说起股神巴菲特,大家最熟悉的就是他的那句投资箴言:“别人贪婪我恐惧,别人恐惧我贪婪”——出自巴菲特1968年致股东的一封信。这句话时至今日仍有很强的指导性,因为现在美股又爬升到了新高度,大家似乎都动起来了——除了巴菲特自己。那么,“股神”是恐惧了,还是贪婪了呢?
虽然股市一路走高,但巴菲特从来没有像现在这样把大把现金捂在手里。据报表显示,他的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前大约持有3250亿美元的现金和现金等价物,其中超过2880亿美元是美国国债,也就是所谓的“无风险”利率投资产品。
与此同时,巴菲特还在市场上疯狂抛售股票。据CNN报道,在过去8个季度中,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司每个季度卖出的股票都超过了买入,最引人注目的就是抛售了最主要的三个仓位中的两个——苹果和美银。
截至去年年底,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司共持有价值1780亿美元的苹果公司股份,比第二大仓位高出五倍。虽然苹果是伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司持仓最多的股票,但巴菲特今年已经减持了一大半。到今年9月30日,它持有的苹果股份大约价值699亿美元。
将这些股份变现后,伯克希尔-哈撒韦的季度净利润达到262.5亿美元,相当于每一股A股变现18272美元。如下图所示,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的股价已经轻松跑赢了大盘,过去三年的回报率是标普500指数的两倍还多。
巴菲特会大举入市吗?
除了及时收手变现以外,巴菲特如此大手笔抛售股份,是否也因为他认为市场已经过热了?著名的“巴菲特指标”(即将所有上市股份的价值与美国经济总规模进行比较)表明,巴菲特有可能的确是这样想的。
据《华尔街日报》计,美国当前的威尔希尔5000指数已达200%左右,这表明美股积聚的压力已经超过了科技泡沫探顶的那段时期。
一旦市场下行,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司肯定会拿出资金抄底。《华尔街日报》指出,巴菲特的公司可能会瞄准25家左右美国最有价值的上市公司,包括迪士尼、高盛、辉瑞、通用电气和AT&T等。
当然,巴菲特也有可能因为股市整体估值过高,而在此轮反弹中选择不出手,又或者他只是在单纯地等待机会。据《华尔街日报》报道,巴菲特曾在2023年的年会上表示:“我们要买入的是那些真正优秀的公司。如果我们能以500亿、750亿或者1000亿美元买入一家真正优秀的公司,我们就会那样做的。”但是能达到这种规模的公司并不多,所以这也可以解释为什么巴菲特一直没有出手。
《华尔街日报》指出,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前的现金储备情况,可能是为什么巴菲特没有大举入市的主要原因之一。目前,该公司要进行任何形式的收购,可能都要支付20%或以上的溢价。与此同时,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的规模已经太大了,因此它也越来越难复制其能利用利润持续跑赢市场的那种可靠模式。
在去年年会上,巴菲特还表示,他将持有更多现金,好为更高的资本所得税做准备。不过,虽然巴菲特认为这件事已经是迫在眉睫了,但美国的资本所得税可能不会很快到来,毕竟特朗普马上就要二次入主白宫了。(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
说起股神巴菲特,大家最熟悉的就是他的那句投资箴言:“别人贪婪我恐惧,别人恐惧我贪婪”——出自巴菲特1968年致股东的一封信。这句话时至今日仍有很强的指导性,因为现在美股又爬升到了新高度,大家似乎都动起来了——除了巴菲特自己。那么,“股神”是恐惧了,还是贪婪了呢?
虽然股市一路走高,但巴菲特从来没有像现在这样把大把现金捂在手里。据报表显示,他的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前大约持有3250亿美元的现金和现金等价物,其中超过2880亿美元是美国国债,也就是所谓的“无风险”利率投资产品。
与此同时,巴菲特还在市场上疯狂抛售股票。据CNN报道,在过去8个季度中,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司每个季度卖出的股票都超过了买入,最引人注目的就是抛售了最主要的三个仓位中的两个——苹果和美银。
截至去年年底,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司共持有价值1780亿美元的苹果公司股份,比第二大仓位高出五倍。虽然苹果是伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司持仓最多的股票,但巴菲特今年已经减持了一大半。到今年9月30日,它持有的苹果股份大约价值699亿美元。
将这些股份变现后,伯克希尔-哈撒韦的季度净利润达到262.5亿美元,相当于每一股A股变现18272美元。如下图所示,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的股价已经轻松跑赢了大盘,过去三年的回报率是标普500指数的两倍还多。
巴菲特会大举入市吗?
除了及时收手变现以外,巴菲特如此大手笔抛售股份,是否也因为他认为市场已经过热了?著名的“巴菲特指标”(即将所有上市股份的价值与美国经济总规模进行比较)表明,巴菲特有可能的确是这样想的。
据《华尔街日报》计,美国当前的威尔希尔5000指数已达200%左右,这表明美股积聚的压力已经超过了科技泡沫探顶的那段时期。
一旦市场下行,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司肯定会拿出资金抄底。《华尔街日报》指出,巴菲特的公司可能会瞄准25家左右美国最有价值的上市公司,包括迪士尼、高盛、辉瑞、通用电气和AT&T等。
当然,巴菲特也有可能因为股市整体估值过高,而在此轮反弹中选择不出手,又或者他只是在单纯地等待机会。据《华尔街日报》报道,巴菲特曾在2023年的年会上表示:“我们要买入的是那些真正优秀的公司。如果我们能以500亿、750亿或者1000亿美元买入一家真正优秀的公司,我们就会那样做的。”但是能达到这种规模的公司并不多,所以这也可以解释为什么巴菲特一直没有出手。
《华尔街日报》指出,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前的现金储备情况,可能是为什么巴菲特没有大举入市的主要原因之一。目前,该公司要进行任何形式的收购,可能都要支付20%或以上的溢价。与此同时,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的规模已经太大了,因此它也越来越难复制其能利用利润持续跑赢市场的那种可靠模式。
在去年年会上,巴菲特还表示,他将持有更多现金,好为更高的资本所得税做准备。不过,虽然巴菲特认为这件事已经是迫在眉睫了,但美国的资本所得税可能不会很快到来,毕竟特朗普马上就要二次入主白宫了。(财富中文网)
译者:朴成奎
One of the famous pieces of investment advice is “be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” It’s fitting this advice comes from the world’s most famous investor, Warren Buffett, who first set out a version of it in a 1968 letter to shareholders. His words are more timely than ever as the stock market reaches new heights and as everyone appears to be getting in on the action—except Buffett himself. Has the Oracle of Omaha grown fearful?
Even as corporate valuations soar, Buffett has never sat on more dollar bills. His conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, currently holds $325 billion in cash and equivalents, according to the firm’s quarterly financial statements. Over $288 billion of that pile is in U.S. Treasury Bills, the textbook example of investing at the so-called “risk-free” rate.
At the same time, the Oracle has been active in the market—in the form of a selling spree. During each of the last eight quarters, CNN reports that Berkshire has offloaded more stock than it’s bought, most notably selling off two of its top-three largest holdings— Apple and Bank of America.
Apple made up $178 billion of Berkshire’s portfolio at the end of last year, roughly five times the size of the conglomerate’s next largest position. While the iPhone maker, which Buffett has long praised, remains Berkshire’s top holding, the conglomerate has trimmed its stake by over half. As of Sept. 30, it holds $69.9 billion worth of Apple shares.
Realizing gains on those investments drove Berkshires’ quarterly net earnings up to $26.25 billion, or $18,272 per Class A share. As the chart below shows, the conglomerate’s stock has easily outpaced the broader market, more than doubling the return of the S&P 500 over the last three years.
Will Buffett make a big acquisition?
Beyond immense profit taking, however, is the Oracle also getting out of the market because he believes it is overheating? The famed “Buffett indicator,” which compares the value of all listed stocks to the size of the U.S economy, suggests that’s possible.
Using the Wilshire 5000 Index as a proxy, The Wall Street Journal calculated that number to be roughly 200%, indicating the market is more stretched than at the peak of the tech bubble.
In the event of a market downturn, Berkshire would certainly have the funds to capitalize on opportunities. The Journal noted Buffett's company could fork over a check for all but 25 or so of America’s most-valuable listed corporations, including names like Walt Disney, Goldman Sachs, Pfizer, General Electric, and AT&T.
While Buffett may be sitting out the stock rally due to inflated valuations, it's also possible he is just waiting. As the Journal reported, at the 2023 annual meeting, he said “What we’d really like to do is buy great businesses. If we could buy a company for $50 billion or $75 billion, $100 billion, we could do it.” There are simply not many companies of that size in play, so that could also explain why Berkshire has not been spending.
The Journal noted the company's cash hoard is likely a reflection of how its current situation prevents it from making major moves. Berkshire would currently have to pay a premium of 20% or more in any sort of takeover. Meanwhile, the company’s immense size has made it increasingly difficult for Berkshire to replicate its tried-and-true model of deploying its profits to continuously beat the market.
At last year’s annual meeting, Buffett also suggested he would keep more cash on hand to prepare for higher capital gains taxes. The tax increases he believed were imminent, however, might not materialize anytime soon with Trump returning for a second term in the Oval Office.