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特朗普当选总统后,华尔街看好企业并购带来的套利机会

Paolo Confino
2024-11-11

华尔街预计,在特朗普第二任期的领导下,企业并购活动将迎来多重利好。

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分析人士预测,随着特朗普政府即将就任,并购市场近期的低迷交易态势有望得到扭转。

在经历了数年交易活动减少和交易受阻之后,观察人士认为特朗普的第二个任期将带来大量新交易机会。特朗普在竞选时提出了对企业友好的议程,承诺全面放松监管。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯汀(David Kostin)在上周三发布的一份分析报告中写道:“在过去四年里,美国联邦贸易委员会(Federal Trade Commission)和司法部反垄断局(Department of Justice Antitrust Division)对许多企业的合并提案提出了质疑,但在新一届政府的领导下,这种监管态势可能会趋向宽松。”

根据同一份报告,高盛预计2025年的并购活动将增加20%。在过去几年中,并购活动大幅减少。高盛预计,2024年的并购活动将较上年下降15%。

拜登(Joe Biden)政府以企业合并会损害消费者利益为由,对其采取了更为强硬的立场。在联邦贸易委员会主席莉娜·汗(Lina Khan)和司法部反垄断局助理总检察长乔纳森·坎特(Jonathan Kanter)的领导下,监管机构一直在探索新的评估标准,以评估是否批准某些合并案。坎特和汗不再像过去那样只关注潜在交易是否会导致消费者价格上涨,而是考虑两家公司合并对其所在行业的整体影响。实质上,他们更为细致地审查了潜在合并对供应商和竞争对手的负面影响。

现在,随着特朗普即将开始第二个任期,这种审查预计将会消失——过去两天的股市动态反映了这一现实。

在特朗普击败副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)赢得大选后的第二天,预计会进行并购交易的几家公司的股票因市场预期这些交易可能顺利完成而出现上涨。

拥有奢侈品牌蔻驰(Coach)和凯特·丝蓓(Kate Spade)的泰佩思琦(Tapestry Inc)股价在两天内上涨了5.5%,原因是市场预期该公司与迈克高仕(Michael Kors)的所有者Capri Holdings的合并有望获得监管部门的批准。Capri股价自上周二收盘以来上涨了10%。在航空板块中,Frontier和Spirit的股价分别上涨了11%和15%,原因是市场认为这两家公司之前被搁置的合并交易现在有可能获得批准。

美国最大的两家食品杂货连锁公司克罗格(Kroger)和艾伯森(Albertsons)的合并交易也似乎更有可能进行了。在联邦贸易委员会起诉阻止这两家食品杂货连锁公司合并后,该交易目前已被法庭搁置。自上周二特朗普赢得总统大选的可能性变得明朗后,克罗格和艾伯森的股价均有所上涨。

这些股票的上涨被市场解读为投资者相信并购活动将顺利进行的迹象。预期的政策宽松是并购交易的关键因素之一,因为这会给企业领导人留下了他们的交易有望最终完成的印象。

科斯汀在报告中写道:“首席执行官信心是影响高管参与并购活动意愿的关键变量。”

高盛表示,尽管监管环境有所改善,但估值仍处于高位。不过,这可能会影响交易的性质,而不是交易的总体数量。高盛预计,由于估值较高,交易将以股权作为主要考量因素,而非现金。

韦德布什证券公司(Wedbush)科技分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示,随着特朗普执政期间并购交易升温,他预计私营科技公司的“估值傲慢症”将有所缓解。艾夫斯在上周三的一份分析报告中写道:“随着特朗普重返白宫,科技领域的并购活动和整体交易活动的浪潮即将到来。”

但并购交易是一个复杂的过程,不仅仅受监管机构政策立场的影响。因此,不能仅凭这些因素就断定会催生大量新的并购交易。

BCA Research首席策略师达瓦尔·乔希(Dhaval Joshi)对《财富》表示:“在我看来,并购活动高度依赖于股市水平,因为股市能够增强任何股价较高的公司的购买力,尤其是目前的超高市值行业领军企业。”

值得注意的是,并非所有并购交易都涉及上市公司。在科技行业尤其如此,初创公司的创始人更倾向于被大型公司收购。在拜登执政期间,一些这类交易也引起了监管机构的注意。2022年7月,美国联邦贸易委员会提起诉讼,要求阻止Meta收购创作虚拟现实健身内容的初创公司Within,理由是联邦贸易委员会认为该公司希望“通过收购来达到领先地位”,而不是直接参与竞争。

风险投资公司SignalFire的首席执行官克里斯·法默(Chris Farmer)表示,特朗普政府不会采取这种做法。他说,这将允许“现有企业收购新兴的初创公司竞争对手,从而为一小部分创始人和风险投资人带来价值数十亿美元的退出机会”。

另一方面,法默承认,过度放松监管也有一定的弊端,这可能会“减少消费者的选择范围,并将那些未被收购的初创企业排除在有效竞争之外”。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

分析人士预测,随着特朗普政府即将就任,并购市场近期的低迷交易态势有望得到扭转。

在经历了数年交易活动减少和交易受阻之后,观察人士认为特朗普的第二个任期将带来大量新交易机会。特朗普在竞选时提出了对企业友好的议程,承诺全面放松监管。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯汀(David Kostin)在上周三发布的一份分析报告中写道:“在过去四年里,美国联邦贸易委员会(Federal Trade Commission)和司法部反垄断局(Department of Justice Antitrust Division)对许多企业的合并提案提出了质疑,但在新一届政府的领导下,这种监管态势可能会趋向宽松。”

根据同一份报告,高盛预计2025年的并购活动将增加20%。在过去几年中,并购活动大幅减少。高盛预计,2024年的并购活动将较上年下降15%。

拜登(Joe Biden)政府以企业合并会损害消费者利益为由,对其采取了更为强硬的立场。在联邦贸易委员会主席莉娜·汗(Lina Khan)和司法部反垄断局助理总检察长乔纳森·坎特(Jonathan Kanter)的领导下,监管机构一直在探索新的评估标准,以评估是否批准某些合并案。坎特和汗不再像过去那样只关注潜在交易是否会导致消费者价格上涨,而是考虑两家公司合并对其所在行业的整体影响。实质上,他们更为细致地审查了潜在合并对供应商和竞争对手的负面影响。

现在,随着特朗普即将开始第二个任期,这种审查预计将会消失——过去两天的股市动态反映了这一现实。

在特朗普击败副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)赢得大选后的第二天,预计会进行并购交易的几家公司的股票因市场预期这些交易可能顺利完成而出现上涨。

拥有奢侈品牌蔻驰(Coach)和凯特·丝蓓(Kate Spade)的泰佩思琦(Tapestry Inc)股价在两天内上涨了5.5%,原因是市场预期该公司与迈克高仕(Michael Kors)的所有者Capri Holdings的合并有望获得监管部门的批准。Capri股价自上周二收盘以来上涨了10%。在航空板块中,Frontier和Spirit的股价分别上涨了11%和15%,原因是市场认为这两家公司之前被搁置的合并交易现在有可能获得批准。

美国最大的两家食品杂货连锁公司克罗格(Kroger)和艾伯森(Albertsons)的合并交易也似乎更有可能进行了。在联邦贸易委员会起诉阻止这两家食品杂货连锁公司合并后,该交易目前已被法庭搁置。自上周二特朗普赢得总统大选的可能性变得明朗后,克罗格和艾伯森的股价均有所上涨。

这些股票的上涨被市场解读为投资者相信并购活动将顺利进行的迹象。预期的政策宽松是并购交易的关键因素之一,因为这会给企业领导人留下了他们的交易有望最终完成的印象。

科斯汀在报告中写道:“首席执行官信心是影响高管参与并购活动意愿的关键变量。”

高盛表示,尽管监管环境有所改善,但估值仍处于高位。不过,这可能会影响交易的性质,而不是交易的总体数量。高盛预计,由于估值较高,交易将以股权作为主要考量因素,而非现金。

韦德布什证券公司(Wedbush)科技分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示,随着特朗普执政期间并购交易升温,他预计私营科技公司的“估值傲慢症”将有所缓解。艾夫斯在上周三的一份分析报告中写道:“随着特朗普重返白宫,科技领域的并购活动和整体交易活动的浪潮即将到来。”

但并购交易是一个复杂的过程,不仅仅受监管机构政策立场的影响。因此,不能仅凭这些因素就断定会催生大量新的并购交易。

BCA Research首席策略师达瓦尔·乔希(Dhaval Joshi)对《财富》表示:“在我看来,并购活动高度依赖于股市水平,因为股市能够增强任何股价较高的公司的购买力,尤其是目前的超高市值行业领军企业。”

值得注意的是,并非所有并购交易都涉及上市公司。在科技行业尤其如此,初创公司的创始人更倾向于被大型公司收购。在拜登执政期间,一些这类交易也引起了监管机构的注意。2022年7月,美国联邦贸易委员会提起诉讼,要求阻止Meta收购创作虚拟现实健身内容的初创公司Within,理由是联邦贸易委员会认为该公司希望“通过收购来达到领先地位”,而不是直接参与竞争。

风险投资公司SignalFire的首席执行官克里斯·法默(Chris Farmer)表示,特朗普政府不会采取这种做法。他说,这将允许“现有企业收购新兴的初创公司竞争对手,从而为一小部分创始人和风险投资人带来价值数十亿美元的退出机会”。

另一方面,法默承认,过度放松监管也有一定的弊端,这可能会“减少消费者的选择范围,并将那些未被收购的初创企业排除在有效竞争之外”。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Analysts expect the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump will turn around the recent dealmaking slump in the M&A market.

After several years of reduced activity and blocked deals, watchers believe Trump’s second term in office will lead to a flurry of new deals. Trump campaigned on a business-friendly agenda that promised ample deregulation.

“The regulatory posture of the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice Antitrust Division that during the past four years challenged many proposed business combinations will likely be more relaxed under the incoming administration,” Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin wrote in an analyst note published Wednesday.

Goldman Sachs projects a 20% increase in M&A activity in 2025, according to the same note. Over the last couple of years, M&A activity had fallen significantly. Goldman estimates in 2024 it dropped 15% compared to the year prior.

President Joe Biden’s administration had been much harsher on mergers on the grounds that corporate consolidation would hurt consumers. Under FTC chair Lina Khan and assistant attorney general for the DOJ’s antitrust division Jonathan Kanter, regulators have been testing new parameters to evaluate whether they would approve certain mergers. Rather than look exclusively at whether a prospective deal would raise consumer prices, as was done in the past, Kanter and Khan considered the overall power two merged companies might wield on their industry. In essence, they more closely scrutinized a possible merger’s negative impact on suppliers and competitors as well.

Now, with Trump set to return to office for a second term, that scrutiny is expected to dissipate—a reality that was reflected in the stock market over the last two days.

The day after Trump’s election win over Vice President Kamala Harris, the stocks of several companies expected to pursue M&A deals rose on the expectation they might be completed.

Tapestry Inc, which owns luxury brands Coach and Kate Spade, saw its share price rise 5.5% over two days on the expectation that its merger with Capri Holdings, owner of Michael Kors, would get regulatory approval. Capri stock was up 10% since Tuesday’s close. In the airline sector, Frontier and Spirit both saw their stocks rise 11% and 15%, respectively, on the view that their previously scuttled merger might now be allowed.

The merger of Kroger and Albertsons, the two largest grocery chains in the country, also seems more likely now. That deal is currently tied up in court after the FTC sued to stop the two grocery chains from merging. Both Kroger and Albertsons stocks were up since Tuesday when it became apparent Trump would win the presidency.

The rallies in those stocks were taken as an indication that investors believe M&A activity will indeed go through. An expected lighter touch is a critical factor in M&A because it gives business leaders the impression their deals will indeed close.

“CEO confidence is a key variable affecting executives’ inclination to engage in M&A activity,” Kostin wrote in his note.

That said, even with a more favorable regulatory regime, valuations remain high, according to Goldman, though that would likely affect the nature of the deals themselves rather than their overall number. Goldman expects that because of high valuations, deals will feature share considerations over cash.

Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives said he expected “valuation hubris” to come down among privately held tech firms as M&A dealmaking heats up under Trump. “A tidal wave of tech M&A and overall deal activity could now be on the horizon with Trump in the White House,” Ives wrote in an analyst note Wednesday.

But M&A deals are complex processes that depend on more than just regulators’ policy views. There’s no guarantee those alone will lead to a spate of new deals.

“In my view, M&A activity is highly dependent on the level of the stock market, as this boosts the purchasing power of any corporation with a high stock price, and especially the current mega-cap superstars,” BCA Research chief strategist Dhaval Joshi told Fortune.

Notably, not all M&A deals are between public companies. That is especially true in the tech industry, where startup founders often look to get acquired by bigger players. Under the Biden administration, some of these types of deals also drew the attention of regulators. In July 2022, the FTC sued to stop Meta’s acquisition of the startup Within, which makes virtual-reality fitness content, on the grounds it wanted to “buy its way to the top” rather than compete outright.

The Trump administration wouldn’t take such an approach, according to Chris Farmer, CEO of VC firm SignalFire. It would allow “incumbents to acquire upcoming startup competitors, which could unlock more billion-dollar exits for a limited set of founders and venture capitalists,” he said.

On the other hand, Farmer acknowledged there are certain downsides to too much deregulation, which could “give consumers less choice and box out unacquired startups from viably competing.”

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