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特朗普上任在即,美国富人纷纷出逃

Ryan Hogg
2024-11-13

美国总统大选如火如荼进行的同时,许多美国人开始制定“出逃”计划。

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图片来源:Gabriel Mello—Getty Images

多年来,美国老年人一直将地处美国南方的佛罗里达州作为自己退休后理想的休养之地,希望在此洗去自己辛苦工作四十年的疲惫。

但现在越来越多富裕的美国公民开始考虑移居大西洋彼岸,许多人认为,之所以会出现这种风潮,正是因为特朗普即将重返白宫。

早在今年三月,《财富》杂志就采访了那些计划在特朗普当选美国总统后移居国外的美国人,这种态度表明了他们对特朗普执政结果的担忧,同时表明了他们对日益毒化的美国政治环境的厌倦。

“我们国家已经变成一个偏狭的国度”

大卫是一位来自芝加哥的律师,现年65岁,今年四月拿出了50万美元预算前往葡萄牙进行考察,希望能在里斯本和波尔图之间的银海岸为自己找个新的“第二家园”。

由于担心可能遭到骚扰,所以这位律师要求我们在报道时采用化名,他表示,美国的政治气候太过恶劣,自己被迫到大西洋彼岸寻找安宁。

大卫的祖父母、外祖父母均为从埃利斯岛登陆美国的移民,作为他们的孙辈,大卫对美国关于移民政策的争论感到特别不安。

大卫说:“我们国家已经变成一个偏狭的国度。”

“美国总是喜欢妖魔化与自己不同的人。我们看到南部边境那些人的照片,他们只是普通人,但两党都在出于政治原因利用他们,这只是‘极端偏狭’的一个例子,我感到很难过。”

这位律师还希望逃避日益迫近的枪支暴力威胁。

大卫说:“我在大约15年前就告诉过我太太,我已经接受了在这个国家随时可能遭到枪杀的事实。”

大卫希望在11月美国大选前把房产买好,他认为如果特朗普重返白宫,海外房产的需求可能飙升。

美国人纷纷移居海外

这位律师下个月的考察不仅是为了自己。

他和太太还要为另外五位朋友选好置业地点和房产。

据凯莉·阿达梅克介绍,像大卫和他朋友们这样出于政治原因选择背井离乡的人并非少数,阿达梅克是Casa Azul的房地产顾问,专门就相关业务向大卫和其他美国人提供建议。

“大家更多不是出于税务方面的考量,而是更关心接下来几个月美国会发生什么。大家只是希望到11月选举尘埃落定时,自己能多一个选择”,阿达梅克告诉《财富》杂志。

今年三月,外界普遍认为2024 年大选将是2020年大选的重演,由特朗普和拜登分别代表共和党和民主党投身选战。

今年七月,拜登退出竞选,为他的副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯与特朗普展开对决铺平了道路。

这场对决与2016年和2020年的选战一样,极具分裂性。

“从我所看到的情况来说,这在某种程度上将是第一次有选举结果会对某人是否移居海外(无论是全时移居还是临时移居)产生决定性影响。”

阿达梅克表示,这些美国买家在葡萄牙寻找目标房产,但他们更倾向于左派。

据马尔科·佩尔穆尼安表示,只要观察一下通过其意大利入籍协助公司(Italian Citizenship Assistance,ICA)申请意大利护照的人数,就能很好地了解美国的政治不稳定情况。

自2016年特朗普入主白宫以来,相关咨询就开始激增。

2020年,受新冠疫情、弗洛伊德案引发的抗议和骚乱导致不稳定性进一步加剧,及最高法院推翻“罗诉韦德案”影响,咨询量再次上升。

随着美国在2024年初迎来特朗普和拜登之间的第二场激烈对决,ICA在今年1月至3月间的咨询量激增三倍也就不足为奇了。

不过,佩尔穆尼安表示,最近一波咨询量激增是因为两党支持者都产生了厌倦情绪。

他的客户大多来自纽约、宾夕法尼亚和波士顿等东海岸地区,还有许多来自加州和得克萨斯州等地。

他说,对许多人来说,护照申请通常是其寻求在意大利或其他欧盟国家另寻新家的长期计划的第一步,而不是即将移民的迹象。

佩尔穆尼安告诉《财富》杂志:“大多数人仍未做好移居准备,不过为了以防万一,也正在进行相关准备。”

该公司主要服务的是年龄在35到65岁之间、寻求获得额外公民身份的客户。

从最新数据也能看出这一点。

最新的《美国财富报告》(USA Wealth Report)发现,在政治环境恶化的背景下,寻求海外居留权和公民身份的美国人数量再创新高。

公民权与居留权顾问公司Latitude Consultancy的董事总经理克里斯托弗·威利斯收到的客户咨询量就增长了300%。

这意味着聪明的投资者正在着手制定离美计划,以便在年内需求进一步攀升前做好准备。

葡萄牙和西班牙已成备受威利斯客户欢迎的欧洲目的国。

“大家并没有等到11月再行动,而是现在已经开始着手打理相关事务”,威利斯说。

“这样如果情况有变,他们就有了伺机而动的选择,而不是等选举结束后再手忙脚乱,不知从何下手。”

纽约人史蒂文(同样是化名)正在通过Casa Azul申请迁居葡萄牙,目前正在等待自己的签证获得批准。

厌倦了纽约市的生活,他和他的巴西裔妻子放弃了这里每月3500美元租金的住所,选择在里斯本租一套每月2100美元的三居室。

史蒂文谈到纽约时说:“如果你仍有抱负和动力去成就一番事业,那么纽约是个好城市。”

“但如果你想稍微放慢节奏,那么这里会压得你喘不过气来。”

尽管政治气候并非他移居国外的主要原因,史蒂文承认美国的政治体系已经陷入“疯狂”。

史蒂文说:“回来这里令人惶恐不安”。

欧洲自身的政治问题

为应对特朗普再次当选总统而逃离美国的美国人可能会发现,国外的月亮不一定更圆。

对于厌倦了两极化政治环境和日益增长的暴力威胁的美国侨民来说,欧洲似乎是他们理想的“避风港”,只是这个大陆已不再是后二战时代那个安全、温和的庇护所了。

特朗普威胁说,如果他连任,只要“拖欠会费”的欧洲国家不按约定支付2%的 GDP作为成员国会费,他将退出北约。

正如空客首席执行官和欧盟委员会(European Commission)主席冯德莱恩等领导人所警告的那样,此举将使欧洲面临战略风险。

对于美国人来说,这也意味着在欧洲购买房产变得比以往更加复杂。

葡萄牙去年取消了“黄金签证”计划。该计划允许外国人通过购买房产获得居留权,最终获得该国国籍。

此举使得有意移民该国的民众纷纷在计划关闭之前争抢该国签证。

现在,对于富裕的外国人来说,更高水平投资(关键是非房地产投资)才是最佳选择。

人们担心,该国议会中右翼政党的崛起可能会使“移民有害论”获得更大市场,像美国一样让极端化成为常态。

在意大利,执政的极右翼党派对国家的文化面貌进行了彻底变革,并祭出举措打压移民。

但Casa Azul的阿达梅克表示,虽然在“黄金签证”计划关闭后,关于葡萄牙居留权的咨询预计会大幅下降,但可能是由于美国大选的影响,申请量目前仍保持稳定。

至于欧洲自身的政治问题,大卫并不像对美国那样焦虑。

大卫谈到欧洲日益紧张的政治局势时说:“他们都像小特朗普,所以我不担心。”

“葡萄牙一直是个相当自由的地方。所以我不太担心。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

多年来,美国老年人一直将地处美国南方的佛罗里达州作为自己退休后理想的休养之地,希望在此洗去自己辛苦工作四十年的疲惫。

但现在越来越多富裕的美国公民开始考虑移居大西洋彼岸,许多人认为,之所以会出现这种风潮,正是因为特朗普即将重返白宫。

早在今年三月,《财富》杂志就采访了那些计划在特朗普当选美国总统后移居国外的美国人,这种态度表明了他们对特朗普执政结果的担忧,同时表明了他们对日益毒化的美国政治环境的厌倦。

“我们国家已经变成一个偏狭的国度”

大卫是一位来自芝加哥的律师,现年65岁,今年四月拿出了50万美元预算前往葡萄牙进行考察,希望能在里斯本和波尔图之间的银海岸为自己找个新的“第二家园”。

由于担心可能遭到骚扰,所以这位律师要求我们在报道时采用化名,他表示,美国的政治气候太过恶劣,自己被迫到大西洋彼岸寻找安宁。

大卫的祖父母、外祖父母均为从埃利斯岛登陆美国的移民,作为他们的孙辈,大卫对美国关于移民政策的争论感到特别不安。

大卫说:“我们国家已经变成一个偏狭的国度。”

“美国总是喜欢妖魔化与自己不同的人。我们看到南部边境那些人的照片,他们只是普通人,但两党都在出于政治原因利用他们,这只是‘极端偏狭’的一个例子,我感到很难过。”

这位律师还希望逃避日益迫近的枪支暴力威胁。

大卫说:“我在大约15年前就告诉过我太太,我已经接受了在这个国家随时可能遭到枪杀的事实。”

大卫希望在11月美国大选前把房产买好,他认为如果特朗普重返白宫,海外房产的需求可能飙升。

美国人纷纷移居海外

这位律师下个月的考察不仅是为了自己。

他和太太还要为另外五位朋友选好置业地点和房产。

据凯莉·阿达梅克介绍,像大卫和他朋友们这样出于政治原因选择背井离乡的人并非少数,阿达梅克是Casa Azul的房地产顾问,专门就相关业务向大卫和其他美国人提供建议。

“大家更多不是出于税务方面的考量,而是更关心接下来几个月美国会发生什么。大家只是希望到11月选举尘埃落定时,自己能多一个选择”,阿达梅克告诉《财富》杂志。

今年三月,外界普遍认为2024 年大选将是2020年大选的重演,由特朗普和拜登分别代表共和党和民主党投身选战。

今年七月,拜登退出竞选,为他的副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯与特朗普展开对决铺平了道路。

这场对决与2016年和2020年的选战一样,极具分裂性。

“从我所看到的情况来说,这在某种程度上将是第一次有选举结果会对某人是否移居海外(无论是全时移居还是临时移居)产生决定性影响。”

阿达梅克表示,这些美国买家在葡萄牙寻找目标房产,但他们更倾向于左派。

据马尔科·佩尔穆尼安表示,只要观察一下通过其意大利入籍协助公司(Italian Citizenship Assistance,ICA)申请意大利护照的人数,就能很好地了解美国的政治不稳定情况。

自2016年特朗普入主白宫以来,相关咨询就开始激增。

2020年,受新冠疫情、弗洛伊德案引发的抗议和骚乱导致不稳定性进一步加剧,及最高法院推翻“罗诉韦德案”影响,咨询量再次上升。

随着美国在2024年初迎来特朗普和拜登之间的第二场激烈对决,ICA在今年1月至3月间的咨询量激增三倍也就不足为奇了。

不过,佩尔穆尼安表示,最近一波咨询量激增是因为两党支持者都产生了厌倦情绪。

他的客户大多来自纽约、宾夕法尼亚和波士顿等东海岸地区,还有许多来自加州和得克萨斯州等地。

他说,对许多人来说,护照申请通常是其寻求在意大利或其他欧盟国家另寻新家的长期计划的第一步,而不是即将移民的迹象。

佩尔穆尼安告诉《财富》杂志:“大多数人仍未做好移居准备,不过为了以防万一,也正在进行相关准备。”

该公司主要服务的是年龄在35到65岁之间、寻求获得额外公民身份的客户。

从最新数据也能看出这一点。

最新的《美国财富报告》(USA Wealth Report)发现,在政治环境恶化的背景下,寻求海外居留权和公民身份的美国人数量再创新高。

公民权与居留权顾问公司Latitude Consultancy的董事总经理克里斯托弗·威利斯收到的客户咨询量就增长了300%。

这意味着聪明的投资者正在着手制定离美计划,以便在年内需求进一步攀升前做好准备。

葡萄牙和西班牙已成备受威利斯客户欢迎的欧洲目的国。

“大家并没有等到11月再行动,而是现在已经开始着手打理相关事务”,威利斯说。

“这样如果情况有变,他们就有了伺机而动的选择,而不是等选举结束后再手忙脚乱,不知从何下手。”

纽约人史蒂文(同样是化名)正在通过Casa Azul申请迁居葡萄牙,目前正在等待自己的签证获得批准。

厌倦了纽约市的生活,他和他的巴西裔妻子放弃了这里每月3500美元租金的住所,选择在里斯本租一套每月2100美元的三居室。

史蒂文谈到纽约时说:“如果你仍有抱负和动力去成就一番事业,那么纽约是个好城市。”

“但如果你想稍微放慢节奏,那么这里会压得你喘不过气来。”

尽管政治气候并非他移居国外的主要原因,史蒂文承认美国的政治体系已经陷入“疯狂”。

史蒂文说:“回来这里令人惶恐不安”。

欧洲自身的政治问题

为应对特朗普再次当选总统而逃离美国的美国人可能会发现,国外的月亮不一定更圆。

对于厌倦了两极化政治环境和日益增长的暴力威胁的美国侨民来说,欧洲似乎是他们理想的“避风港”,只是这个大陆已不再是后二战时代那个安全、温和的庇护所了。

特朗普威胁说,如果他连任,只要“拖欠会费”的欧洲国家不按约定支付2%的 GDP作为成员国会费,他将退出北约。

正如空客首席执行官和欧盟委员会(European Commission)主席冯德莱恩等领导人所警告的那样,此举将使欧洲面临战略风险。

对于美国人来说,这也意味着在欧洲购买房产变得比以往更加复杂。

葡萄牙去年取消了“黄金签证”计划。该计划允许外国人通过购买房产获得居留权,最终获得该国国籍。

此举使得有意移民该国的民众纷纷在计划关闭之前争抢该国签证。

现在,对于富裕的外国人来说,更高水平投资(关键是非房地产投资)才是最佳选择。

人们担心,该国议会中右翼政党的崛起可能会使“移民有害论”获得更大市场,像美国一样让极端化成为常态。

在意大利,执政的极右翼党派对国家的文化面貌进行了彻底变革,并祭出举措打压移民。

但Casa Azul的阿达梅克表示,虽然在“黄金签证”计划关闭后,关于葡萄牙居留权的咨询预计会大幅下降,但可能是由于美国大选的影响,申请量目前仍保持稳定。

至于欧洲自身的政治问题,大卫并不像对美国那样焦虑。

大卫谈到欧洲日益紧张的政治局势时说:“他们都像小特朗普,所以我不担心。”

“葡萄牙一直是个相当自由的地方。所以我不太担心。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

For years, aging Americans have looked south to Florida for their ideal retirement home to escape into retirement from their four-decade grinds in the U.S. workforce.

But wealthy citizens are increasingly considering a life across the Atlantic, with Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House being labeled as the reason.

Back in March, Fortune spoke to Americans who were planning to up sticks in the event Trump was elected U.S. president, a sign of their fears for the outcome of his reign, and of fatigue with the increasingly toxic U.S. political environment.

________________________________________

‘This country of mine has become intolerant’

David, a 65-year-old lawyer from Chicago, went to Portugal on a scouting trip in April with a $500,000 budget in the hopes of finding a new second home on the Silver Coast, between Lisbon and Porto.

The lawyer, who asked to remain anonymous, citing concerns he might be harassed, said the political climate had turned so toxic that he was driven to seek peace across the Atlantic.

As the grandson of four immigrants who landed on Ellis Island, David has become particularly perturbed by debate in the U.S. around immigration.

“This country of mine has become intolerant,” David says.

“This country has always vilified people who are not like them. So we see these pictures of people on the south of the border, and they’re just people, but both sides use them for political reasons, and that’s just one example of the absolute intolerance, and it’s sad.”

The lawyer is also moving to escape the looming threat of gun violence.

“I told my wife about 15 years ago that I had made peace with the fact that I could be shot dead at any moment in time in this country,” David said.

David was hoping to close a deal before the U.S. elections in November, believing that if Trump secured a second term as President, demand for homes abroad could skyrocket.

________________________________________

Americans rushing abroad

The lawyer isn’t just going on a scouting trip for himself next month.

He and his wife intend to earmark locations and properties for five of their other friends.

David’s and his friend’s politically motivated decision to start uncoupling themselves from their home country isn’t uncommon, according to Kylie Adamec, a real estate consultant for Casa Azul who is advising David and other Americans on their moves.

“People are not caring so much about the tax situation, they’re more concerned with what’s going to happen in the United States in the next couple of months.

Come November with the election, people just want to have options set up,” Adamec told Fortune.

In March, Donald Trump and Joe Biden were confirmed as the respective Republican and Democrat nominees for the U.S. presidency in a rematch of 2020.

Biden stepped down from the race in July, making way for his VP Kamala Harris to take on Trump.

The run-in was, in line with the 2016 and 2020 election battles, an incredibly divisive affair.

“From what I can see, it’s, this is a first-time thing in terms of the decision of an election really being a determining factor in whether or not someone moves abroad, be it full-time or part-time.”

Adamec says it’s a mix of American buyers looking at property options in Portugal, but they are more left-leaning.

According to Marco Permunian, you can get a good sense of political instability in the U.S. simply by observing the number of people applying for Italian passports through his company, Italian Citizenship Assistance (ICA), at any given time.

Inquiries began to spike in 2016 following Trump’s election to the White House.

They did so again in 2020 following the COVID-19 pandemic and instability stoked by protests and riots following the murder of George Floyd, as well as after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade.

As the U.S. geared up for a second gruesome showdown between Trump and Biden at the start of the 2024, it was no surprise that ICA saw inquiries triple between January and March of this year.

The latest spike, though, is attributable to exhaustion on both sides of the political spectrum, Permunian says.

The majority of his clients are from the East Coast areas of New York, Pennsylvania, and Boston, but there are more dotted across the country in places like California and Texas.

He says demand for passports is often the first move for many in a long-term plan to seek a new home in Italy or elsewhere in the European Union, rather than a sign of imminent emigration.

“The majority is still not ready to move but is getting ready, just in case,” Permunian told Fortune.

The company mainly works with people between the ages of 35 and 65 who are looking for extra citizenship options.

That chimes with the latest data.

The latest USA Wealth Report found a record number of Americans were looking abroad for residency and citizenship options as the political environment frayed.

Christopher Willis, managing director of citizenship and residency advisor Latitude Consultancy, is experiencing a 300% increase in client inquiries.

It means the smart money is going toward getting exit plans in place now before demand jumps further later in the year.

Portugal and Spain are proving to be particularly popular European locations for Willis’s clients.

“People are not waiting for November. They’re getting their affairs in order now,” Willis said.

“So if things go sideways, they’ve already got the option to act on it as opposed to scrambling once the election is completed.”

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Steven, who was also using a pseudonym as he is awaiting visa approval, is a New Yorker making the move to Portugal through Casa Azul.

Having grown sick of New York City, he and his Brazilian wife are giving up their $3,500 rent in the Big Apple for a $2,100 per month three-bedroom home in Lisbon.

“It’s a great city if you have to still have ambition and drive,” Steven says of New York.

“But if you want to downshift a little, it will just steamroll you.”

While the political climate isn’t the main reason for his move, Steven acknowledged that the U.S. political system had become “crazy.”

“Being back here is horrifying,” Steven said.

________________________________________

Europe’s own political toxicity

Americans escaping the U.S. in the event of a Trump presidency may find the grass isn’t necessarily greener across the pond.

Europe may appear a haven for U.S. expats tired of their polarized climate and growing threats of violence, but the continent is no longer the safe or mild-mannered haven it has been for so much of the post-World War Two era.

Trump has threatened to pull out of NATO if he is re-elected if “delinquent” European nations don’t pay an agreed 2% of their GDP towards membership in the bloc.

That leaves Europe strategically exposed, as leading figures from the Airbus CEO to European Commission chief Christine Lagarde have warned.

It is also more complicated than it once was for Americans to buy their place on the continent.

Portugal scrapped its golden visa program last year, which allowed foreigners to acquire residency and eventually citizenship in the country through the purchase of property.

This set off a scramble to secure visas in the country before the scheme closed.

A higher level of investment, crucially not in real estate, is now the best option for wealthy foreigners.

There are fears that the elevation of right-wing parties into the country’s parliament could further intensify harmful rhetoric against immigrants, aping the kind of polarization that has become commonplace in the U.S.

In Italy, the ruling far-right party has made sweeping changes to the country’s cultural landscape and clamped down on immigration.

Casa Azul’s Adamec, though, said despite expecting inquiries about residency in Portugal to nosedive following the closure of the golden visa program, applications have remained steady, probably fueled by the U.S. election.

As for Europe’s own political toxicity, David isn’t feeling anywhere near as anxious as events in the U.S. have made him.

“They’re all kind of like baby Trumps, so I’m not going to worry about it,” David says of Europe’s intensifying political cauldron.

“Portugal’s always been a pretty liberal place. I’m not overly concerned.”

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