无附加服务,低费用

50多年前,赫布·凯莱赫(Herbert Kelleher)与他人共同创立了西南航空公司,最初这是一家只在德克萨斯州内城市间提供服务的本地低成本航空公司。随着航空公司的发展壮大,它采取了与竞争对手截然不同的航空旅行方式。除了提供无附加服务、低费用的体验外,西南航空还采用了点对点的航线系统,让乘客无需转机即可在城市间飞行,而不必像枢纽-辐射式模式那样在另一个城市转机。西南航空只使用单一机型,即波音737,以实现标准化运营。最为人所知的是,这家初创公司曾实施开放式座位安排,并在2007年之前一直遵循先到先得的登机政策。

随着时间的推移,凯莱赫不仅因其幽默感而为人所知,也因其出色的商业才能而声名鹊起。在1994年的一篇人物简介中,《财富》杂志称他为“航空业的幽默大师,笑话界的大祭司,曾在公众场合装扮成猫王和复活节兔子的人,通过表达对香烟、波旁威士忌酒和下流故事的喜爱而塑造出滑稽公众形象的人”。但他同样是一位受人尊敬的战略家。凯莱赫于2019年去世后,管理大师罗杰·马丁(Roger Martin)向这位创始人致敬道,凯莱赫是为数不多的认识到“通往非凡成就的唯一途径就是做出与众不同的选择”的人之一。

当时,这些选择几十年来一直行之有效。除了在“9-11事件”之后因安全要求加强而对座位政策做了微调外,其他方面基本保持不变。研究公司晨星(Morningstar)的航空业分析师尼古拉斯·欧文斯(Nicolas Owens)告诉《财富》杂志,2015年至2019年对美国航空业来说是一段极其繁荣的时期,这一时期的特征是需求强劲和盈利能力高。欧文斯指出,低油价是当时的主要利好因素,原因是当油价高企时,航空公司通常会将燃油成本转嫁给乘客,而当燃油成本下降时,航空公司会降低机票价格。

但疫情和飞机临时停飞使这一时期戛然而止。欧文斯说:“新冠肺炎的爆发彻底扰乱了整个行业。飞机停飞,乘客也不再选择航空出行等等。”

疫情一度导致航空公司估值直线下降。但随着疫情缓解,航空公司开始重新恢复运营,另一项变化随之而来。消费者的偏好发生了转变,更多美国人选择乘坐国际航班或在高端服务上进行报复性消费,而美国城市间的当日商务旅行次数则有所减少。

欧文斯解释说,航空公司还没有做好应对需求激增的准备。光是寻找飞行员就是一项挑战;许多没有被强制休假的人已经退休了。然而,除了西南航空之外,美国的其他大型航空公司都已做好满足大众新需求的准备,它们拥有合适的旅行网络和产品,以充分利用人们被压抑的需求——巴黎度假或东京探险。在疫情爆发之前,它们通过合并扩大了运力,并为自己提供了许多应对市场变化的手段。例如,它们可以销售至少三种级别的乘客服务,以及机场贵宾室通道。它们可以向乘客收取额外的腿部舒展空间或更快登机特权的费用。凭借国际航线或航空公司合作伙伴关系,它们已经准备好为环球旅行者、度假者、短途商务旅客以及其他任何人提供服务。欧文斯说:“总体而言,航空公司的财务业绩非常强劲,与2019年相比,其收入创下了历史新高(即使航班减少了)。”

Sanford C. Bernstein的分析师大卫·弗农(David Vernon)表示,西南航空的竞争对手也推出了基本经济舱服务,侵蚀了西南航空的“无附加服务”策略,并"在现有网络中增加了更多座位,从而涌入了对价格敏感的旅客市场”。简而言之,各大航空公司在票价细分策略方面进行了创新,而西南航空却没有。

他补充说:“埃利奥特管理公司对西南航空的批评是合乎情理的,它们指出西南航空的体验没有太大变化。”

由于消费者偏好的转变以及面向预算旅行者的竞争加剧,再加上劳动力和燃料成本上升等因素,西南航空在后疫情时代的环境中一直举步维艰。今年,波音(Boeing)自身的困境以及生产放缓的预期也对该公司造成了影响,迫使其削减运力。

冬季风暴埃利奥特也带来了沉重打击,如果公司优先更新其机组人员调度系统,这一打击本可以避免。该软件无法在航班取消后自动重新分配机组人员,而是需要工作人员手动查找和安排机组人员。当取消的航班相对较少时,这个问题还可以解决,但当取消的航班数以千计时,这就成了后勤的噩梦。在一份内部报告中,该公司还指出,“关键机场缺乏足够的冬季基础设施和设备”是造成这场危机的根本原因。

首席执行官乔丹为此次混乱局面道歉,他在一段视频中说:“我们知道,即使是最深切的歉意,对于客户、员工以及所有受到这次中断影响的人来说,也是远远不够的。”该航空公司承诺要向乘客退款,后来为此支付了6亿美元的费用。

文化盲目性

2022年的崩溃不仅让西南航空遭受了美国交通部1.4亿美元的重罚,也让其品牌暂时蒙上了污点。乔治敦大学麦克多诺商学院(Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business)兼职教授、美国航空公司前高管罗布·布里顿(Rob Britton)表示,这一事件严重暴露了西南航空文化的封闭性问题。

如同苏尔所指出的,西南航空的领导层塑造并推动了一种文化,这种文化过度依赖于公司过去的成功经验,未能将创新置于首位。在他看来,这导致西南航空在技术方面投资不足。布里顿说,即使在全盛时期,该公司也过于满足于自己的战略,例如,它拒绝了华尔街提出的收取行李托运费的建议,而其他航空公司在过去十多年里已经广泛采用这一策略。相比之下,美国航空和联合航空去年的行李托运费收入分别达到了10亿美元。(西南航空最近公布的一项客户调查显示,如果收取行李托运费,根据不再乘坐西南航空的消费者数量计算,该公司每年将损失3亿美元。)

布里顿强调,企业必须持续审视其根深蒂固的做法,区分哪些行之有效,哪些是进一步增长的障碍。如果西南航空放弃一些为客户降低成本的标志性政策,也许就能更好地应对成本上升压力。

布里顿说,公平地说,“这个行业趋于封闭。”航空公司的领导者通常不愿意聘用来自汽车或消费品行业的领导者,因为他们认为航空业的复杂性是外来者难以理解的。“西南航空就是这种封闭性的极端例子,”他继续说道,并指出该公司致力于内部晋升,长期以来一直不愿与其他航空公司建立联盟。

但苏尔告诫说,不要把西南航空的高管描绘成傲慢、自满或缺乏远见的人。他表示:"当一家公司在固守承诺的同时,还要努力适应不断变化的环境,情况就不一定是那样了。”高管们已经见证了自己独特的系统行之有效,并且多年来一直沉浸在相同的企业文化中,这使得他们很难想象出替代方案。

做出改变

根据苏尔的研究,为了摆脱“积极惰性”,公司确实需要进行重大变革,但这并不意味着必须聘请外来的首席执行官。相反,他们应该寻找“面向外部的内部”领导者,或者那些既拥有公司制度知识,又能够保持一定距离感,从而看清公司所面临困境的高管。例如,这样的领导者可能负责国际业务或非核心部门。苏尔说,想想通用电气(GE)的杰克·韦尔奇(Jack Welch)吧,他在接手通用电气之前负责公司的塑料业务。

Sanford C. Bernstein的分析师弗农认为,西南航空的领导层并非像一些人所认为的那样逃避现实,以至于希望事情能够恢复原样——即更多人选择乘坐廉价、高频的短途航班。

他说:“我认为市场变化迅速,他们不确定这种变化是否是永久的。”

在埃利奥特管理公司推动的变革中,乔丹得以留任,这并不令分析师感到意外。就在上个月,这位首席执行官透露了增加座位腿部舒展空间和指定座位的计划,该公司表示,在埃利奥特管理公司开始推动变革之前就已经在进行调整了。上个月,西南航空还与冰岛航空(Icelandair)建立了首个合作伙伴关系。该公司已经表示,它也看到了变革的必要性,并已同意凯利离职。

欧文斯说,西南航空面临的下一个重大挑战是深入细致了解其客户群。但他提醒说,劳动力成本和其他问题仍然影响着竞争激烈的航空业。

他补充说:"我认为任何一家航空公司都无法真正主宰自己的经济命运。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

这场风暴的时机再糟糕不过了。

2022年12月下旬,一场“温带气旋”席卷了美国三分之二的地区,包括整个东海岸和加拿大的部分地区,带来了各种极端的冬季天气。风寒警告、乳白天空和极端降雪给数百万人的出行带来了困难。

“冬季风暴埃利奥特”(非正式名称)不可避免地导致航班取消,给大多数航空公司造成了一天的混乱。但对于西南航空及其过时的机组调度软件来说,这场混乱持续了超过72小时,该公司取消了超过1.6万架次的航班。一些人(数目不详)被迫在机场过夜或与陌生人临时驾车旅行,以挽回假期。这场崩溃如此严重,以至于被《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)调侃。

该公司最终恢复了正常运营,直到今年,另一个埃利奥特(Elliott,一家激进的对冲基金)发起的一连串攻击引发了一场引人注目的清算和重大的领导层变动。

这场危机让西南航空的忠实乘客感到不安,该航空的乘客数量庞大。在过去的50年里,这家总部位于德克萨斯州的航空公司凭借仅提供经济舱的航班、免费行李托运和改签服务,以及经常自嘲式的幽默,成功塑造了广受欢迎的品牌形象。空乘人员以在安全提示中穿插喜剧段子和“爸爸笑话”而著称。

但一些投资者表示,随着行业运营成本的上升,西南航空的基本运营模式已不再适应当前的市场环境。自疫情爆发以来,西南航空的财务表现落后于竞争对手,其股价较2021年下跌了50%。

激进对冲基金埃利奥特管理公司(Elliott Management,持有这家市值180亿美元的航空公司11%的股份)看到了扭亏为盈的机会,于今年早些时候发起了一场激进的运动,要求罢免首席执行官鲍勃·乔丹、董事长兼前首席执行官加里·凯利(Gary Kelly),并更换一半的董事会成员。埃利奥特管理公司表示,该公司的领导层固守现有的运营和定价模式,未能做出必要的改变以增加收入。该对冲基金在开场白中表示:“西南航空固守几十年前的运营模式,限制了其在现代航空业中的竞争力。”

双方上周达成协议,避免了代理权之争。西南航空同意增补六名新董事会成员,其中五名是埃利奥特管理公司提名的人选,包括维珍航空(Virgin America)和西捷航空(西捷航空)的前首席执行官。董事会还增加了雪佛龙(Chevron)前首席财务官皮埃尔·布雷伯(Pierre Breber)。作为和解协议的一部分,领导西南航空长达18年的凯利将比原计划提前退休。但在公司工作了30年、于2022年出任首席执行官的乔丹将继续留任。

西南航空和埃利奥特管理公司拒绝置评。

就在不久前,西南航空公司发生这样的激进主义事件还是不可想象的。从初创公司成长为美国四大航空公司之一(与美国航空公司(American Airlines)、达美航空公司(Delta Air Lines)和联合航空公司(United Airlines)并列),西南航空的非凡发展历程使其成为商学院的热门案例研究对象。在疫情爆发之前,西南航空连续47年保持盈利。这是任何国内或国际航空公司都无法比拟的成就。事实上,在过去的半个世纪里,西南航空在美国的三大主要竞争对手都至少经历过一次破产。

麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院(MIT Sloan School of Management)商业实践教授、《适者的复兴:为什么实力雄厚公司会衰败,以及杰出管理者如何重塑它们》(Revival of the Fittest: Why Good Companies Go Bad and How Great Managers Can Remake Them)一书的作者唐纳德·苏尔(Donald Sull)说,西南航空之所以能够崛起,得益于其独特的特质——平等的座位安排和反对额外收费的立场,但这些曾经助其成功的特色,反而成为负担。

多年来一直关注西南航空的苏尔对《财富》杂志表示,该航空公司目前的危机让人联想到百视达(Blockbuster)和康柏(Compaq)等公司。简而言之,西南航空一直试图通过加大对现有策略的投入来应对商业环境的变化。

他补充说:“商业史上充斥着因积极惰性而沦为牺牲品的企业遗骸。”

无附加服务,低费用

50多年前,赫布·凯莱赫(Herbert Kelleher)与他人共同创立了西南航空公司,最初这是一家只在德克萨斯州内城市间提供服务的本地低成本航空公司。随着航空公司的发展壮大,它采取了与竞争对手截然不同的航空旅行方式。除了提供无附加服务、低费用的体验外,西南航空还采用了点对点的航线系统,让乘客无需转机即可在城市间飞行,而不必像枢纽-辐射式模式那样在另一个城市转机。西南航空只使用单一机型,即波音737,以实现标准化运营。最为人所知的是,这家初创公司曾实施开放式座位安排,并在2007年之前一直遵循先到先得的登机政策。

随着时间的推移,凯莱赫不仅因其幽默感而为人所知,也因其出色的商业才能而声名鹊起。在1994年的一篇人物简介中,《财富》杂志称他为“航空业的幽默大师,笑话界的大祭司,曾在公众场合装扮成猫王和复活节兔子的人,通过表达对香烟、波旁威士忌酒和下流故事的喜爱而塑造出滑稽公众形象的人”。但他同样是一位受人尊敬的战略家。凯莱赫于2019年去世后,管理大师罗杰·马丁(Roger Martin)向这位创始人致敬道,凯莱赫是为数不多的认识到“通往非凡成就的唯一途径就是做出与众不同的选择”的人之一。

当时,这些选择几十年来一直行之有效。除了在“9-11事件”之后因安全要求加强而对座位政策做了微调外,其他方面基本保持不变。研究公司晨星(Morningstar)的航空业分析师尼古拉斯·欧文斯(Nicolas Owens)告诉《财富》杂志,2015年至2019年对美国航空业来说是一段极其繁荣的时期,这一时期的特征是需求强劲和盈利能力高。欧文斯指出,低油价是当时的主要利好因素,原因是当油价高企时,航空公司通常会将燃油成本转嫁给乘客,而当燃油成本下降时,航空公司会降低机票价格。

但疫情和飞机临时停飞使这一时期戛然而止。欧文斯说:“新冠肺炎的爆发彻底扰乱了整个行业。飞机停飞,乘客也不再选择航空出行等等。”

疫情一度导致航空公司估值直线下降。但随着疫情缓解,航空公司开始重新恢复运营,另一项变化随之而来。消费者的偏好发生了转变,更多美国人选择乘坐国际航班或在高端服务上进行报复性消费,而美国城市间的当日商务旅行次数则有所减少。

欧文斯解释说,航空公司还没有做好应对需求激增的准备。光是寻找飞行员就是一项挑战;许多没有被强制休假的人已经退休了。然而,除了西南航空之外,美国的其他大型航空公司都已做好满足大众新需求的准备,它们拥有合适的旅行网络和产品,以充分利用人们被压抑的需求——巴黎度假或东京探险。在疫情爆发之前,它们通过合并扩大了运力,并为自己提供了许多应对市场变化的手段。例如,它们可以销售至少三种级别的乘客服务,以及机场贵宾室通道。它们可以向乘客收取额外的腿部舒展空间或更快登机特权的费用。凭借国际航线或航空公司合作伙伴关系,它们已经准备好为环球旅行者、度假者、短途商务旅客以及其他任何人提供服务。欧文斯说:“总体而言,航空公司的财务业绩非常强劲,与2019年相比,其收入创下了历史新高(即使航班减少了)。”

Sanford C. Bernstein的分析师大卫·弗农(David Vernon)表示,西南航空的竞争对手也推出了基本经济舱服务,侵蚀了西南航空的“无附加服务”策略,并"在现有网络中增加了更多座位,从而涌入了对价格敏感的旅客市场”。简而言之,各大航空公司在票价细分策略方面进行了创新,而西南航空却没有。

他补充说:“埃利奥特管理公司对西南航空的批评是合乎情理的,它们指出西南航空的体验没有太大变化。”

由于消费者偏好的转变以及面向预算旅行者的竞争加剧,再加上劳动力和燃料成本上升等因素,西南航空在后疫情时代的环境中一直举步维艰。今年,波音(Boeing)自身的困境以及生产放缓的预期也对该公司造成了影响,迫使其削减运力。

冬季风暴埃利奥特也带来了沉重打击,如果公司优先更新其机组人员调度系统,这一打击本可以避免。该软件无法在航班取消后自动重新分配机组人员,而是需要工作人员手动查找和安排机组人员。当取消的航班相对较少时,这个问题还可以解决,但当取消的航班数以千计时,这就成了后勤的噩梦。在一份内部报告中,该公司还指出,“关键机场缺乏足够的冬季基础设施和设备”是造成这场危机的根本原因。

首席执行官乔丹为此次混乱局面道歉,他在一段视频中说:“我们知道,即使是最深切的歉意,对于客户、员工以及所有受到这次中断影响的人来说,也是远远不够的。”该航空公司承诺要向乘客退款,后来为此支付了6亿美元的费用。

文化盲目性

2022年的崩溃不仅让西南航空遭受了美国交通部1.4亿美元的重罚,也让其品牌暂时蒙上了污点。乔治敦大学麦克多诺商学院(Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business)兼职教授、美国航空公司前高管罗布·布里顿(Rob Britton)表示,这一事件严重暴露了西南航空文化的封闭性问题。

如同苏尔所指出的,西南航空的领导层塑造并推动了一种文化,这种文化过度依赖于公司过去的成功经验,未能将创新置于首位。在他看来,这导致西南航空在技术方面投资不足。布里顿说,即使在全盛时期,该公司也过于满足于自己的战略,例如,它拒绝了华尔街提出的收取行李托运费的建议,而其他航空公司在过去十多年里已经广泛采用这一策略。相比之下,美国航空和联合航空去年的行李托运费收入分别达到了10亿美元。(西南航空最近公布的一项客户调查显示,如果收取行李托运费,根据不再乘坐西南航空的消费者数量计算,该公司每年将损失3亿美元。)

布里顿强调,企业必须持续审视其根深蒂固的做法,区分哪些行之有效,哪些是进一步增长的障碍。如果西南航空放弃一些为客户降低成本的标志性政策,也许就能更好地应对成本上升压力。

布里顿说,公平地说,“这个行业趋于封闭。”航空公司的领导者通常不愿意聘用来自汽车或消费品行业的领导者,因为他们认为航空业的复杂性是外来者难以理解的。“西南航空就是这种封闭性的极端例子,”他继续说道,并指出该公司致力于内部晋升,长期以来一直不愿与其他航空公司建立联盟。

但苏尔告诫说,不要把西南航空的高管描绘成傲慢、自满或缺乏远见的人。他表示:"当一家公司在固守承诺的同时,还要努力适应不断变化的环境,情况就不一定是那样了。”高管们已经见证了自己独特的系统行之有效,并且多年来一直沉浸在相同的企业文化中,这使得他们很难想象出替代方案。

做出改变

根据苏尔的研究,为了摆脱“积极惰性”,公司确实需要进行重大变革,但这并不意味着必须聘请外来的首席执行官。相反,他们应该寻找“面向外部的内部”领导者,或者那些既拥有公司制度知识,又能够保持一定距离感,从而看清公司所面临困境的高管。例如,这样的领导者可能负责国际业务或非核心部门。苏尔说,想想通用电气(GE)的杰克·韦尔奇(Jack Welch)吧,他在接手通用电气之前负责公司的塑料业务。

Sanford C. Bernstein的分析师弗农认为,西南航空的领导层并非像一些人所认为的那样逃避现实,以至于希望事情能够恢复原样——即更多人选择乘坐廉价、高频的短途航班。

他说:“我认为市场变化迅速,他们不确定这种变化是否是永久的。”

在埃利奥特管理公司推动的变革中,乔丹得以留任,这并不令分析师感到意外。就在上个月,这位首席执行官透露了增加座位腿部舒展空间和指定座位的计划,该公司表示,在埃利奥特管理公司开始推动变革之前就已经在进行调整了。上个月,西南航空还与冰岛航空(Icelandair)建立了首个合作伙伴关系。该公司已经表示,它也看到了变革的必要性,并已同意凯利离职。

欧文斯说,西南航空面临的下一个重大挑战是深入细致了解其客户群。但他提醒说,劳动力成本和其他问题仍然影响着竞争激烈的航空业。

他补充说:"我认为任何一家航空公司都无法真正主宰自己的经济命运。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Bob Jordan:Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg-Getty Images, Southwest airplane:Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto-Getty Images; Clouds; Jason Hosking-Getty Images

The storm’s timing couldn’t have been worse.

In late December of 2022, an “extratropical cyclone” brought all manner of menacing winter conditions to two-thirds of the U.S., including the entire Eastern Seaboard and parts of Canada. Wind-chill warnings, whiteouts, and extraordinary snowfall complicated travel for millions.

Flight cancellations from what was unofficially dubbed Winter Storm Elliott were inevitable, creating chaos at most airlines for a day. But for Southwest Airlines and its outdated crew-scheduling software, the madness dragged on for over 72 hours as the carrier canceled more than 16,000 flights. An undisclosed number of people were forced to sleep in airports or improvise road trips with strangers to salvage their holidays. The meltdown was so bad that Southwest was pilloried by Saturday Night Live.

The company eventually got back to business as usual, until this year, when a barrage of attacks from another Elliott—this one an activist hedge fund—led to a high-profile reckoning and major leadership shakeup.

The battle alarmed Southwest’s loyal flyers, who are legion. Over 50 years, the Texas-based company has built a cult-favorite brand on a combination of economy-class-only flights, free bag checks and flight changes, and often self-deprecating humor. Flight attendants are known for bookending their safety procedure announcements with comedy bits and dad jokes.

But some investors say Southwest’s foundational practices haven’t aged well as industry operating costs have risen. Since the pandemic, Southwest has lagged competitors in financial performance, and its share price is down 50% compared to 2021.

Seeing a turnaround opportunity, Elliott Management, an activist hedge fund with an 11% stake in the $18 billion airline, launched an aggressive campaign earlier this year to push out CEO Bob Jordan, as well as chairman and former CEO Gary Kelly, and replace half of Southwest’s board. Elliott asserted that the company’s leadership is too entrenched in the airline’s existing operating and pricing model to make changes to boost revenue. “Southwest’s rigid commitment to a decades-old approach has inhibited its ability to compete in the modern airline industry,” the hedge fund said in its opening salvo.

The two sides reached an agreement this week, averting a proxy battle. Southwest agreed to take on six new board members, five of whom were Elliott nominees, including former CEOs from Virgin America and WestJet. The board also added former Chevron CFO Pierre Breber. Kelly, who had led Southwest for 18 years, will now retire earlier than previously planned as part of the truce. But Jordan, a 30-year company veteran who became CEO in 2022, will hold on to his job.

Southwest Airlines and Elliott Management declined to comment.

Not long ago, such activist drama at Southwest would have been unthinkable. The airline’s remarkable growth story from startup to a top-four U.S. airline—along with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines—made it a business-school case-study favorite. And before the pandemic, Southwest was profitable for 47 straight years. No other domestic or global airline can claim the same profitability streak. In fact, all three of Southwest’s main U.S. competitors have gone bankrupt at least once in the past half-century.

But the same unique traits that made Southwest soar—its egalitarian seating and anti-fee stance—have paradoxically weighed it down, says Donald Sull, an MIT Sloan School of Management professor of business practice and author of Revival of the Fittest: Why Good Companies Go Bad and How Great Managers Can Remake Them.

Sull, who has followed Southwest’s story for years, tells Fortune that the airline’s current crisis is reminiscent of companies like Blockbuster and Compaq. In short, Southwest has been responding to changes in the business landscape by doubling down on its existing strategy.

“Business history is littered with the corpses of companies that have fallen prey to active inertia,” he adds.

No frills and few fees

Herbert Kelleher cofounded Southwest more than 50 years ago as a local, low-cost airline serving Texan cities. As the airline grew, it took a radically different approach to air travel than its competitors. In addition to creating a no-frills, few-fees experience, Southwest adopted a point-to-point routing system, allowing passengers to fly between cities without transferring, rather than the hub-and-spoke model, which requires fliers to stop over in another city. Southwest also used only one type of plane, a Boeing 737, to standardize operations. And most famously, the startup embraced an open seating plan and, until 2007, a first-come, first serve policy.

Over time, Kelleher became known as much for his business prowess as his sense of humor. In a 1994 profile, Fortune called him “the airline industry’s jokemeister, the High Priest of Ha-Ha, a man who has appeared in public dressed as Elvis and the Easter Bunny, who has carved an antic public persona out of his affection for cigarettes, bourbon, and bawdy stories.” But he was revered as a strategist too. After Kelleher died in 2019, management guru Roger Martin paid tribute to the founder, writing that he was one of a few who understood that “the only path to distinctive results is with distinctive choices.”

At the time, those choices had been working for decades. There was little deviation, aside from a tweak to its seating policy following increased security requirements after 9/11. And 2015 to 2019 was a particularly heady time for the U.S. airline industry in general, characterized by strong demand and profitability, Nicolas Owens, airline analyst at research firm Morningstar, tells Fortune. Low oil prices were the key tailwinds at the time, Owens argues, since airlines tend to pass on fuel costs to passengers when oil is expensive, and chop ticket prices when fuel costs drop.

But the pandemic and temporary plane groundings brought an abrupt halt to this period. “COVID comes along and totally disrupts the industry,” says Owens. “Planes aren't flying, people aren't flying, etc etera.”

The pandemic briefly sent airline valuations into a free fall. But another change came as the pandemic eased and airlines began ramping up again. Customer preferences shifted, and more Americans chose to fly internationally or revenge-spend on premium services, while taking fewer same-day business trips between U.S. cities.

The airlines weren’t ready for the surge in demand, Owens explains. Just finding pilots was challenging; many of those who hadn’t been furloughed had retired. However, other than Southwest, the large U.S. airlines were prepared to meet the flying public’s new inclinations, having the right travel networks and products in place to take advantage of pent-up demand for Paris getaways or adventures in Tokyo. Before the pandemic, they had built up their capacity through mergers, and given themselves many levers to pull to respond to the marketplace. For example, they had three or more levels of passenger service to sell, along with airport lounge access. They could charge passengers for extra leg room or faster boarding privileges. With their international routes or airline partnerships, they were prepared to serve globe-trotters, vacationers, short-haul business travelers, and anyone else. “You had really strong financial results in general, where you had airlines reporting record revenue compared to 2019,” even with fewer flights, Owens says.

Southwest’s competitors have also been introducing basic economy seats, cutting into its no-frills strategy and “flooding the price-conscious-traveler space with additional seats within their existing networks,” says David Vernon, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein. In short, major airlines have been innovative with their fare-segmentation strategies in a way that Southwest has not.

“The Elliott criticism that the Southwest experience hasn't changed much is fair,” he adds.

As a result of the shift in consumer tastes and increased competition for budget travelers, not to mention higher labor and fuel costs, Southwest has been struggling in the post-pandemic environment. This year, Boeing’s own struggles and its expectation of slower production also impacted the company, which was forced to cut its capacity.

Winter Storm Elliott was also a blow, and one that could have been avoided had the company prioritized an update of its crew-scheduling system. The software had no way of automatically reassigning crews to planes following cancellations, and instead required staffers to manually find and schedule crew members. That was a manageable issue when relatively few flights were canceled, but a logistical nightmare when it came to thousands. In an internal report, the company also identified “insufficient winter infrastructure and equipment in key airport locations” as a root cause of the crisis.

CEO Jordan apologized for the chaos, saying in a video message that “we know even our deepest apologies—to our customers, to our employees, and to all affected through this disruption—only go so far.” The airline vowed to refund customers, later spending $600 million to do so.

A cultural blindness

The 2022 meltdown left Southwest with a $140 million fine from the Department of Transportation and temporarily stained the brand. It was also a damning sign of Southwest’s cultural insularity, according to Rob Britton, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business and a former American Airlines executive.

Like Sull, he argues that Southwest leaders created and presided over a culture that relied too heavily on past success, and failed to prioritize innovation. To his mind, that’s what led to its failure to invest adequately in technology. Even in its heyday, the company was too satisfied with its own strategies, for example rejecting Wall Street suggestions that it charge for bags as other airlines have done for more than a decade, says Britton. For context, American and United earned $1 billion each in bag fees last year. (Southwest recently shared customer research showing the airline would lose $300 million annually if it charged for bags, based on the number of consumers who would stop flying Southwest.)

Companies ought to be constantly reviewing which entrenched practices are working and which are holding them back from even greater growth, Britton says. Had Southwest dropped some of its trademark policies that keep costs down for customers, it may have been better prepared to weather rising costs.

To be fair, says Britton, “the industry tends toward insularity.” Airline leaders are often reluctant to hire leaders from the automotive or consumer-goods categories since they believe that airlines are just too complex for outsiders to understand. “Southwest is an extreme version of that insularity,” he continues, pointing to the company’s commitment to promoting from within and longtime aversion to establishing alliances with other airlines.

But Sull cautions against painting Southwest executives as arrogant, complacent, or not forward-looking. “None of that has to be true for a company to struggle to adapt to changing circumstances when its commitments have hardened,” he says. Executives who have seen their unique system work and have been breathing the same air for years struggle to envision alternatives.

Making changes

To escape “active inertia,” according to Sull’s research, companies do need to make drastic changes, but not necessarily by embracing an outsider CEO. Instead, they should look to insider-outside leaders, or executives from the company who have institutional knowledge but also enough distance to see the company’s predicament. That person might run an international business, for example, or a non-core division. Think Jack Welch at GE, who ran the company’s plastics business before taking over, says Sull.

Vernon, the Bernstein analyst, suggests that Southwest’s leadership might not have been burying their heads in the sand as much as “hoping that things would go back to the way they were”—that is, with more people taking cheap, high-frequency, short-haul flights.

“I think the market changed really quickly,” he says, “and they weren’t sure if the change was permanent.”

That Jordan was spared in the changes driven by Elliott did not surprise analysts. Just last month, the CEO revealed plans for seats with more legroom and assigned seats, adjustments the company said were in the works before Elliott began agitating for change. Last month, Southwest also launched its first airline partnership, linking with Icelandair. The company had signaled that it, too, saw the need for change, and had already agreed to Kelly’s departure.

Southwest’s next big challenge is developing a granular understanding of its customer segments, Owens says. But he cautions that labor costs and other issues are still working their way through the highly competitive airline industry.

“I don't think any given airline is really in control of its economic destiny,” he adds.

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