一位著名经济学家表示,因为人们预测共和党在大选中大获全胜,让人们看到了减税和放松监管的希望,这使得美国金融市场对世界其他地区更有吸引力,华尔街情绪一直高涨。
上周五,安联(Allianz)首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安在接受彭博电视台采访时,被问及投资者是否可以预期,伴随着更严重的通胀将会出现正增长冲击。
他回应称:“未来前进的方向很明确:更多的增长,略高的通胀,更高的公共部门借款需求,以及对外资巨大的吸引力,将使大量外国资本涌入美国。”
埃里安补充说,随着新一届特朗普政府的政策变得更加明确——以及执行这些政策的人选确定,这些趋势的规模将变得更加明显。
就在总统选举后的几天,关于内阁的潜在人选这个话题掀起了热烈讨论。上周五,《金融时报》报道称,特朗普首个任期内担任美国贸易代表的罗伯特·莱特希泽被要求再次担任该职位。
与此同时,《金融时报》还爆料称,财政部长的职位可能由一名金融家担任,对冲基金经理斯科特·贝森特和约翰·保尔森被视为可能的人选。
埃里安表示,与此同时,世界其他国家在应对经济快速增长和通胀加剧的时期可能面临更多困难,这会增加美国的相对优势。
他解释称:“这是美国增加全球体系主导地位的一个时期,短期内既有积极原因也有消极原因。世界其他国家根本无法建立足够的管道绕过美国。他们正在努力并且一直在这样做,但这些管道的规模根本无法与美国的规模相提并论。”
事实上,尽管人们担心特朗普的减税、加征关税和打击移民等政策将加剧通胀并恶化赤字,但在选举后迅速大幅上涨的债券收益率已经回落。
埃里安认为,这是因为相对于其他发达经济体的债券,美国债券变得更具吸引力。
对美国国债的持续需求将帮助联邦政府为预计在特朗普第二个总统任期内可能爆发的债务危机提供融资。
在选举前,中立的负责任联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)估计,特朗普的政策可能使债务增加7.5万亿美元,甚至可能高达15.2万亿美元。
但是,如果投资者(尤其是“债券卫士”)对美国财政部拍卖的巨额债务不满,他们可能会推高债券收益率,并提高抵押贷款利率等关键经济领域的借贷成本。
然而,贝莱德(BlackRock)董事长兼CEO拉里·芬克在上周二的《华尔街日报》专栏文章中表示,更快的经济增长将更有助于管理美国的债务。
他写道:“如果未来五年GDP以年均3%的实际增长率增长,美国的债务与GDP之比将保持在一个较高但合理的水平。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
一位著名经济学家表示,因为人们预测共和党在大选中大获全胜,让人们看到了减税和放松监管的希望,这使得美国金融市场对世界其他地区更有吸引力,华尔街情绪一直高涨。
上周五,安联(Allianz)首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安在接受彭博电视台采访时,被问及投资者是否可以预期,伴随着更严重的通胀将会出现正增长冲击。
他回应称:“未来前进的方向很明确:更多的增长,略高的通胀,更高的公共部门借款需求,以及对外资巨大的吸引力,将使大量外国资本涌入美国。”
埃里安补充说,随着新一届特朗普政府的政策变得更加明确——以及执行这些政策的人选确定,这些趋势的规模将变得更加明显。
就在总统选举后的几天,关于内阁的潜在人选这个话题掀起了热烈讨论。上周五,《金融时报》报道称,特朗普首个任期内担任美国贸易代表的罗伯特·莱特希泽被要求再次担任该职位。
与此同时,《金融时报》还爆料称,财政部长的职位可能由一名金融家担任,对冲基金经理斯科特·贝森特和约翰·保尔森被视为可能的人选。
埃里安表示,与此同时,世界其他国家在应对经济快速增长和通胀加剧的时期可能面临更多困难,这会增加美国的相对优势。
他解释称:“这是美国增加全球体系主导地位的一个时期,短期内既有积极原因也有消极原因。世界其他国家根本无法建立足够的管道绕过美国。他们正在努力并且一直在这样做,但这些管道的规模根本无法与美国的规模相提并论。”
事实上,尽管人们担心特朗普的减税、加征关税和打击移民等政策将加剧通胀并恶化赤字,但在选举后迅速大幅上涨的债券收益率已经回落。
埃里安认为,这是因为相对于其他发达经济体的债券,美国债券变得更具吸引力。
对美国国债的持续需求将帮助联邦政府为预计在特朗普第二个总统任期内可能爆发的债务危机提供融资。
在选举前,中立的负责任联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)估计,特朗普的政策可能使债务增加7.5万亿美元,甚至可能高达15.2万亿美元。
但是,如果投资者(尤其是“债券卫士”)对美国财政部拍卖的巨额债务不满,他们可能会推高债券收益率,并提高抵押贷款利率等关键经济领域的借贷成本。
然而,贝莱德(BlackRock)董事长兼CEO拉里·芬克在上周二的《华尔街日报》专栏文章中表示,更快的经济增长将更有助于管理美国的债务。
他写道:“如果未来五年GDP以年均3%的实际增长率增长,美国的债务与GDP之比将保持在一个较高但合理的水平。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
Wall Street has been flying high as an expected Republican sweep in the election drives hopes for lower taxes and deregulation, and that makes U.S. financial markets more attractive to the rest of the world, a top economist said.
In an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday, Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian was asked if investors should expect a positive growth shock that’s accompanied by more inflation.
“The direction of travel is clear: More growth, slightly higher inflation, a higher public sector borrowing requirement, and a huge sucking sound where a lot of foreign capital will end up in the U.S.,” he replied.
The magnitudes of those trends will become more apparent when policies from the incoming Trump administration become clearer—and when the people who will carry them out become known, El-Erian added.
Just days after the presidential election, talk of potential Cabinet appointments is already ramping up. On Friday, the Financial Times reported that Robert Lighthizer, who was U.S. Trade Representative during Trump’s first term, was asked to fill the post again.
Meanwhile, the job of Treasury secretary will likely be offered to a financier, the FT added, with hedge fund managers Scott Bessent and John Paulson seen as possibilities.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world may have more trouble coping with a period of faster growth and hotter inflation, adding to America’s relative edge, El-Erian said.
“This is a period in which U.S. dominance of the global system is going to increase, both for positive reasons and for negative reasons in the short term,” he explained. “The rest of the world simply cannot build enough pipes around the U.S. They’re trying and they’ve been doing it, but these pipes are very small compared to the size of the U.S.”
Indeed, despite fears that Trump’s tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration crackdown will be inflationary and worsen deficits, bonds yields have come back down after soaring in the immediate aftermath of the election.
El-Erian argued that’s because U.S. bonds have become more attractive relative to those from other advanced economies.
Continued demand for Treasuries would help the federal government finance what’s expected to be an explosion of debt under another Trump presidency.
Ahead of the election, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that his policies could add $7.5 trillion to the debt and possibly as much as $15.2 trillion.
But if investors, especially “bond vigilantes,” balk at the enormous volumes of debt the Treasury Department auctions, they could send yields higher and raise borrowing costs across key segments of the economy, like mortgage rates.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Tuesday, however, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink said faster economic growth would help make U.S. debt more manageable.
“If GDP rises at an average of 3% in real terms over the next five years, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio would stay roughly stable at a high, but reasonable, level,” he wrote.