随着交易员们将数亿美元投入总统选举投注市场,美国领先的预测平台Kalshi推出了加密货币存款功能,用户可以使用稳定币USDC(而不是现金)来为他们的投注注资。这一举措旨在与最大的竞争对手、离岸公司Polymarket竞争。
从今天起,Kalshi用户将能够使用USDC(一种与美元挂钩的流行加密货币)为自己的账户充值。此举将使Kalshi的用户能够以更快的速度和更低的成本转移资金,同时也帮助Kalshi挑战基于加密货币的平台Polymarket,后者在2024年的选举周期中人气爆棚。
投注比赛
允许用户对选举结果进行投注的政治预测平台已经存在了数十年,但在2024年大选期间,它们才成为公众关注的焦点,这主要归功于Polymarket。该网站最近聘请了民意调查专家纳特·西尔弗(Nate Silver)担任顾问,其总统选举赌注市场吸引了大量交易和媒体报道。根据Polymarket的网站,用户在总统竞选(唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)对卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)赌注上的交易额已达26亿美元,而Kalshi表示,该网站在总统竞选上的投注额不到8500万美元。
交易量出现差异的部分原因在于Kalshi市场的成立时间较短。Kalshi由塔里克·曼苏尔(Tarek Mansour)和卢安娜·洛佩斯·拉拉(Luana Lopes Lara)在2018年创立,并在2020年首次获得美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的批准,推出了天气等合约的非政治性投注市场。Kalshi在去年起诉该机构,以获得推出政治合约的许可。9月初,在地方法院胜诉后,Kalshi于10月初推出了包括总统竞选在内的政治相关赌注。
相比之下,Polymarket在未经美国商品期货交易委员会许可的情况下推出了政治预测市场,从而触犯了该委员会的相关规定,于2022年初被处以140万美元的罚款,并被迫将平台迁往美国境外。事实证明,缺乏监管受到了用户欢迎,而且用户因原生加密货币设计而涌向该平台——Polymarket与客户的加密货币钱包相连,并用USDC结算赌注。区块链设计也使该平台受到审查,包括在Polymarket证实押注特朗普胜选的四个主要账户由一名法国交易员控制后,有人指责该平台存在操纵行为。
在10月初接受《财富》杂志采访时,曼苏尔表示,他最初考虑在区块链技术上构建Kalshi,但出于监管方面的考量,最终放弃了这一想法。他说:“如若想吸引机构参与,我们并没有发现可行的商业模式。”不过,他认为,对于用户而言,使用USDC存款将比依赖自动清算中心(ACH)和银行转账更快捷,同时也意味着费用更低。
Kalshi正在与加密货币公司Zero Hash合作,以支持USDC存款,该公司表示,与银行转账可能需要三到四天的时间相比,用户将能够实现几乎即时的全年全天候资金流动。Zero Hash负责管理这项新功能的转换和合规性。
虽然Kalshi在交易量上仍落后于Polymarket,但曼苏尔表示,其受监管的特性将更受用户欢迎,尤其是在Polymarket被禁止向美国交易者开放的情况下。Kalshi得到了包括风险投资巨头红杉资本(Sequoia)在内的投资机构的支持,而Polymarket则得到了Founders Fund的支持,该基金的合伙人之一是彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)。Robinhood周一也向部分美国客户推出了政治赌博市场。
随着选举日的日益临近,与哈里斯相比,特朗普在Kalshi客户中的支持率已遥遥领先,从10月10日的几乎平局上升至截至稿时62%的胜选几率。传统民意调查机构仍预测此次大选结果像抛硬币一样胜负难料。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
随着交易员们将数亿美元投入总统选举投注市场,美国领先的预测平台Kalshi推出了加密货币存款功能,用户可以使用稳定币USDC(而不是现金)来为他们的投注注资。这一举措旨在与最大的竞争对手、离岸公司Polymarket竞争。
从今天起,Kalshi用户将能够使用USDC(一种与美元挂钩的流行加密货币)为自己的账户充值。此举将使Kalshi的用户能够以更快的速度和更低的成本转移资金,同时也帮助Kalshi挑战基于加密货币的平台Polymarket,后者在2024年的选举周期中人气爆棚。
投注比赛
允许用户对选举结果进行投注的政治预测平台已经存在了数十年,但在2024年大选期间,它们才成为公众关注的焦点,这主要归功于Polymarket。该网站最近聘请了民意调查专家纳特·西尔弗(Nate Silver)担任顾问,其总统选举赌注市场吸引了大量交易和媒体报道。根据Polymarket的网站,用户在总统竞选(唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)对卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)赌注上的交易额已达26亿美元,而Kalshi表示,该网站在总统竞选上的投注额不到8500万美元。
交易量出现差异的部分原因在于Kalshi市场的成立时间较短。Kalshi由塔里克·曼苏尔(Tarek Mansour)和卢安娜·洛佩斯·拉拉(Luana Lopes Lara)在2018年创立,并在2020年首次获得美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的批准,推出了天气等合约的非政治性投注市场。Kalshi在去年起诉该机构,以获得推出政治合约的许可。9月初,在地方法院胜诉后,Kalshi于10月初推出了包括总统竞选在内的政治相关赌注。
相比之下,Polymarket在未经美国商品期货交易委员会许可的情况下推出了政治预测市场,从而触犯了该委员会的相关规定,于2022年初被处以140万美元的罚款,并被迫将平台迁往美国境外。事实证明,缺乏监管受到了用户欢迎,而且用户因原生加密货币设计而涌向该平台——Polymarket与客户的加密货币钱包相连,并用USDC结算赌注。区块链设计也使该平台受到审查,包括在Polymarket证实押注特朗普胜选的四个主要账户由一名法国交易员控制后,有人指责该平台存在操纵行为。
在10月初接受《财富》杂志采访时,曼苏尔表示,他最初考虑在区块链技术上构建Kalshi,但出于监管方面的考量,最终放弃了这一想法。他说:“如若想吸引机构参与,我们并没有发现可行的商业模式。”不过,他认为,对于用户而言,使用USDC存款将比依赖自动清算中心(ACH)和银行转账更快捷,同时也意味着费用更低。
Kalshi正在与加密货币公司Zero Hash合作,以支持USDC存款,该公司表示,与银行转账可能需要三到四天的时间相比,用户将能够实现几乎即时的全年全天候资金流动。Zero Hash负责管理这项新功能的转换和合规性。
虽然Kalshi在交易量上仍落后于Polymarket,但曼苏尔表示,其受监管的特性将更受用户欢迎,尤其是在Polymarket被禁止向美国交易者开放的情况下。Kalshi得到了包括风险投资巨头红杉资本(Sequoia)在内的投资机构的支持,而Polymarket则得到了Founders Fund的支持,该基金的合伙人之一是彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)。Robinhood周一也向部分美国客户推出了政治赌博市场。
随着选举日的日益临近,与哈里斯相比,特朗普在Kalshi客户中的支持率已遥遥领先,从10月10日的几乎平局上升至截至稿时62%的胜选几率。传统民意调查机构仍预测此次大选结果像抛硬币一样胜负难料。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
As traders pour hundreds of millions of dollars into presidential betting markets, the leading U.S. prediction platform Kalshi is launching crypto deposits—where users can fund their bets in the form of the stablecoin USDC rather than cash—in a bid to compete with its top rival, the offshore company Polymarket.
Starting today, Kalshi users will be able to load their accounts with USDC, a popular cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar. This move will allow Kalshi customers to move money faster and cheaper and help Kalshi challenge Polymarket’s crypto-powered platform, which has exploded in popularity during the 2024 election cycle.
Betting race
Political prediction platforms, which allow users to gamble on the outcomes of electoral contests, have existed for decades, but have come into the spotlight in the 2024 election, largely owing to Polymarket. The site, which recently hired polling guru Nate Silver as an advisor, has attracted heavy trading—and media coverage—related to its presidential betting market. According to Polymarket’s website, users have traded $2.6 billion worth of volume on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected, while Kalshi says it has brought in just under $85 million in bets on the presidential race.
Part of the trading discrepancy is the result of Kalshi’s market being much newer. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi first won approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch nonpolitical betting markets in 2020 on contracts like the weather before suing the agency last year to launch political contracts as well. After winning its lawsuit at the district court level in early September, Kalshi launched politics-related bets in early October, including for the presidential race.
In contrast, Polymarket ran afoul of the CFTC by launching political prediction markets without the agency’s permission, earning a $1.4 million penalty in early 2022 and forcing the platform to move outside the U.S. Its lack of regulation has proved popular with users, who have also flocked to the platform because of its crypto-native design—Polymarket connects with customers’ crypto wallets and settles bets with USDC. Its blockchain design has also opened the platform up to scrutiny, including accusations of manipulation after Polymarket confirmed that four of the leading accounts betting on Trump are controlled by a single French trader.
In an interview with Fortune earlier in October, Mansour said that he originally explored building Kalshi on top of blockchain technology, but ultimately decided against it for regulatory reasons. “We didn’t really see a viable business that way for us if you want to attract institutional participation,” he said. He argued that USDC deposits, however, would be faster for users than relying on ACH (Automated Clearing House) and bank transfers, and would also mean lower fees.
Kalshi is working with the crypto firm Zero Hash to enable USDC deposits, which the company says will enable near-instant 24/7/365 funding, as opposed to bank transfers, which can take three to four days. Zero Hash is managing the conversion and compliance aspects of the new feature.
While Kalshi still lags behind Polymarket in trading volume, Mansour said that its regulated approach will prove more popular among users, especially with Polymarket cut off to U.S. traders. Kalshi is backed by investors including the VC giant Sequoia, while Polymarket is backed by Founders Fund, which counts Peter Thiel as a partner. Robinhood also launched political gambling markets to select U.S. customers on Monday.
With Election Day fast approaching, Trump has separated from Harris to a commanding lead among Kalshi customers, rising from a near deadlock on Oct. 10 to a 62% chance of winning as of publication. Traditional pollsters are still forecasting the election as a coin flip.