不到一周前,民调数据还对唐纳德·特朗普有利,因此在预测市场上,特朗普似乎是非常稳妥的选择,但现在情况有所变化。
距离大选日还有两天,在政治预测网站PredictIt上,如今哈里斯领先,押注哈里斯胜选的合约上周日的价格为54美分,在上周二和一周前分别为46美分和42美分。目前押注特朗普胜选的合约价格为51美分,低于上周二的60美分。
据预测机构Kalshi的数据显示,上周日,特朗普的胜选概率为51%,哈里斯的胜选概率为49%。相比之下,上周二,特朗普的胜选概率为64.6%,而哈里斯的胜选概率只有35.4%。
同样,上周日,盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)的最新IBKR Forecast Trader预测特朗普的胜选概率为54%,较上周二的68%大幅下降。哈里斯在上周日的胜选概率为54%,当天下降到48%,均高于上周二的37%。
哈里斯在IBKR上的胜选概率大幅提高,以至于盈透证券创始人兼董事长托马斯·彼得菲在上周五发表了一份声明,对此事进行了评论。
他表示:“昨天晚上,在IBKR的ForecastTrader平台上,哈里斯的胜选概率出现令人惊讶的强劲反弹。”他表示,一天内8个百分点的涨幅,得到了约4,000万美元交易量的支持。
尽管对预测市场的怀疑论者警告,这些市场容易受到操控,但彼得菲表示,操纵预测市场是犯罪行为,而且即使人为操纵也无法让哈里斯在IBKR上的胜选概率突然反弹。相反,彼得菲将其归因于新闻报道。
西北大学(Northwestern University)数据科学家托马斯·米勒认为,转折点出现在特朗普近日在麦迪逊花园广场的集会上。当时,喜剧演员托尼·欣奇克利夫称波多黎各是“漂浮在海上的垃圾岛”,引发了整整一周的大规模抗议。
他最近对《财富》杂志表示,自那次集会以来,特朗普的选情经历了历史性的崩溃,这可能导致哈里斯胜选。
《得梅因纪事报》/Mediacom雇佣谢尔泽公司(Selzer & Co.)在上周六进行的爱荷华州民调倍受关注,这份民调同样支持哈里斯的选情前景。民调结果显示,在可能投票的选民中,哈里斯以47%的胜选概率,领先于特朗普的44%。
这与9月份的情况相反。当时的民调结果显示,特朗普领先哈里斯4个百分点,这可能意味着哈里斯在爱荷华州以及威斯康辛州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州等关键摇摆州的支持率正在上升。
上周日上午,《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院(Siena College)对战场州的民调显示,两人的选情胶着,但到最后时刻再做出决定的选民更倾向于支持哈里斯。
在最近出现变化之前的一个月,特朗普大部分时间的民调数据始终领先,而且超过7,000万选民已经投票。
538的最新民调结果分析显示,特朗普的胜选概率为53%,而哈里斯的胜选概率为47%,与一周前相同。
盈透证券高级经济学家荷西·特雷斯在上周五的一份报告中写道,IBKR预测模型依旧略微倾向于共和党会横扫白宫、参议院和众议院。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
不到一周前,民调数据还对唐纳德·特朗普有利,因此在预测市场上,特朗普似乎是非常稳妥的选择,但现在情况有所变化。
距离大选日还有两天,在政治预测网站PredictIt上,如今哈里斯领先,押注哈里斯胜选的合约上周日的价格为54美分,在上周二和一周前分别为46美分和42美分。目前押注特朗普胜选的合约价格为51美分,低于上周二的60美分。
据预测机构Kalshi的数据显示,上周日,特朗普的胜选概率为51%,哈里斯的胜选概率为49%。相比之下,上周二,特朗普的胜选概率为64.6%,而哈里斯的胜选概率只有35.4%。
同样,上周日,盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)的最新IBKR Forecast Trader预测特朗普的胜选概率为54%,较上周二的68%大幅下降。哈里斯在上周日的胜选概率为54%,当天下降到48%,均高于上周二的37%。
哈里斯在IBKR上的胜选概率大幅提高,以至于盈透证券创始人兼董事长托马斯·彼得菲在上周五发表了一份声明,对此事进行了评论。
他表示:“昨天晚上,在IBKR的ForecastTrader平台上,哈里斯的胜选概率出现令人惊讶的强劲反弹。”他表示,一天内8个百分点的涨幅,得到了约4,000万美元交易量的支持。
尽管对预测市场的怀疑论者警告,这些市场容易受到操控,但彼得菲表示,操纵预测市场是犯罪行为,而且即使人为操纵也无法让哈里斯在IBKR上的胜选概率突然反弹。相反,彼得菲将其归因于新闻报道。
西北大学(Northwestern University)数据科学家托马斯·米勒认为,转折点出现在特朗普近日在麦迪逊花园广场的集会上。当时,喜剧演员托尼·欣奇克利夫称波多黎各是“漂浮在海上的垃圾岛”,引发了整整一周的大规模抗议。
他最近对《财富》杂志表示,自那次集会以来,特朗普的选情经历了历史性的崩溃,这可能导致哈里斯胜选。
《得梅因纪事报》/Mediacom雇佣谢尔泽公司(Selzer & Co.)在上周六进行的爱荷华州民调倍受关注,这份民调同样支持哈里斯的选情前景。民调结果显示,在可能投票的选民中,哈里斯以47%的胜选概率,领先于特朗普的44%。
这与9月份的情况相反。当时的民调结果显示,特朗普领先哈里斯4个百分点,这可能意味着哈里斯在爱荷华州以及威斯康辛州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州等关键摇摆州的支持率正在上升。
上周日上午,《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院(Siena College)对战场州的民调显示,两人的选情胶着,但到最后时刻再做出决定的选民更倾向于支持哈里斯。
在最近出现变化之前的一个月,特朗普大部分时间的民调数据始终领先,而且超过7,000万选民已经投票。
538的最新民调结果分析显示,特朗普的胜选概率为53%,而哈里斯的胜选概率为47%,与一周前相同。
盈透证券高级经济学家荷西·特雷斯在上周五的一份报告中写道,IBKR预测模型依旧略微倾向于共和党会横扫白宫、参议院和众议院。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Less than a week ago, Donald Trump looked like a safe bet on prediction markets as polling data continued to shift in his favor, but not anymore.
With just two more days until Election Day, PredictIt now has Kamala Harris in the lead, with a contract that has her winning priced at 54 cents on Sunday, up from 46 cents on Tuesday and 42 cents a week ago. Trump’s winning contract is now priced at 51 cents, down from 60 cents on Tuesday.
According to Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning were at 51% on Sunday with Harris at 49%. That’s down sharply from Tuesday, when Trump was as high as 64.6% and Harris was as low as 35.4%.
Similarly, the new IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers put Trump’s odds at 54% on Sunday, down from 68% on Tuesday. Harris jumped as high as 54% on Sunday before easing to 48% later in the day—both up from 37% on Tuesday.
The Harris surge was so dramatic on IBKR that Thomas Peterffy, the founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, put out a statement on Friday commenting on it.
“Last night, Kamala Harris engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback on IBKR’s ForecastTrader platform,” he said, noting that an 8-point surge in one day was backed by trading volume of about $40 million.
While skeptics of prediction markets have warned that they are vulnerable to manipulation, he said doing so is a crime and is unlikely to have caused the sudden improvement in Harris’s odds on IBKR. Instead, Peterffy attributed it to reporting on news events.
According to Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, a turning point came last Sunday during Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden. That’s when comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean,” sparking a massive backlash that continued throughout the week.
He told Fortune recently that since the rally, Trump has been suffering an historic collapse that could result in Harris winning the election.
Also bolstering Harris’s prospects was Saturday’s closely watched Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. that showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
That’s flipped from September, when the poll showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris, and could signal growing support for Harris elsewhere in the region, like the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
And on Sunday morning, the New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground states showed that the race is still close but with last-minute deciders breaking toward Harris.
Still, the recent twists come after a month of largely positive polling data for Trump while more than 70 million voters have already cast their ballots.
The latest polling analysis from 538 gives Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Harris, which is the same as a week ago.
And José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note on Friday that a Republican sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives is still narrowly favored in the IBKR forecasting model.