前美国中央情报局(CIA)局长、前国防部长莱昂·帕内塔认为,当选总统特朗普的经济议程,包括减税和广泛的放松监管等,可能导致已经高企的国家债务进一步上升。
帕内塔在《财富》全球论坛上的访谈中表示:“这些措施将带来相当强劲的经济。但一个负面的重要影响是,美国的借款可能会飙升。我认为,美国的国家债务可能会增加7万亿美元。”
帕内塔似乎引用了中立预算监督机构负责任联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)10月份的一项分析。该分析预测,如果特朗普的政策成功实施,美国的国家负债将增加7.75万亿美元。特朗普竞选时主张大幅减税,并提议对所有进入美国的商品征收全面关税。
然而,帕内塔表示,特朗普一些非正统经济政策对本已强劲的美国经济的确切影响仍不确定。他表示:“美国的经济状况良好,但显然[特朗普]对美国经济构成了真正的冲击。”
帕内塔不仅是国家安全专家,还是政府预算方面的专家。在比尔·克林顿执政时期,帕内塔曾担任管理和预算办公室(Office of Management and Budget)主任和白宫幕僚长。在此之前,帕内塔是加利福尼亚州的国会议员,并担任众议院预算委员会(House Budget Committee)主席。
尽管帕内塔支持特朗普经济议程的大方向,如放松监管和减税,但他也有保留意见。他特别关注的是美国将被迫为不断增加的国家债务支付利息。根据国会预算办公室3月份的分析,预计今年美国国家债务的利息支付将达到8,700亿美元,超过8,220亿美元的年度国防预算。
帕内塔表示,利息支付“将继续增加,[这将]对利率造成压力。这在很大程度上会对全球产生影响,因为随着美元的升值——我认为美元会持续升值——这将给全球经济带来更大的压力。”
由于美元是国际贸易的首选货币,美元强势地位的变化可能会在全球范围内产生连锁反应。随着美元走强,相对于其他货币,用美元借款的还债成本会增加,并推高全球商品的成本。这可能对美国有利,但会给其他国家,特别是新兴市场国家,造成经济状况紧张。
截至7月,特朗普认为美元过于强势。他曾对彭博社表示,美国存在一个“严重的货币问题”。
帕内塔指出,特朗普在准备入主白宫时面临的难题是,他的许多政策预计会使美元升值。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
前美国中央情报局(CIA)局长、前国防部长莱昂·帕内塔认为,当选总统特朗普的经济议程,包括减税和广泛的放松监管等,可能导致已经高企的国家债务进一步上升。
帕内塔在《财富》全球论坛上的访谈中表示:“这些措施将带来相当强劲的经济。但一个负面的重要影响是,美国的借款可能会飙升。我认为,美国的国家债务可能会增加7万亿美元。”
帕内塔似乎引用了中立预算监督机构负责任联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)10月份的一项分析。该分析预测,如果特朗普的政策成功实施,美国的国家负债将增加7.75万亿美元。特朗普竞选时主张大幅减税,并提议对所有进入美国的商品征收全面关税。
然而,帕内塔表示,特朗普一些非正统经济政策对本已强劲的美国经济的确切影响仍不确定。他表示:“美国的经济状况良好,但显然[特朗普]对美国经济构成了真正的冲击。”
帕内塔不仅是国家安全专家,还是政府预算方面的专家。在比尔·克林顿执政时期,帕内塔曾担任管理和预算办公室(Office of Management and Budget)主任和白宫幕僚长。在此之前,帕内塔是加利福尼亚州的国会议员,并担任众议院预算委员会(House Budget Committee)主席。
尽管帕内塔支持特朗普经济议程的大方向,如放松监管和减税,但他也有保留意见。他特别关注的是美国将被迫为不断增加的国家债务支付利息。根据国会预算办公室3月份的分析,预计今年美国国家债务的利息支付将达到8,700亿美元,超过8,220亿美元的年度国防预算。
帕内塔表示,利息支付“将继续增加,[这将]对利率造成压力。这在很大程度上会对全球产生影响,因为随着美元的升值——我认为美元会持续升值——这将给全球经济带来更大的压力。”
由于美元是国际贸易的首选货币,美元强势地位的变化可能会在全球范围内产生连锁反应。随着美元走强,相对于其他货币,用美元借款的还债成本会增加,并推高全球商品的成本。这可能对美国有利,但会给其他国家,特别是新兴市场国家,造成经济状况紧张。
截至7月,特朗普认为美元过于强势。他曾对彭博社表示,美国存在一个“严重的货币问题”。
帕内塔指出,特朗普在准备入主白宫时面临的难题是,他的许多政策预计会使美元升值。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
President-elect Trump’s economic agenda—cut taxes and embark on a widespread campaign of deregulation—could risk running up the already skyhigh national debt, according to former CIA Director and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta.
“That will inspire a pretty strong economy,” Panetta said during an onstage interview at Fortune’s Global Forum. “The big dark side of this is that it is likely borrowing in the U.S. is going to soar. We’re looking at, I think, the possibility of maybe adding $7 trillion to the national debt.”
Panetta appeared to be referencing projections from an October analysis by the nonpartisan budget watchdog the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget that forecasted a $7.75 trillion increase in the national debt if Trump were to successfully implement his policies. Trump campaigned on sweeping tax cuts and a proposal to levy blanket tariffs on all goods coming into the U.S.
However, the exact impact of some of Trump’s unorthodox economic policies on an otherwise strong economy remains uncertain, according to Panetta. “The economy is good, but obviously [Trump] represents a real jolt to the economy in America,” he said.
In addition to being an expert on national security Panetta is also a specialist in governmental budgeting. During Bill Clinton’s administration, Panetta served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget and White House chief of staff. Previously, Panetta was a Congressman from California and chaired the House Budget Committee.
Despite being supportive of the broad strokes of Trump’s economic agenda, namely deregulation and cutting taxes, Panetta was not without reservations. Of particular concern were the interest payments the U.S. would be forced to make on its rising national debt. Interest payments on the national debt, expected to reach $870 billion this year, now exceed the $822 billion annual defense budget, according to a March analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.
Interest payments are “going to continue to increase, [which will] create pressure on interest rates,” Panetta said. “That to a large extent is going to impact on the global side, because with the value of the dollar being high—I think it’s going to continue to grow—it’s going to create more pressure in terms of the global economy.”
Because the U.S. dollar is the currency of choice for much of international trade, changes to its strength can have ripple effects across the world. When the dollar becomes stronger, it makes repaying debts on money borrowed in dollars more expensive and pushes up costs of global goods relative to other currencies. This may be good for the U.S. but can create tight economic conditions for other countries, particularly those in emerging markets.
As of July, Trump’s view was that the U.S. dollar was too strong. He told Bloomberg the U.S. had a “big currency problem.”
The conundrum Trump faces, as he prepares to enter the White House, is that many of his policies are expected to strengthen the dollar, as Panetta pointed out.